North Carolina Casinos & Gambling in North Carolina

Cleveland Browns

Division: AFC North
Record: 6 - 10
Introduction
Hey everyone u/goingsouthhiker here to provide you more information than you ever wanted to know about the Cleveland Browns. My first distinct memory as a child is my fathers face in stunned silence as Ernest Byner fumbled at the goaline. I have been gifted through some sick hereditary defect a lifelong love of the Browns. so here you go.

Coaching Changes/GM Changes

Freddie Kitchens Fired
On December 29th, 2019, the Browns fired head coach Freddie Kitchens. This is the culmination of a coaching hire that seemed to be entirely based upon folksy blue collar catch phrases “if you don’t wear brown and orange, you don’t matter” and a good relationship with Baker Mayfield.
Some of Freddie's greatest hits included

4th and 9 - Draw Play
Madden Style 5 WR streaks from your own goal line
Send out the punt team on 4th-and-11 down 17 points in the fourth quarter to the New England Patriots, only to change his mind and take a deliberate false start rather than burn a timeout.
4th and 1 on the goal line and not have Nick Chubb on the field

John Dorsey Fired
On December 31st, 2019, the Browns and general manager John Dorsey mutually agreed to part ways after an up and down tenure that brought in a lot of talent but ultimately the decision to hire Kitchens and some questionable high draft picks sank him.

Kevin Stefanski Hired
On January 13th, 2020, the Browns hired former Minnesota Vikings' offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski as head coach. This is another first time head coach hire for the browns after an exhaustive coaching search. This hire is the one Paul Depodesta of Moneyball Fame banged the table for prior to the promotion of Kitchens so ultimately the nerds won the battle a year too late.

Andrew Berry Hired
On January 27th, 2020, the Browns hired former Philadelphia Eagles' vice president of football operations Andrew Berry as general manager. Berry previously served as the Browns' vice president of player personnel from 2016–18 under Sashi Brown. At age 32, Berry became the youngest general manager in NFL history.
Berry has been considered in league circles as the next great rising front office star even from his early days in Indianapolis. Ivy league educated and an analytics darling now paired again with Depodesta the Browns will be heavy into analytics and efficiency in their decision making.

Alex Van Pelt Hired
On January 29th 2020, the Browns hired former Cincinnati Bengals' quarterbacks coach Alex Van Pelt as offensive coordinator. Van Pelt, who served as offensive coordinator for the Buffalo Bills in 2009, replaced Todd Monken, who was not retained by Stefanski.
Nobody is quite sure who will be calling plays on game day, The one thing going for this hire is when Van Pelt was the QB Coach for Green Bay Aaron Rodgers was super angry about Van Pelt being fired so there is that.

Joe Woods Hired
On February 7th 2020, the Browns hired former San Francisco 49ers' defensive backs coach Joe Woods as defensive coordinator. Woods, who previously served as the defensive coordinator for the Denver Broncos from 2017–18, replaced Steve Wilks, who was not retained by Stefanski
Woods is a man of mystery he has coached just about every scheme in existence and has given the ever popular "We will tailor our defense to our personnel" answer every time somebody tries to get anything out of him in regards to what he plans to run in Cleveland.

Free Agency
Players lost/cut

Player	Position	New Team
Joe Schobert	LB	Jacksonville
Christian Kirksey	LB	Green Bay
Eric Kush	G	Las Vegas
Demetrius Harris	TE	Chicago
T.J. Carrie	CB	Indianapolis
Damarious Randall	S	Las Vegas
Greg Robinson	T	Prison
Rickey Seals Jones	TE	Kansas City
Adarius Taylor	LB	Released
Morgan Burnett	S	Released
Eric Murray	S	Houston

Going into the 2019 season the Browns defense had a lack of quality depth at LB and Safety. So naturally the first thing the Browns do in Free Agency is let go the remaining veteran players at LB and Safety. I can't say for certain this was a bad thing as you will see below.

Top Losses

Joe Shobert LB - Was a tackling machine and rare pro bowler on this team, however too many of those tackles were made 8-10 yards downfield on run plays. His coverage skills were raw as well so I get not paying him big money.
Christian Kirksey LB - This one hurts a bit not due to production on the field as Kirko was hurt a lot! But more so as he was that beloved master of the Dawg Check and was a great team guy.
Damarious Randall S - A solid player who the Browns converted back to Safety but was always a bit of a headcase. He will be remembered best as the player who intercepted a Bengals pass and handed the ball to Hue Jackson on the Bengals sideline.

Players Signed/Brought Back

Player	Position	Contract
Kareem Hunt	RB	1yr $3.25M
Case Keenum	QB	3yr $18M
Andy Janovich	FB	Trade w/Broncos
Jack Conklin	T	3yr $42M
Austin Hooper	TE	4yr $44M
Karl Joseph	S	1yr $2.5M
Andrew Billings	DL	1yr $3.5M
Kevin Johnson	CB	1yr $3.5M
Andrew Sendejo	S	1yr $2.5M
Evan Brown	C	No Details
Donovan Olumba	CB	No Details
JoJo Natson	WR	1yr $1M
BJ Goodson	LB	1yr $2.4M
Chris Hubbard	T	Restructured
Adrian Clayborn	EDGE	1yr $2.4M
Olivier Vernon	EDGE	Restructured
Myles Garrett	EDGE	So Much Money
Rashard Higgins	WR	1yr 910k

Man this is a list... Ok so there were very few holes on Offense going into Free Agency but the ones that stood out were both tackles and depth at tight end. The Browns ultimately solved one tackle spot and TE really early in Free Agency with what most considered the best available players at their position.
On the Defensive side we had a open call for any experienced body who wanted to take a 1 year prove it deal. So much depth added via players that fell through the cracks on their former team.

Top Signings

Jack Conklin RT - The top right tackle in free agency, had a nice season for the titans after coming off a major injury the year before. Can be a All-Pro caliber RT if healthy. Really filled a huge need.
Austin Hooper TE - or "HooooooP" As the falcons fans tell me I am to call him. Filled a big need for reliable catches at the TE position. With David Njoku in the dog house, unable to catch anything, and now asking for a trade this is a big get for the Browns.
Andy Janovich FB - By far my personal favorite signing. Acquired in a trade with the Broncos he is one of the best pure Fullbacks left in the game. I expect him to be a Fan Favorite quickly. There is nothing more that Cleveland Fans adore than elevating a former Broncos fullback to Legendary status.(See Peyton Hillis)
Case Keenum - Browns fans all hope that the Baker Mayfield of last year was a product of really bad coaching, however Keenum can win games in the NFL and is a familiar face to new coach Stefanski having had a career year with Minnesota with Stefanski as his QB coach. I am much more confident in having Keenum as the backup than Garrett Gilbert.
New Contracts - The Browns have ensured Myles Garrett will be a Brown for a long while, placed a 2nd round tender on former rushing champ Kareem hunt, and after briefly flirting with Clowney decided to restructure Olivier Vernon to a much better contract number befitting his oft injured yet surprisingly productive season.

Draft - Cribbed from u/Marzman315 with permission who did a very excellent defending the draft and I agree with it in it's entirety. The Grades are mine.

Round	Player	Position
1.10	Jedrick Wills	T
2.44	Grant Delpit	S
3.88	Jordan Elliott	DT
3.97	Jacob Phillips	ILB
4.115	Harrison Bryant	TE
5.160	Nick Harris	C
6.187	Donovan Peoples-Jones	WR

1.10 - Jedrick Wills Jr., Offensive Tackle Alabama Grade A
As expected, the Browns used the tenth overall pick on a tackle. The tackle turned out to be Jedrick Wills Jr., blindside blocker for Tua Tagovailoa. The former four star high school prospect started all 28 games for the Crimson Tide over his sophomore and and junior years. As a second team All-American and first team All-SEC player, he paved the way for Alabama's elite offense with his quick feet, smooth redirection, extremely powerful anchor and strength, and absolutely punishing punch.
This pick was overwhelmingly approved of by analysts both internally and externally. Joe Thomas released a reaction video that was enthusiastic to say the least. He made it clear that Wills was his ideal target for the Browns at 10th overall. The front office and coaching staff made it known that Wills was their priority target going into the draft, and were entertaining the possibility of trading up for him, but ultimately the draft board fell their way and they got their man at 10.
The only negative to the drafting of Wills is that he has only played right tackle in his college career, and given the free agent signing of right tackle Jack Conklin, Wills is going to be expected to transition to left tackle to start his NFL career. Joe Thomas also gave input on this, and stated that while the transition is difficult it is easier to do early in your career, and that he would personally take Wills under his wing and mentor him. Between Joe Thomas's guidance and the coaching of veteran offensive line coach Bill Callahan, not to mention the phenomenal talent of Wills, the transition should be doable for Wills with a minimum of serious difficulty. The protection of franchise QB Baker Mayfield is of paramount importance, and this selection reflects that.

2.44 - Grant Delpit, Safety LSU Grade A
Most Browns fans anticipated that a safety specializing in coverage would be a priority target on day 2. With replacing Damarious Randall a necessity, the Browns zeroed in on LSU standout Grant Delpit. Boasting phenomenal range, excellent ball skills, and tremendous athleticism for the position, he brings an impressive skill set to the team.
Once considered a top 15 to top 20 pick, injuries and questions about tackling caused his value to drop a bit over the season. His broken clavicle in 2018 likely led to a hesitation in committing fully to tackles, and his production in that sense dropped in 2019. Despite some questions about open field tackling, Delpit's football IQ, versatility, and ball skills are enough to excite Browns fans into thinking that they found a solid starter.

3.88 - Jordan Elliot, Defensive Tackle Missouri Grade B
In a post draft interview, Browns Chief Strategist Paul DePodesta revealed that obtaining 2021 draft capital was a priority coming into the draft. Depth along the defensive line has been an issue for the Browns for some time. Both of these issues were addressed with the Browns first pick in the third round.
Jordan Elliot is well known in the scouting community for being the darling prospect of Pro Football Focus, who consistently rated him as a first round prospect. While he lacks some power and length, he has a lightning quick first step and fluid pass rushing skills. His skill set doesn't exactly project him to be an every down player, but he can be a strong gap penetrating 3T rotating along the Browns defensive line.

3.97 - Jacob Phillips, Linebacker LSU Grade C Minus
Joe Shobert led the Browns in tackles in two of the last three seasons. Replacing that production was certainly a concern of the Browns. Phillips is an athletic linebacker that led a powerhouse LSU team in tackles. He is strong against the run, and plays fast and strong with solid instincts.
Phillips likely may not replace Shobert's pass coverage, as coverage skills were a clear negative on Phillips' scouting report. But as far as reliable tackling goes Phillips can contribute early, especially on special teams and base defense.

4.115 - Harrison Bryant, Tight End Florida Atlantic Grade A
Kevin Stefanski's offense notably uses multiple tight end sets and 12 personnel. Harrison Bryant is a very exciting receiving threat at the TE position. He projects mainly as a depth player behind Austin Hooper and David Njoku (if he remains on the team) currently while he develops his overall game, but he likely sees the field a bit as a rookie. He doesn't bring much to the table as far as blocking goes, but there is absolutely some exciting upside here.

5.160 - Nick Harris, Guard/Center Washington Grade C
While the Browns O-line was the subject of well deserved criticisms in 2019, the interior of the line was quietly fairly solid. Left guard Joel Bitonio is among the best in the league at his position and Center JC Tretter is a pro bowl caliber player. Wyatt Teller was unspectacular but played well enough to bring a bit of stability to the position. Lacking at the interior o-line was any sort of depth.
With years of experience at guard and center, Nick Harris will add solid depth and may compete with Teller for the starting right guard spot. He is a smart and nimble pass blocker, and while he doesn't have ideal size for the position (6'1" 300 LB) he uses his low center of gravity effectively to secure a solid base.

6.187 - Donovan Peoples-Jones, Wide Receiver Michigan Grade A (upside)
Wide receiver was sneakily a bit of a need for the Browns going into the 2020 draft. Odell Beckham Jr and Jarvis Landry are among the best 1/2 starters in the NFL, but after them the depth chart is thin.
Peoples-Jones is a perfect prospect to gamble on. He showed flashes of phenomenal play while at Michigan, and was considered at one point to be a future first round pick and NFL star. Injuries and abysmal QB play severely hindered his college career. His production did not come close to matching his talent. He is athletic, runs clean routes, gets solid separation, and is good with the ball in his hands. There is a lot of talent here that can be developed.

Undrafted Free Agents:
Soloman Ajayi, Linebacker, Liberty
Elijah Benton, Safety, Liberty
Ja'Marcus Bradley, Wide Receiver, Louisiana
Tony Brown, Wide Receiver, Colorado
Kevin Davidson, Quarterback, Princeton
Drake Dorbeck, Offensive Tackle/Guard, Southern Mississippi
A.J. Green, Cornerback, Oklahoma State
Brian Herrion, Runningback, Georgia
Jameson Houston, Cornerback, Baylor
Benny LeMay, Runningback, Charlotte
Jovante Moffit, Safety, Middle Tennessee
George Obinna, Defensive End, Sacremento State
Alex Taylor, Offensive Tackle, South Carolina State
Jeffrey Whatley, Defensive Tackle, South Alabama
Nate Wieting, Tight End, Iowa

Going Forward:
You will have a hard time finding a Browns fan who did not love this draft. They filled all of their pressing needs without reaching, were savvy navigating the board with trades, and acquired 2021 draft picks. The Browns earned one of only four A+ grades from PFF. While the roster is not without some holes, particularly at linebacker, this is a team that is built to compete. With improvements on the offense that will hopefully come with better coaching and a brand new O-line, the Browns are absolutely in a better position this year than last

Projected 53 Man Roster (starters in bold):
OFFENSE:
QB - Baker Mayfield, Case Keenum (2)
RB - Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, Dontrelle Hilliard, (5)
FB - Andy Janovich (6)
WR - Odell Beckham Jr., Jarvis Landry, Rashard Higgins, Taywan Taylor, Donovan Peoples-Jones, JoJo Natson (12)
TE - Austin Hooper, David Njoku, Harrison Bryant (15)
OT - Jedrick Wills Jr. (LT), Jack Conklin (RT), Chris Hubbard, Drew Forbes (19)
OG - Joel Bitonio (LG), Wyatt Teller (RG), Colby Gossett (22)
C - JC Tretter, Nick Harris (24)

DEFENSE:
DE - Myles Garrett, Olivier Vernon, Adrian Clayborn, Chad Thomas (28)
DT - Sheldon Richardson, Larry Ogunjobi, Andrew Billings, Jordan Elliot, Daniel Ekuale (33)
LB - Mack Wilson, Sione Takitaki, BJ Goodson, Jacob Phillips, Jermaine Grace, Tae Davis (39)
CB - Denzel Ward, Greedy Williams, Kevin Johnson, Terrance Mitchell, Donnie Lewis Jr., Tavierre Thomas (45)
SS - Karl Joseph, J.T. Hassell (47)
FS - Grant Delpit, Andrew Sandejo, Sheldrick Redwine (50)
SPECIALISTS
K - Austin Seibert (51)
P - Jamie "Scottish Hammer" Gillan (52)
LS - Charley Hughlett (53)

What to expect in 2020

QB Grade: Incomplete
Baker Mayfield - This is the wildcard for the entire team. There is arguably not a better supporting cast in the league for a Quarterback. Assuming at minimum competent coaching there is no excuse for Mayfield going into year 3. There will be a long leash I am sure but Keenum is waiting in the wings if Mayfield looks like he did last year as opposed to the record setter he was in year 1.
As goes the arm of Mayfield so goes the Browns Playoff hopes.

RB Grade: A+++
Nick Chubb - Quiet, professional, will run you over and laugh at your pitiful tackle attempts. Nick Chubb is a beast, lead the league in yards after contact and nearly won the rushing title. In this new RB friendly system with an improved O-Line and an actual fullback Chubb is going to eat.

Kareem Hunt - It's not often that your backup running back is also a league rushing champion. Last year after serving his suspension he came in and made quite a few spectacular plays in the passing game and showed he still had that spark in the running game. This one Two punch is going to be fun to watch!

Pass Catchers WTE Grade: A
Goodness where to start... This might be an unpopular take but Jarvis Landry is the Best WR on this team and a top 5 pass catcher in the league. He has the most catches ALL TIME in a players first 6 seasons in the league. No longer relegated to slot duties as he was in Miami he had is best year in 2019.

Both Landry and OBJ went over 1000 yards last year which is stunning to me because it felt like both were under utilized all year long. With an increased emphasis on the running game and a deceptive scheme there should be a lot of wide open receivers for the Browns this year
Adding in a third down catch machine in Austin Hooper oh my.. The room is stacked.

Offensive Line Grade: B Minus
The OL has been a major issue at the tackle spot since Joe Thomas retired. It now feels like the Browns have the complete package assuming Wills can make the transition to LT in this super strange offseason. The interior is still super solid. There will be a lot riding on the rookie.

Defensive Line A Minus
Oh noooooo MYLES!!!! How different would 2019 have been had Myles Garrett kept his cool. Fresh off signing a new mega deal Myles Garrett needs to be the great pass rusher he has been in his first few seasons. He was averaging a sack per game before the suspension and should easily go into double digit sacks this season as well.
Olivier Vernon when healthy is a QB pressure machine but he has problems staying on the field. When he is playing though He and Myles make a great bookend.
The interior is solid with Sheldon Richardson and Larry O, in the middle. This will probably be Richardson's last year with the Browns so I expect him to show out to push for that one last contract.

Linebackers Grade: I was told there would be no math
Do I believe in Mack Wilson? Ask me on a day he writes a fired up hype tweet and I will say he is going to be a stud. In the quiet times though I think to myself boy I hope the opposing team does not have a decent tight end because our LB core is going to get burned. I don't know what to think of the rest of the room as it is totally shuffled. Maybe Takitaki is something more than a special teamer? Was B.J. Goodson a diamond waiting to be polished?
The Browns need Takitaki, Wilson, and Phillips to grow up fast in this defense. Goodson has been a part-time player in his career and should have the opportunity to get more playing time than he has had to date in his career. With a one-year prove-it deal, Goodson has the motivation to show that he deserves a multi-year deal.
This is by far on paper the weak point of this team.

Cornerback Grade: B
This is the Ward and Greedy Show. Ward is occasionally dinged up but most of the time he is a shut down corner. Super young and is a willing tackler if a bit reckless in his form. Ward has the potential to be a top 5 CB in the league.
Greedy Williams had a decent season on the other side when he got into the game but it is his spot full time now and he needs to step up. The talk when he was drafted was he could not tackle. (Much like Delpit this year) but he showed he was more than willing to tackle and even come up and rush the passer and play the run when needed. With Ward on the other side he is going to be targeted a LOT.

Safety Grade: D
Who the hell knows.. Really. I know I said that Linebacker was the weak point but man Safety is as much of a question. Karl Joseph is a Thumper and with that he ends up injured a bit. Delpit has huge potential but is a rookie at FS and supposedly has tackling issues. Outside of those two you have Sendejo in his 11th year in the league and Sheldrick Redwine who was a beast in college but has yet to really prove himself in the league.
Here is hoping Delpit lives up to his potential because man this is a thin group.

Specialists Grade: B
Scottish Hammer That is all... The Punter might be the best form tackler on the team hopefully he does not have to do that this season. Or we can stick him in at Linebacker.
But seriously things stabilized with two rookie kickers last year and they both look serviceable. Jojo Natson was brought in to do one thing and that is to return kicks.

Training Camp Battles

On Offense there is very little up for grabs maybe who wins the 3rd WR spot but given Higgins relationship with Mayfield it is his job to lose.
On Defense a lot of the battle is going to be who shows up at LB and Safety as discussed above. there are slim pickings at both positions and really the only people who seem to be safe are Mack Wilson just due to the playing time he got last season and Karl Joseph just based upon his experience in the league.

Scheme Descriptions

Offense: Kevin Stefanski as Minnesota’s offensive coordinator in 2019 produced an offense determined to run the ball and crush teams with play-action. Under the watchful eye of consultant Gary Kubiak he installed a Wide Zone blocking scheme that is time tested and very OL and RB friendly. It is considered a Run first offense which should play right into the Browns strengths. If Mayfield can tighten up the play action fake game the Wide outs should feast as well.

Defense - Who knows? I am not even sure Joe Woods knows yet what type of Defense the Browns will run. During his tenure as the Denver Broncos defensive coordinator he ran a Base 3-4 Under defense. During his time with the Minnesota Vikings the team ran a base 4-3 which is also the case for the San Francisco 49ers defense this past season.
When asked Woods usually replies with something along the lines of "it's a secret"
Based on the Browns current roster,the preference would be an attacking 4-3 scheme given the strength on the defensive line and questionable linebacker core.

Season Predictions
It is an impossible task to predict a Browns season. Typically you could say 3 - 5 wins and chances are you would be right. This season with a new head coach, no preseason, maybe no training camp who the hell knows. It is a weak schedule on paper.
So instead of going game by game I am going to make some bold predictions.

The Browns will make the playoffs
Nick Chubb will win the rushing title
Jarvis Landry and OBJ will both go over 1000 yards again
The Browns will split all of the division games
The Steelers, Ravens, and Art Modell still suck
Final Record 10-6 with a Wild Card game win

Thank You's and Final Thoughts
If you read all this you are a better person than I. Big thanks to u/Marzman315 for lending me the draft section. Also a hearty Woof Woof to u/Usuallyrelevant who keeps us entertained over at Browns
Also the crew at LakeErieBros for sharing together our collective misery.
And finally I want to thank the Bull City Browns Backers in Durham NC for being awesome and showing up to every game with hope in your heart and unwavering dedication.

I did not hear from the non fan for the post so maybe we can add it later.

Link To Hub

Cleveland Browns 2020 Offseason Review

I was tasked to write the offseason review for NFL so here it is

Cleveland Browns

4th and 9 - Draw Play
Madden Style 5 WR streaks from your own goal line
Send out the punt team on 4th-and-11 down 17 points in the fourth quarter to the New England Patriots, only to change his mind and take a deliberate false start rather than burn a timeout.
4th and 1 on the goal line and not have Nick Chubb on the field

Player	Position	New Team
Joe Schobert	LB	Jacksonville
Christian Kirksey	LB	Green Bay
Eric Kush	G	Las Vegas
Demetrius Harris	TE	Chicago
T.J. Carrie	CB	Indianapolis
Damarious Randall	S	Las Vegas
Greg Robinson	T	Prison
Rickey Seals Jones	TE	Kansas City
Adarius Taylor	LB	Released
Morgan Burnett	S	Released
Eric Murray	S	Houston

Player	Position	Contract
Kareem Hunt	RB	1yr $3.25M
Case Keenum	QB	3yr $18M
Andy Janovich	FB	Trade w/Broncos
Jack Conklin	T	3yr $42M
Austin Hooper	TE	4yr $44M
Karl Joseph	S	1yr $2.5M
Andrew Billings	DL	1yr $3.5M
Kevin Johnson	CB	1yr $3.5M
Andrew Sendejo	S	1yr $2.5M
Evan Brown	C	No Details
Donovan Olumba	CB	No Details
JoJo Natson	WR	1yr $1M
BJ Goodson	LB	1yr $2.4M
Chris Hubbard	T	Restructured
Adrian Clayborn	EDGE	1yr $2.4M
Olivier Vernon	EDGE	Restructured
Myles Garrett	EDGE	So Much Money
Rashard Higgins	WR	1yr 910k

Man this is a list... Ok so there were very few holes on Offense going into Free Agency but the ones that stood out were both tackles and depth at tight end. The Browns ultimately solved one tackle spot and TE really early in Free Agency with what most considered the best available players at their position.
On the Defensive side we had a open call for any experienced body who wanted to take a 1 year prove it deal. So much depth added via players that fell through the cracks on their former team.

Top Signings

Jack Conklin RT - The top right tackle in free agency, had a nice season for the titans after coming off a major injury the year before. Can be a All-Pro caliber RT if healthy. Really filled a huge need.
Austin Hooper TE - or "HooooooP" As the falcons fans tell me I am to call him. Filled a big need for reliable catches at the TE position. With David Njoku in the dog house, unable to catch anything, and now asking for a trade this is a big get for the Browns.
Andy Janovich FB - By far my personal favorite signing. Acquired in a trade with the Broncos he is one of the best pure Fullbacks left in the game. I expect him to be a Fan Favorite quickly. There is nothing more that Cleveland Fans adore more than elevating a former Broncos fullback to Legendary status.(See Peyton Hillis)
Case Keenum - Browns fans all hope that the Baker Mayfield of last year was a product of really bad coaching, however Keenum can win games in the NFL and is a familiar face to new coach Stefanski having had a career year with Minnesota with Stefanski as his QB coach. I am much more confident in having Keenum as the backup than Garrett Gilbert.
New Contracts - The Browns have ensured Myles Garrett will be a Brown for a long while, placed a 2nd round tender on former rushing champ Kareem hunt, and after briefly flirting with Clowney decided to restructure Olivier Vernon to a much better contract number befitting his oft injured yet surprisingly productive season.

Draft - Cribbed from u/Marzman315 with permission who did a very excellent defending the draft and I agree with it in it's entirety. The Grades are mine.

Round	Player	Position
1.10	Jedrick Wills	T
2.44	Grant Delpit	S
3.88	Jordan Elliott	DT
3.97	Jacob Phillips	ILB
4.115	Harrison Bryant	TE
5.160	Nick Harris	C
6.187	Donovan Peoples-Jones	WR

1.10 - Jedrick Wills Jr., Offensive Tackle Alabama Grade A
As expected, the Browns used the tenth overall pick on a tackle. The tackle turned out to be Jedrick Wills Jr., blindside blocker for Tua Tagovailoa. The former four star high school prospect started all 28 games for the Crimson Tide over his sophomore and and junior years. As a second team All-American and first team All-SEC player, he paved the way for Alabama's elite offense with his quick feet, smooth redirection, extremely powerful anchor and strength, and absolutely punishing punch.
This pick was overwhelmingly approved of by analysts both internally and externally. Joe Thomas released a reaction video that was enthusiastic to say the least. He made it clear that Wills was his ideal target for the Browns at 10th overall. The front office and coaching staff made it known that Wills was their priority target going into the draft, and were entertaining the possibility of trading up for him, but ultimately the draft board fell their way and they got their man at 10.
The only negative to the drafting of Wills is that he has only played right tackle in his college career, and given the free agent signing of right tackle Jack Conklin, Wills is going to be expected to transition to left tackle to start his NFL career. Joe Thomas also gave input on this, and stated that while the transition is difficult it is easier to do early in your career, and that he would personally take Wills under his wing and mentor him. Between Joe Thomas's guidance and the coaching of veteran offensive line coach Bill Callahan, not to mention the phenomenal talent of Wills, the transition should be doable for Wills with a minimum of serious difficulty. The protection of franchise QB Baker Mayfield is of paramount importance, and this selection reflects that.

2.44 - Grant Delpit, Safety LSU Grade A
Most Browns fans anticipated that a safety specializing in coverage would be a priority target on day 2. With replacing Damarious Randall a necessity, the Browns zeroed in on LSU standout Grant Delpit. Boasting phenomenal range, excellent ball skills, and tremendous athleticism for the position, he brings an impressive skill set to the team.
Once considered a top 15 to top 20 pick, injuries and questions about tackling caused his value to drop a bit over the season. His broken clavicle in 2018 likely led to a hesitation in committing fully to tackles, and his production in that sense dropped in 2019. Despite some questions about open field tackling, Delpit's football IQ, versatility, and ball skills are enough to excite Browns fans into thinking that they found a solid starter.

3.88 - Jordan Elliot, Defensive Tackle Missouri Grade B
In a post draft interview, Browns Chief Strategist Paul DePodesta revealed that obtaining 2021 draft capital was a priority coming into the draft. Depth along the defensive line has been an issue for the Browns for some time. Both of these issues were addressed with the Browns first pick in the third round.
Jordan Elliot is well known in the scouting community for being the darling prospect of Pro Football Focus, who consistently rated him as a first round prospect. While he lacks some power and length, he has a lightning quick first step and fluid pass rushing skills. His skill set doesn't exactly project him to be an every down player, but he can be a strong gap penetrating 3T rotating along the Browns defensive line.

3.97 - Jacob Phillips, Linebacker LSU Grade C Minus
Joe Shobert led the Browns in tackles in two of the last three seasons. Replacing that production was certainly a concern of the Browns. Phillips is an athletic linebacker that led a powerhouse LSU team in tackles. He is strong against the run, and plays fast and strong with solid instincts.
Phillips likely may not replace Shobert's pass coverage, as coverage skills were a clear negative on Phillips' scouting report. But as far as reliable tackling goes Phillips can contribute early, especially on special teams and base defense.

4.115 - Harrison Bryant, Tight End Florida Atlantic Grade A
Kevin Stefanski's offense notably uses multiple tight end sets and 12 personnel. Harrison Bryant is a very exciting receiving threat at the TE position. He projects mainly as a depth player behind Austin Hooper and David Njoku (if he remains on the team) currently while he develops his overall game, but he likely sees the field a bit as a rookie. He doesn't bring much to the table as far as blocking goes, but there is absolutely some exciting upside here.

5.160 - Nick Harris, Guard/Center Washington Grade C
While the Browns O-line was the subject of well deserved criticisms in 2019, the interior of the line was quietly fairly solid. Left guard Joel Bitonio is among the best in the league at his position and Center JC Tretter is a pro bowl caliber player. Wyatt Teller was unspectacular but played well enough to bring a bit of stability to the position. Lacking at the interior o-line was any sort of depth.
With years of experience at guard and center, Nick Harris will add solid depth and may compete with Teller for the starting right guard spot. He is a smart and nimble pass blocker, and while he doesn't have ideal size for the position (6'1" 300 LB) he uses his low center of gravity effectively to secure a solid base.

6.187 - Donovan Peoples-Jones, Wide Receiver Michigan Grade A (upside)
Wide receiver was sneakily a bit of a need for the Browns going into the 2020 draft. Odell Beckham Jr and Jarvis Landry are among the best 1/2 starters in the NFL, but after them the depth chart is thin.
Peoples-Jones is a perfect prospect to gamble on. He showed flashes of phenomenal play while at Michigan, and was considered at one point to be a future first round pick and NFL star. Injuries and abysmal QB play severely hindered his college career. His production did not come close to matching his talent. He is athletic, runs clean routes, gets solid seperation, and is good with the ball in his hands. There is a lot of talent here that can be developed.

Undrafted Free Agents:
Soloman Ajayi, Linebacker, Liberty
Elijah Benton, Safety, Liberty
Ja'Marcus Bradley, Wide Receiver, Louisiana
Tony Brown, Wide Receiver, Colorado
Kevin Davidson, Quarterback, Princeton
Drake Dorbeck, Offensive Tackle/Guard, Southern Mississippi
A.J. Green, Cornerback, Oklahoma State
Brian Herrion, Runningback, Georgia
Jameson Houston, Cornerback, Baylor
Benny LeMay, Runningback, Charlotte
Jovante Moffit, Safety, Middle Tennessee
George Obinna, Defensive End, Sacremento State
Alex Taylor, Offensive Tackle, South Carolina State
Jeffrey Whatley, Defensive Tackle, South Alabama
Nate Wieting, Tight End, Iowa

Going Forward:
You will have a hard time finding a Browns fan who did not love this draft. They filled all of their pressing needs without reaching, were savvy navigating the board with trades, and acquired 2021 draft picks. The Browns earned one of only four A+ grades from PFF. While the roster is not without some holes, particularly at linebacker, this is a team that is built to compete. With improvements on the offense that will hopefully come with better coaching and a brand new O-line, the Browns are absolutely in a better position this year than last

Projected 53 Man Roster (starters in bold):
OFFENSE:
QB - Baker Mayfield, Case Keenum (2)
RB - Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, Dontrelle Hilliard, (5)
FB - Andy Janovich (6)
WR - Odell Beckham Jr., Jarvis Landry, Rashard Higgins, Taywan Taylor, Donovan Peoples-Jones, JoJo Natson (12)
TE - Austin Hooper, David Njoku, Harrison Bryant (15)
OT - Jedrick Wills Jr. (LT), Jack Conklin (RT), Chris Hubbard, Drew Forbes (19)
OG - Joel Bitonio (LG), Wyatt Teller (RG), Colby Gossett (22)
C - JC Tretter, Nick Harris (24)

DEFENSE:
DE - Myles Garrett, Olivier Vernon, Adrian Clayborn, Chad Thomas (28)
DT - Sheldon Richardson, Larry Ogunjobi, Andrew Billings, Jordan Elliot, Daniel Ekuale (33)
LB - Mack Wilson, Sione Takitaki, BJ Goodson, Jacob Phillips, Jermaine Grace, Tae Davis (39)
CB - Denzel Ward, Greedy Williams, Kevin Johnson, Terrance Mitchell, Donnie Lewis Jr., Tavierre Thomas (45)
SS - Karl Joseph, J.T. Hassell (47)
FS - Grant Delpit, Andrew Sandejo, Sheldrick Redwine (50)
SPECIALISTS
K - Austin Seibert (51)
P - Jamie "Scottish Hammer" Gillan (52)
LS - Charley Hughlett (53)

What to expect in 2020

QB Grade: Incomplete
Baker Mayfield - This is the wildcard for the entire team. There is arguably not a better supporting cast in the league for a Quarterback. Assuming at minimum competent coaching there is no excuse for Mayfield going into year 3. There will be a long leash I am sure but Keenum is waiting in the wings if Mayfield looks like he did last year as opposed to the record setter he was in year 1.
As goes the arm of Mayfield so goes the Browns Playoff hopes.

RB Grade: A+++
Nick Chubb - Quiet, professional, will run you over and laugh at your pitiful tackle attempts. Nick Chubb is a beast, lead the league in yards after contact and nearly won the rushing title. In this new RB friendly system with an improved O-Line and an actual fullback Chubb is going to eat.

Kareem Hunt - It's not often that your backup running back is also a league rushing champion. Last year after serving his suspension he came in and made quite a few spectacular plays in the passing game and showed he still had that spark in the running game. This one Two punch is going to be fun to watch!

Pass Catchers WTE Grade: A
Goodness where to start... This might be an unpopular take but Jarvis Landry is the Best WR on this team and a top 5 pass catcher in the league. He has the most catches ALL TIME in a players first 6 seasons in the league. No longer relegated to slot duties as he was in Miami he had is best year in 2019.

Both Landry and OBJ went over 1000 yards last year which is stunning to me because it felt like both were under utilized all year long. With an increased emphasis on the running game and a deceptive scheme there should be a lot of wide open receivers for the Browns this year

Adding in a third down catch machine in Austin Hooper oh my.. The room is stacked.

Offensive Line Grade: B Minus
The OL has been a major issue at the tackle spot since Joe Thomas retired. It now feels like we have the complete package assuming Wills can make the transition to LT in this super strange offseason. The interior is still super solid. There will be a lot riding on the rookie.

Defensive Line A Minus
Oh noooooo MYLES!!!! How different would 2019 have been had Myles Garrett kept his cool. Fresh off signing a new mega deal Myles Garrett needs to be the great pass rusher he has been in his first few seasons. He was averaging a sack per game before the suspension and should easily go into double digit sacks this season as well.
Olivier Vernon when healthy is a QB pressure machine but he has problems staying on the field. When he is playing though He and Myles make a great bookend.
The interior is solid with Sheldon Richardson and Larry O, in the middle. This will probably be Richardson's last year with the Browns so I expect him to show out to push for that one last contract.

Linebackers Grade: I was told there would be no math
Do I believe in Mack Wilson? Ask me on a day he writes a fired up hype tweet and I will say he is going to be a stud. In the quiet times though I think to myself boy I hope the opposing team does not have a decent tight end because our LB core is going to get burned. I don't know what to think of the rest of the room as it is totally shuffled. Maybe Takitaki is something more than a special teamer? Was B.J. Goodson a diamond waiting to be polished?
The Browns need Takitaki, Wilson, and Phillips to grow up fast in this defense. Goodson has been a part-time player in his career and should have the opportunity to get more playing time than he has had to date in his career. With a one-year prove-it deal, Goodson has the motivation to show that he deserves a multi-year deal.
This is by far on paper the weak point of this team.

Cornerback Grade: B
This is the Ward and Greedy Show. Ward is occasionally dinged up but most of the time he is a shut down corner. Super young and is a willing tackler if a bit reckless in his form. Ward has the potential to be a top 5 CB in the league.
Greedy Williams had a decent season on the other side when he got into the game but it is his spot full time now and he needs to step up. The talk when he was drafted was he could not tackle. (Much like Delpit this year) but he showed he was more than willing to tackle and even come up and rush the passer and play the run when needed. With Ward on the other side he is going to be targeted a LOT.

Safety Grade: D
Who the hell knows.. Really. I know I said that Linebacker was the weak point but man Safety is as much of a question. Karl Joseph is a Thumper and with that he ends up injured a bit. Delpit has huge potential but is a rookie at FS and but supposedly has tackling issues. Outside of those two you have Sendejo in his 11th year in the league and Sheldrick Redwine who was a beast in college but has yet to really prove himself in the league.
Here is hoping Delpit lives up to his potential because man this is a thin group.

Specialists Grade: B
Scottish Hammer That is all... The Punter might be the best form tackler on the team hopefully he does not have to do that this season. Or we can stick him in at Linebacker.
But seriously things stabilized with two rookie kickers last year and they both look serviceable. Jojo Natson was brought in to do one thing and that is to return kicks.

Training Camp Battles

On Offense there is very little up for grabs maybe who wins the 3rd WR spot but given Higgins relationship with Mayfield it is his job to lose.
On Defense a lot of the battle is going to be who shows up at LB and Safety as discussed above. there are slim pickings at both positions and really the only people who seem to be safe are Mack Wilson just due to the playing time he got last season and Karl Joseph just based upon his experience in the league.

Scheme Descriptions

Offense: Kevin Stefanski as Minnesota’s offensive coordinator in 2019 produced an offense determined to run the ball and crush teams with play-action. Under the watchful eye of consultant Gary Kubiak he installed a Wide Zone blocking scheme that is time tested and very OL and RB friendly. It is considered a Run first offense which should play right into the Browns strengths. If Mayfield can tighten up the play action fake game the Wide outs should feast as well.

Defense - Who knows? I am not even sure Joe Woods knows yet what type of Defense the Browns will run. During his tenure as the Denver Broncos defensive coordinator he ran a Base 3-4 Under defense. During his time with the Minnesota Vikings the team ran a base 4-3 which is also the case for the San Francisco 49ers defense this past season.
When asked Woods usually replies with something along the lines of "it's a secret"
Based on the Browns current roster,the preference would be an attacking 4-3 scheme given the strength on the defensive line and questionable linebacker core.

Season Predictions
It is an impossible task to predict a Browns season. Typically you could say 3 - 5 wins and chances are you would be right. This season with a new head coach, no preseason, maybe no training camp who the hell knows.
So instead of going game by game I am going to make some bold predictions.

The Browns will make the playoffs
Nick Chubb will win the rushing title
Jarvis Landry and OBJ will both go over 1000 yards again
The Browns will split all of the division games
The Steelers, Ravens, and Art Modell still suck
Final Record 10-6 with a Wild Card game win

I did not hear from the non fan for the post so maybe we can add it later.

Link To Hub

The First Joe Douglas Draft

When Joe Douglas joined the team after the surprising out-of-cycle removal of Mike MacCagnan, I remember the lot of you all (here and in other Jets spaces) celebrating his arrival. I was optimistic too but cautious about celebrating a GM just for existing with a pedigree. However, for as long as I've been a Jets fan (2010-onwards) I haven't seen the Jets draft in the first few rounds in a way that made me believe they knew what they were doing. Well, for the first time I felt a draft process and approach that fulfilled most of my sensibilities.
I'm an analytics follower (and sometimes doer) and I'm going to use that lens to go through the picks, in whatever context comes to mind. In evaluating them, a player isn’t a good pick because they will succeed, they’re a good pick because they can be justified at the time we make them since we don’t know who will succeed. A good process leads to good results over time etc, add in some luck and you get a good team. Anyway, the secret to drafting is to pick the good players.
A reminder that the combine and other testing is just that, neutral ground testing. It doesn’t measure a players athleticism, but it is a measurement of their athleticism.

The Players

1st Round, 11th Overall - T Mekhi Becton, Louisville

Some people wanted Tristan Wirfs, I sort of did too. But there's not enough reasons to dislike Mekhi Becton, and there's plenty of reasons to pick him very high in a draft. Let's start with the profile:
Mekhi, Jets OL, and other first rounder Tackles
Mekhi's gigantic. Compare him to Fant, a great athlete. A ~75th percentile tight end 40 time is 4.66. A ~75th percentile wide receiver 40 time is around 4.47. Those two body types have a .19 difference between their 40 times with what is usually anywhere between 30-40 pounds of difference in weight. Mekhi is .26 behind Fant with 70 pounds of difference. And Fant is 98th percentile in raw 40 time. After adjusting for both of their sizes amongst all potential pass rushers and pass protection, their 40 times are better than 92% of other offensive linemen tested in the combine or pro days since around 2008. Amongst the entire class Wirfs and Willis are the only two that might’ve been a better athlete than him overall. And Becton ran only .05 slower than Willis despite weighing 50 more pounds.
Does any of that matter? Sort of does, sort of doesn't. The offensive and mirroring defensive line are wrestling positions. They wrestle. The rusher is either trying to break through a wall or run around a wall. Although public analytics hasn’t made a strong case for a hard-connection between offensive line success and combine success, from anecdotal experience; lining up an athletic pass rusher against a significantly lesser athlete at offensive lineman has helped very often in my sit/start decisions amongst IDP leagues to great success. So it’s a good sign that at minimum, he should make it harder for opponents to get sacks. And regardless, just picking him makes the line better on principle. It’s going to move the worst tackle down one spot and bring up the possibility of having that player potentially move to guard. Just making the pick makes the line better and that has nothing to do with whether or not Mekhi is actually good.
But I really want to talk about the man’s size. What the fuck is 6’7 360?? It’s ridiculous. Filtering all NFL players to anyone over 6’3” and greater than 345 pounds gives us this list from the player profiler dataset (I don’t know how far back this goes):
Mekhi Comparables
The only player in this list faster than Mekhi is the smallest one- Brandon Brooks, Brooks is also one of the best players here but at the absolute edge of comparisons since he’s 2 inches shorter and nearly 20 pounds lighter. Mekhi’s closest possible comparison on this list at all is Jordan Mailata- a Rugby Convert playing backup tackle for the Philadelphia Eagles. There isn’t another player currently in the NFL with a higher tested speed at a comparable size, and the only one that did played a completely different sport.
Mekhi is an outlier of a player archetype and that’s significant. If you’re choosing players in the draft based on the idea of “filling a need” outliers are not what you want because outliers inherently do not have a clear cookie cutter way of “how to be used” in order to be successful with them. It gives them significant potential advantages and disadvantages that could make them either be the best player in the NFL or the worst. Like, Mekhi’s size has potential for him to lose leverage forever on every single play he faces against an NFL player. But if he’s athletic enough to overcome the leverage issue for his size, then it’s possible he will never lose it. There’s no good idea for how good he will be as a player because there is no comparable to look at him through in the modern game.
Lastly, there’s the question of his on-field skill outside of stats. I don’t know how to evaluate an offensive lineman’s film in a clear and effective way that would make me confident in my analysis but at bare minimum, here’s a game of Mekhi Becton against Florida State in 2018. In his first season starting for Louisville he’s facing an array of pass rushers that most notably include Brian Burns, Panthers first round pick in 2019 (7.5 rookie sacks) from both the Left and Right tackle positions. As his first year starting, there’s many potential issues that could come up from communication to synthesis with the other lineman, but you get a good feel for places where he’s losing and winning on his own. I think he looks pretty good! And that’s a great sign for the outlier potential to swing in the positive way.

2nd Round, 59th Overall - WR Denzel Mims, Baylor

Projecting wide receivers is based on what’s been learned from Fantasy Football. Scoff at it if you want but gambling is the major vehicle through which all sports analytics occurs, hence why Vegas is profitable and the guys doing picks on TV are not. Most of you already know that so let’s move on;
Denzil Mims Profile
I can’t remember the last time the Jets picked a wide receiver that checked the boxes. Mims’ best comparable on PlayerProfiler (don’t take the comp too literally) is Chris Godwin, who brings up a small trauma for when we picked Ardarius Stewart over him not long ago. Godwin’s profile is very similar to Mims with the exception of being 2 inches shorter and slightly less athletic but the comparison is not stylistic. it’s only in similarity of how they look in these data points.
Fantasy football has gotten decent enough at finding NFL caliber draft prospects over the past 10 years so we have more certainty here than with the offensive line; and in general the hierarchy of predictive stats have been sorted like this:

Percent of Team Yards/TDs (Dominator Rating in the image above)
Age “Breakout”
Age at Draft
Athleticism/BMI

While the offensive line is a wrestling position, the wide receiver is a position of deception. Athleticism is only necessary to mask your weaknesses at the ‘setup’- think Demaryius Thomas at his peak or think of how much worse Stephen Hill would’ve been if he couldn’t run fast on top of his other issues. We can take a look at the top 2 points in more depth by seeing this year over year breakdown of Mim’s receiving yards as a % of team yards (y) against his age (x). The line in the middle represents the average successful (defined as 1 top 24 fantasy season in the first 3 years) wide receiver’s Percent of Team Receiving Yards at that age.
Mims year by year
Mim’s age 19 year was well ahead of the average successful player and his later seasons hovered just around the average. It’s a good profile! For once in the long time, the Jets have taken a receiver that actually looks like a successful NFL player. The only mark against him is that he’s a rookie having his age 23 season. Age has been predictive in almost every position across the NFL, as younger players tend to have better careers. The reason is not “because the team gets more years out of them”, get that shit out of your head. It’s because the NFL is the top .0001% of all football players in the world and the ones whose brains are quicker to learn its intricacies and enter an NFL caliber workout/diet at a younger age are more likely to be “wired” for the game. A 19 year old freshman dominating college football with only 1 college level training camp is far better than a 22 year old senior doing it for the first time after 4 college training camps and seasons. Mims misses the mark there but not due to failing to make an impact, although it’s weird that Jalen Hurd came in for one season and immediately took his top receiver spot away from him in 2018.
Now, here’s where the potential downsides come up, here’s a list of every NFL Wide Receiver within 1 standard deviation of Denzel Mim’s most significant physical attributes (Height, Weight, BMI, 40 Time) and his skill attributes (Breakout Age, Dominator Rating):
Mim’s Comparables
Not the best list of comparables. Why is it so bad for a productive athletic wide receiver? It looks like Mims is in a body type that the NFL has not utilized well, He fits in every basic mark for a good wide receiver but the combination of similar versions of it have generally failed in the NFL’s previous iterations of these types of receivers. The only one to succeed in this group is Randy Moss, and like the case would be with an outlier in an NFL archetype- he was one of the greatest receivers of all time. Chris Godwin isn’t on this list like he is in the original list because I’m using a filtering system instead of a weighted similarity score that player profiler likely uses.
For my sake, the stylistic comparison for Mims is probably closest to Breshad Perriman of this list for the players I can recognize and from how he looks in some of his college games. Mims body is a bit different than either of theirs, but at least against [Georgia in 2019]() (#1 rated CFB defense) and TCU in 2017 (shadowed mostly by 2020 first rounder Jeff Gladney) he plays in a similar way, with a route tree most identical to an NFL split end wide receiver, a big body meant to set up and take advantage of players out of position, and the athletic ability to exploit separation with his speed. But he isn’t always open, and isn’t always getting open. However, the Baylor offense is not one to take advantage of receivers at full capacity, utilizing them in a schematic way more so than to take advantage of each players ability. Mims for example had something close to 0% of his yardage come from screens, which is unimaginable for a player with his attributes. And after all that, here’s Mims running an array of routes at the senior bowl against other corners, most of which went in the 3rd or 4th round of this years draft.
It’s not the ideal prospect like a Larry Fitzgerald, that’s why he’s in the second round. But with enough check marks on his side this is a good player to draft for a position of need at a position that matters.

3rd Round, 68th Overall - S Ashtyn Davis, California

I’m not going to spend a lot of time on this one, I tried unsuccessfully for my first year into analytics to try and create a model for safeties. Just some sort of regression that could tell me how to judge a safety. Nothing mattered, there was no way to correlate the play of a safety with some college or athletic metric using what I had at the time. So let’s stick to just a quick analysis of this:
Ashtyn Davis will be 24 during the NFL season, a way later age than preferred for an NFL rookie. Age is the only clear cut predictive item across all NFL positions, but it’s never the make or break for a prospect. Davis is clearly a high level athlete because he played Cornerback, Safety, and was a Returner for a ranked team in college football. Multi-position players and multi-sport athletes (He won a title in Hurdling and was a track and field participant?) are already a plus in a general sense of athleticism- but returning is generally a major supporting argument for a player since it implies that the player has a feel for the ball, space, and so on. We’ll see how much any of that helps him as an actual safety.
Davis didn’t do anything at the combine, but was projected to run a sub 4.40. Impressive as an athlete, but does it matter for a player who plays the last line of defense, an inherently reactionary position that requires a synergetic understanding of the players around you? Who knows. Doesn’t seem like it from my time spent on it!! But at minimum being very fast and having a good feel for space are generally what people consider to be the go-to traits of an elite free safety.

3rd Round, 79th Overall - Edge Jabari Zuniga, Florida

Edge rushers have had a lot of weird developments as far as their analytics connection goes. As mentioned with Mekhi, you can get a pretty solid IDP performance out of just checking athleticism of a matchup between two players you expect to see a lot of each other. But a long time ago, a poster named Waldo on some Packers forum came up with a Pass Rusher formula that was quite predictive in finding quality pass rushers, setting some thresholds that players had to pass in order to be good. It was later developed further as Force Players by Justis Mosqueda utilizing player age and production but it’s formula was never made public. There’s also Football Outsiders Sackseer that seems to be pretty good at setting some standards as well but that formula is also private.
Anyway, enough preamble:
Jabari Zuniga Athletic Profile vs Jets and others drafted ahead of him
Jabari has a great speed-size combination and an above average explosiveness, but no agility testing means there’s no way to get his flexibility scores. In my experience, FLX + SPD make up good edge rushers, while explosiveness (EXP) make up great run defenders. In purely athletic terms, he looks fine, possibly even good. Similar to Dante Fowler, which is not to say that is who he is but that a player like him has a successful model in the NFL.
To plug Jabari into the Waldo formula, we’d need that agility data- so I’m putting in the median shuttle and 3 cone time amongst edge rushers with the height/weight within 1 inch and 5 pounds of Jabari. If you, the reader, can find his high school testing numbers please give them to me so I can plug those in instead. Unfortunately, the average does not help him out in the Waldo formula, Jabari scores a 1.29 which is considered “High Risk” aka, unlikely to be an elite NFL edge rusher. The disconnect between the athleticism and Waldo’s formula can be understood by reading the explanation of how the formula works in this forum thread if you’re interested. That doesn’t project well for the future but it’s just a baseline for projection.
However age is usually predictive across all positions and Jabari’s age doesn’t help his argument against the pass rushing formula. He’ll be 23 in season, but that’s why he’s in the 3rd round instead of the 1st. Another mark against him comes from the football outsiders SACKSEER formula which does it’s projections based off a combination of athleticism and college production. One of the surprisingly predictive metrics they’ve found is pass defense rate for edge rushers, and Jabari has 0 across four years, which also does not help his case.
Regardless of all that, I don’t see why he couldn’t be better than some of our current edge rushers.

4th Round, 120th Overall - RB La’Mical Perine, Florida

There are so few running backs in the entirety of the NFL that make a real noticeable difference compared to another running back who would be placed into the same position. 2 years ago people would’ve said it was Todd Gurley, and then CJ Anderson did as well as him on the same team. The year before that it might’ve been our own Le’Veon Bell, whose replacement also walked into a significantly good season before immediately falling apart once the offense around him crumbled. Right now people will say it’s Christian McCaffrey. However his team was losing while feeding him so…
Anyway the point of the matter is by and large the consensus has slowly moved from running backs as an independently skill based position to a lot more of a cog in a greater system that is dependent on a quality offensive line, receiving an efficiency multiplier when supported by a quality passing game, and then receiving another exponential efficiency boost when paired with a play caller that understands timing, the ebb-and-flow of opposing defensive coordinator tendencies, as well as long term play calling strategy. And when the opposite of all of those occur, a player like Le’Veon goes from averaging elite 4.9 YPC to pedestrian 3.2 YPC.
All this is to say then that if a running backs production is so heavily tied to the quality of the team around them and they are not the primary drivers of that production themselves, it’s also quite hard to predict them in terms of successful statistical production using only their own profile. However, there’s a few places where a running back is still valuable independently. One such place has been in their total miss rate (amount of broken tackles + dodged tackles) from year to year. It’s not a significantly high number but essentially last years miss rate can explain 17% of the variance in next years juke rate. That means 83% is not explained by it. Yes, a lot of room for error but surprisingly this is one of the highest running back stats for consistency. Even yards per carry, when sampling all players with at least 75 carries per season, only explains 1% of the variance for yards per carry next year. Because it’s very dependent on the situation.
Unfortunately for the college game, the only available data I can get for that is from PFF’s 2019 season compilation only, which ranks Perine at 156th amongst all college running back prospects for broken tackles. I don’t know if PFF’s methodology contains avoided tackles on top of broken (the difference between a juke and bouncing off a hit) but it doesn’t sell him well in one of the few consistency traits. Let’s look at the man himself next:
La’Mical Perine Profile
Not the best profile. Running back production doesn’t say much for the next level, although you can take a guess that passing game usage in the college level does build a case for passing game usage in the NFL. But athletically, he didn’t test very well. I think anyone who has seen enough running back profiles can tie this already to a JAG Grinder type, which if you’ve watched Perine is almost exactly what he looks like. Big enough to stay up through bad tackling but not agile or talented enough to do anything that surprises you. Even his college team seemed to think that of him since he had to split carries with two other backs every year, one of which did not make it into the NFL and the other a 5th round pick for Carolina. He’s also unfortunately 23 in his first season, which doesn’t give him the small boost age-to-successful production correlation would’ve given him.
Finally, while lack of speed isn’t meaningful to the running backs overall production, a running back in the open field is the only time he holds his destiny fully in his own control. And Perine doesn’t have a lot of it. You won’t see a lot of plays of him beating an angle or splitting some close defenders, he’s just fine. If it were me, I’d just take the fastest running back and hope he knows how to read the line. But, Perine is fine. Uninspiring, but fine.

4th Round, 125th Overall - QB James Morgan, Florida International

If James Morgan doesn’t become a superstar franchise level quarterback out of nowhere then this is the most questionable pick of this years draft. Morgan is another 23 year old quarterback, from a lower level of competition and with no discernible special traits. He was a below average quarterback when he was at Bowling Green State in the MAC conference and an average producer when he transferred to FIU in CUSA. He has no special physical traits at all. Watching him play against Miami in 2018 is a mess. Even against Tulane in 2019 it’s not very pretty. He has a very unnatural exaggeration in his throwing motion, often looking to check down and is working heavily off his pre-snap reads while looking very deer-in-headlights when he’s forced outside of structure. This is the kind of quarterback a coach who thinks ‘just running the scheme right’ is all a QB needs to do would value.
All that aside- Morgan gives very little promise or reason to believe he’s a potential face of the franchise at this moment, nor are the Jets really in need for another face of the franchise. In the most optimal 2020 NFL Season (if it still happens), Morgan would play zero snaps. Which really begs the question of why would you spend a pick on a backup Quarterback? I’m going to level with everyone that this portion here is my own rant rather than analysis, but it won’t matter if your backup is Luke Falk or Mike Glennon or Austin Davis or James Morgan if the players on offense aren’t very good. They’re all screwed. If you want a QB to outplay the lacking offensive roster, they need to be mobile to begin with and/or they need to be a secret elite talent. Repeating what I said before, the draft is the ONLY place you have to pick up an elite talent and every single pick should be made with that in mind. This is not the place to backfill a small hole in your roster, it’s a time to try and find guys you will have to compete with 15 other teams for in Free Agency if you ever wanted to grab them out there.
If Morgan is a secret franchise-caliber player in waiting then by all means this was a genius pick but if he was picked entirely for the purpose of being a backup quarterback, there might not be a more inefficiently silly use of resources than to pick a backup quarterback in the draft. You still have to hope they’re good enough to win games! It doesn’t set the bar lower for the skill level they need to achieve!! Just pick up a free agent next time.

4th Round, 129th Overall - T Cameron Clark, Charlotte

A very MacCagnan pick here and with the previous, Clark does not stand out on his profile. Like with Mekhi, the lack of production metrics for offensive linemen cuts our analysis very short but we can still look into what is available.
Cameron Clark Profile
Cameron’s less athletic in his testing than any other player currently expected to start. And like most of the other players in the Jets draft, he’ll be 23 during the season. So it’s an older small school unathletic (testing wise) prospect. Weirdly enough, he got a combine invite despite being from small school Charlotte, which in the CUSA conference. My guess is it’s because he got to play against Clemson in 2019, an exciting college team with a lot of players that got drafted on it. Someone noticed him while watching one of the players and probably wanted to give him more attention.
Unfortunately that Clemson team has no pass rushers of note (as far as I can tell) but he did also have a game against Tennessee in 2018, where 2020 2nd round pick Darrell Taylor played. Fun fact, that’s who the Seahawks picked when they traded up with us in the second round.
Also unfortunately, he had very few snaps against Taylor but he didn’t have any losses against him that I could notice. Against lesser players he mostly held his own in pass protection with one or two losses, but Clark doesn’t stand out a lot here or in his profile.

5th Round, 158th Overall - CB Bryce Hall, Virginia

Bryce Hall came out of high school as a 2 star prospect and got to start seven games as a freshman cornerback. Is that meaningful? I feel like it is, but I don’t have any proof to back it up. We don’t have any combine testing data for Hall, mostly because the COVID-19 pandemic shut down pro-days early so almost every player without combine data is a black box athlete now. Hall was projected to run a 4.5 from what i’ve found scavenging the internet. It’s not a blazing speed, but at the size it’s pretty good. At his 6’1 203 pound size and with that potential speed, here’s what his comps might’ve looked like within 1 standard deviation of his height, weight, arm length, BMI, and speed:
A Wide Range of Bryce Hall Comparables Due to limited data
That’s right, Bryce Hall could be Jalen Ramsey. He could also be Akeem King. Maybe Juston Burris? Or Justin Bethal? There’s not a lot to gather from here. One interesting note for my sake is that his most often seen stylistic comparison by tape guys has been James Bradberry, who makes it onto this list for physical attributes. Bradberry was also a 2 star recruit out of high school who would come out as a senior. He’s had an alright NFL career. If you’re able to get a player like Bradberry in the 5th round though, that’s pretty good! Another thing that’s pretty good- Bryce Hall had 62 tackles and 21 passes defensed in his junior season. That was the highest number in college football in 2018. It’s not inherently a good sign but it’s certainly notable stats that make you take notice of a player.
Anyway, of the games available from that season on YouTube here’s one against NC State. It’s a team featuring two wide receivers on NFL rosters (Kelvin Harmon, Jakobi Myers) and one QB on an NFL roster (Ryan Finley) although none were taken very high. You can take up your own opinion from watching it, I think he looks decent against the verticals and is hard to evaluate on the rest.

6th Round, 191st Overall - P Braden Mann, Texas A&M

I’m not evaluating a punter.

Overall

We can’t make any certain conclusions from this draft but we have some very good signs for Douglas vision. Athletic players clearly make up a bulk of it and there might even be a significant value placed on the premier NFL passing game positions on offense and defense. Even if you miss there, as long as Douglas recognizes the need to keep dipping into those position groups every year then the team will eventually become good. If they can also come to value age then the team will also be better for it. But one draft doesn’t make a trend.
In any case, if you had to compare this draft to his predecessor purely based on surface level prospects and how many players could be justified- it’s the better than all of them. For the first time in years, I’m only annoyed by a string of 4th round decisions instead of wondering why the fuck the first three rounds just did that??

Week 5 Review Notes

Away	Home	Note
Navy	Memphis	Mem QB White on 3 throws: 127 yards. On other 15: 69. Rating was great but not buying in. Memphis defense helf Navy to 4.7 play, Mem O gained 7.0, but Navy ran 36 more plays.
Duke	Virginia Tech	Duke outgained VT by 50%/play for the game. Duke QB injured up 28 in 4Q, monitor for next week.
Penn State	Maryland	Penn State outgained Maryland 8.4-2.2/play before pulling the starters. 10 of PSU's 40 passes went for 15+ yards. VT 8-20 passing.
San Jose State	Air Force	AF outgained SJSU by 25%/play but 41% through 3Q. SJSU played backup QB Q4, 5-7 for 82, 62 rush yards in garbage time.
Arizona State	California	Cal 1st half w/ starting QB Garbers: 5.1 YPP. 2nd quarter w/ backup Modster: 2.8. Garbers looks to have suffered serious shouldecollarbone area injury. In sling. ASU 5.4/play.
Florida Atlantic	Charlotte	FSU outgained Charlotte by 36%/play. FAU +2 turnovers. Charlotte's explosive run game was held to 3.0/carry w/o sacks and no rushes w/o sacks.
Virginia	Notre Dame	Notre Dame 5.8/rush w/o sacks, UVA 2.8. UVA -4 in turnovers.
Indiana	Michigan State	MSU outgained IU by 25% YPP. IU drives were all or nothing (68, 80, 81, 80, 78 and then basically everything else 3 & outs until final).
Colorado State	Utah State	Very poor offensive game from USU (5.0/play). 7 combined turnovers (4 USU, 3 CSU). CSU limited USU explosive plays.
Middle Tennessee	Iowa	Iowa 644 yards on 80 plays. Outgained MTSU by ~100%YPP before garbage time.
Akron	UMass
Arkansas	Texas A&M	ARK outgained AM by 10% YPP and was +1 in turnovers. 9 of 11 ARK drives began inside own 25.
Arkansas State	Troy	ASU was -2 in turnovers and ran 22 fewer plays but had a 45% YPP advantage. ASU had 6 passes of 30+. Troy's defense. Yikes.
Buffalo	Miami Ohio
BYU	Toledo	Toledo rushed 54x for 257 but was outgained by 25% YPP and was -2 in turnovers. BYU failed to score on 3 drives of 55+ yards.
Central Michigan	Western Michigan
Cincinnati	Marshall	Marshall total inability to throw the ball. 9-25 for 102 through 3 quarters. Cinci outgained Marshall 7.3-3.0 through 3Q.Cinci QB Ridder miight be healthy now (18-22 for 221, 9 rush for 48)
Clemson	North Carolina	Clemson outgained UNC by 24% YPP. Clemson just 5.7 YPP and only 4.5 YPC. Lawrence started 13-16, but finished 5-14 for 52 down the stretch. Final pass was 38-yard TD, though. Clemson is having to blitz more to get same pressure as last year, though, it is getting the pressure (9 tfl in 63 snaps)
Coastal Carolina	Appalachian State	App outgained CC by 30% YPP before garbage time.QB Zac Thomas was incredible, 19-23 for 246 2 TD. Throws of 35, 48, 55.
East Carolina	Old Dominion	ECU won a game with its QB going 8-21, but for 202 yards. ODU QB was 20-30 for 203. ECU 3.3 nonsack carry, odu 2.9. Awful game to watch.
Fresno State	New Mexico State	Fresno built 24-3 1H lead on back of 45% YPP advantage and then just put it in cruise control and failed to cover. Fresno's lack of big play ability is beginning to become a concern through the air. No 20+ passes again.
Georgia Tech	Temple	Not available on statbroadcast
Hawaii	Nevada	Not available on statbroadcast. UNR had 31 passes for 105 yards and 2 picks. Hawaii was 31-36 for 373. Outgaained Hawaii 8.0-3.1 for the entire game.
Houston	North Texas	Houston's offense is surprisingly OK without king in 1 game. Tune 16-20 (for 124). But HOU 7.7 on the ground for 240 nonsack. Hou had KORTD and PRTD. UNC could not run, had to throw 58x for 360.
Iowa State	Baylor	Neither team could run (3.5 nonsack for ISU, 3.8 for Baylor, and neither were that efficient throwing. Matt Campbell ISU kicked FG on 4th and 4 from Bay 32. Missed, bad idea.
Kansas	TCU	Before pulling starters, TCU outgained KU 6.6-1.6 YPP! KU had 26 pass yards on 19 attempts. TCU had 234 on 24. KU 1.7/rush. TCU's passing game probably not figured out, but run game is legit, defense seems improved.
Kansas State	Oklahoma State	No passing game for KSU. 23 for 118. OSU passing nothing special either. But OKSU 392 rush yards on 9.2/YPC nonsack!!
Kentucky	South Carolina	USCe outgained UK by 56%YPP! Kentucky threw 34 passes for 97 yards. USCe rushed 6.1 YPC nonsack. One of the worst QB games you'll ever see combined. Not sure UK QB is healthy.
Louisiana Lafayette	Georgia Southern	ULL had 6.5 YPC nonsack on 42 carries. GASO passing game gave nothing, 37 on 12 attempts. ULL outgained by 97% YPP.
Louisiana Tech	Rice	Neither of these teams are any good at all. They were dead even in sucking in almost every way. Very inefficient passing. LT ran efficiently but only ran 19x.
Minnesota	Purdue	Minnesota's Tanner Morgan was 21-22 for 396! And yet Minnesota continues to run at a 60% clip. This game was not close as score. Through 3rd quarter, UM outgained Purdue by 124%. Sindelar threw 8 passes for 46, rondale moore also hurt
Mississippi State	Auburn	AUb outgained MSU 9.5-5.2 through 3Q. Stevens innjured first drive. Auburn had 9 passes of 20+. Run game was consistent but not that explosive. MSU's defense overwhelmed.
NC State	Florida State	FSU's OL sucks, but FSU hit explosive plays while NC State did not. NCSU 2 plays over 20 yards, FSU had 3 touchdowns of 40+. FSU outgained by 15% YPP
New Mexico	Liberty	Liberty outgained NM by 75% YPP through 3Q. Liberty had RZ fumble and missed fg.
Northern Illinois	Vanderbilt	Game was basically dead even. 6.9-6.2 YPP. Explosive runs from Vanderbilt were a difference.
Northwestern	Wisconsin	Wisconsin outgained NW by 39% YPP (4.3 to 3.1 lol). NW ran 82 plays for 255 yards. Both passing games were awful. Wisky run game held in check (3.9 nonsack)
Ohio State	Nebraska	Game over at the half. OSU 8.4 YPP Neb 2.7 in half. Also +3 turnovers in a half. Even without the turnovers, game over at the half.
Ole Miss	Alabama	Bama 10% YPP advantage through 3Q. Plumlee for Ole Miss is legitimate elite athlete at QB.
Rutgers	Michigan	150% YPP advantage for Michigan before starters pulled. Rutgers QB Sitkowski cannot play. One concern: Michigan 3.6 YPC nonsack.
SMU	South Florida	SMU had 10 sacks! SMU outgained8.4-2.5 in 1H. USF 16 passes 66 yards before garbage time. 20 rushes 30 yards. USF has one of worst OL in all of football.
South Alabama	Louisiana Monroe	ULM outgained USA by 66% YPP. USA kept it close by bleeding clock with run game (5.9 nonsack rush, 35 min possession time).
Stanford	Oregon State	OSU outgained Stanford by 150 yards and 14% YPP. OSU ran for 6.6 nonsack. And lost. Jon Smith iffy coaching tryinglong field goals instead of going for it on 4th down and also punted in opponent territory. Drives of 77, 33, 29, 29 ended in no points. L4 OSU drives ended in TDs.
Texas Tech	Oklahoma	OU outgained by 150% YPP before garbage time. TT had backup QB who is bad thrower. Hurts huge numbers but did throw ball up into coverage/contested severeal times, might be concern if they ever play a good defense.
UAB	Western Kentucky	One of the worst games of the day. 4.3 to 4.2 YPP for UAB/WKU. UAB-4 in turnovers. WKU 1.7 YPC nonsack. WKU passing game reasonably efficient. UAB passing awful (181 on 31 and 4 interceptions).
UCLA	Arizona	Arizona outgained UCLA by 20% YPP. UCLA QB Thompson-Robinson hurt or pulled but bad when he played (33 for 180). UCLA 5.3 YPC nonsack. AZ QB Tate did not play, backup Gunnell might be better stylistic fit for system (29-44 352) but overall downgrade.
UConn	UCF	UCF threw KO in 1Q. Outgained UConn by 250% YPP in 1H (13.2-3.9). UConn no attempt to win game, just tried to run out clock from beginning (27 rush attempts 1H).
UNLV	Wyoming	Wyoming 100% YPP ADV through 40min. Explosive rushes for Wyoming blew game open. Rushes of 41, 34, 44, 34, 59, 22. 4 passes of over 20 as well.
USC	Washington	UW 20% YPP ADV through 3Q in building 28-14 lead. UW +2 turnovers. Neither team threw the ball well, both rushed very well (7 YPC nonsack for USC, 6 for UW), but sonewhgat misleading as USC's run game clicked once down double digits). UW has the plan to beat air raid passing. Fink turned into pumpkin.
UTEP	Southern Miss	USM 100% YPP ADV in building 18-point margin. UTEP can't throw (28 for 168), but run game 7.2 YPC nonsack. Game had only 118 total plays.
Wake Forest	Boston College	BC outgained Wake by 40% YPP! But was -2 in turnovers. Newman had 33 passes and 23 rushes. This game should have been much higher scoring with nearly 1,000 yards and BC should have won. Both teams had bad coaching (3 field goals of less than 22 yards).
Washington State	Utah	Wazu threw 50 passes for 252, woefully inefficient. Wazu -2 TO. Utah finally hit explosive passes (52, 54, 41), and run game was consistent (5.2 nonsack carry)

12(b)(666)

“Dead men tell no tales,” I silently repeated to myself. I had been grilled for hours, playing stupid only got me so far, which is to say it got me absolutely nowhere. But these pigs were getting tired, which meant they were getting sloppy.
“Alright, McRae, we’re locking you in for the night. Maybe some sleep will help clarify your memory.” Their sweating, bloated faces all curled into grimaces of laughter, I imagined the slightly pained look was from that acidic sewer sludge they called coffee burning holes through their intestines.
They grabbed me, yanked me to my feet, and pulled me into cell block C. C for c-ya. C for cyanide, only they didn’t know that. Dumb fuckers. The skinny one uncuffed me after they threw me in, the one that stank of skunked beer slammed the door. The woman above me rocked back and forth, a string of vomit staining what should have been a mattress near her face. I calmly laid down and wiggled the dime-sized piece of thick brown paper from the lining of my bra.
I’d been carrying it for months: the patch. It had a code written on one side, in case safety was to be found. But this was the end of the line for me. I spat on the cyanide patch in my palm with my face down so no one could see, even in the dark. I let it soften some, then took a deep breath and swallowed it down. Waiting for the greatest embrace with the slightly burning, bitter taste dissipating down my throat, I thought back on what had brought me here.
PART 1
“Yeah, whatchu need?”
“Let’s go hunting.” Another text bubble appeared. Attorney Beth McKinney had always been passionate about her work in the legal system, from the first day of law school she showed a rare mix of sheer intelligence, creativity, and grit. It helped that she knew how to use her gifts. She had been practicing for nearly five years now, primarily in family law, although the cases she got from the Department of Social Services seemed to become more and more bleak. She wasn’t sure if it was her outlook that had changed or if they were intentionally tossing her the cases no one else could stomach. Either the clients were shit, the situation was shit, or something else about it was shit. Even when she won, the battle felt unwinnable. But it paid the bills, and she had more years of practice ahead. McKinney just needed the winning case for her to shine.
Attorney Beth McKinney had a consult at 3 PM that afternoon. She’d heard the basics over the phone: her client had been called to assist with a family emergency a few states away three months prior and left her toddler with her cousin. Upon return, the cousin had bonded with the girl, even teaching her to refer to the cousin as “mama”. The cousin had told DSS that the mother was a drug user and had gone on a long bender, and that she didn’t deserve to see her daughter after what she’d put her through. The located the client and assigned her to McKinney for a consultation. It wasn’t that McKinney was forced to handle every case thrown at her, but unless the person in front of her was so reprehensibly vile she couldn’t represent them without bias, she considered it a challenge worth taking.
The client arrived in that forced calm but visibly shaken state you see so often in family and criminal law. She divulged all the details to McKinney, including that her cousin had lost a baby years ago and helped take care of her daughter in the past. She knew she cared for the girl, but she didn’t suspect that she would actually try to steal her in plain sight. McKinney agreed.
A few weeks later in trial, Attorney McKinney was working on a motion to dismiss a Termination of Parental rights petition against her client. When presented with the motion, Judge West took a 20 second look and denied it. McKinney tried to negotiate with her, but there was no budging. Apparently, this was what it took. McKinney silently exited the courtroom past 5 PM, which was a crime unto itself. The beginning of the end had begun.
Beth had a live in boyfriend named JaDonathan, but we all called him JD for short. He was a nice enough guy, he knew she was stressed out and did the best he could to ease the atmosphere at home. He sensed that something was off tonight, though. Beth was quiet and sullen, and even when offered a glass of wine, she snapped at him to leave her alone. She headed toward their home office around 10 PM and locked the door.
From there, the home office was turned into a detective zone. That’s also where I came in. I had helped her dig up some people who didn’t want to be found and discredited a witness or two in the time we worked together, even though we had been friends for much longer. I thought it was fun, she thought it was amusing, so it worked well. She also knew there was only one person who had the skills and single-mindedness to assist in what had to be done.
“Are you at your laptop?” the message read.
She gave me names and wanted short dossiers on each. Eduardo Cruz, Sam Smith, Susan Rinehold, David Dash, Courtney Jones, Stella Wingfield, and Kyle West. What she wanted was simple enough, I worked my magic and presented current addresses, dates of birth, and all the social media I could scour. She thanked me and ordered me a pizza. I didn’t ask for one, but it was a nice gesture for a broke-ass paralegal.
PART 2
Beth didn’t respond for the rest of the night, but it was also midnight before we finished our “hunting”, I figured she wanted to weed through a witness pool or something. I went to bed and didn’t think much of it until I was at work the next day and hadn’t heard anything from her; we needed her in the office that day, so this was highly unusual. While waiting for the other attorneys to return from court, I tuned in to the local news.
Around 3 AM that morning, someone had broken into the home of the Honorable Judge David Dash. He, his wife, and his young daughter were all found dead in their beds, killed by a single bullet to the head the next morning. Well, except for Christine, David’s wife. She presumably woke when her husband was shot, attempted to flee, and was hit in the arm before the gunman shot her in the throat. They were left to die with no trace of the intruder, except one clue: the letter “D” was written on their front door in blood that was later determined to have been from David Dash. The neighborhood was shocked, as security was always at the gate and they thought themselves immune from urban dangers. The story was still developing when the attorneys arrived; I was shook and glad to have some work to do while I cleared out my mind grapes.
Later that afternoon, Beth sent me a text. She’d gotten her colleague, Attorney Belcher, to cover her caseload that afternoon so everything got continued. I set to work sending out the e-mails that would launch a thousand “why was my case continued?” responses from people who did not know how to use Google.
She finally touched base with me again the next night around 9 PM. “One down, six to go.”
“Don’t joke about that shit, especially over text.”
“Not joking. Just the hazards of the industry.” She didn’t respond any further.
The next morning I was sitting down with my coffee and makeup kit to get ready for work, when I saw several friends from law school and in the sidebar “trending” on Facebook indicating another break in at a different home. The Honorable Judge Sam Smith had been found dead, hanging from a noose in his own basement. He was a confirmed bachelor but also an esteemed member of his Mormon congregation, and was known to take a soft touch with domestic violence cases. Everyone was commenting on how shocked they were since he’d always been such an optimistic, helpful person -- two of my friends had even interned with him during our matriculation. A small laceration was found on his inner arm, but no other injuries were apparent. Again, on the front door, a letter had been traced in blood. “I”. It was identified as Sam Smith’s blood.
I called into work that day. Something was going on, and I needed to know what before it went any further. I put on my comfortable clothes, pulled my hair back, and drove to Beth’s house to see what was up.
JD’s car was gone, which was strange. He took contract jobs in California and Maine fairly often, but usually Beth drove him to the airport to save on parking. I figured he was running errands. I rapped on the door several times and heard Beth’s cats yelling at me, so I used the spare key.
Once I was inside, I heard a “Well come the fuck in, then,” from the office room. I walked inside and there were maps, photos, social media names and printed off articles with red yarn, totally classic stalker style. “Aww, yay, Beth! You’ve gone crazy!” I really couldn’t think of what else to say.
She was in similar attire as me, a dark hoodie and yoga pants with boots. There were bottles and bottles of disinfectant, latex gloves, and a few boxes of ammo strewn around the floor. Now, I’ve seen some ratchet decor in my day, but this was unusual, especially considering the carpet had been ripped up and folded against the wall. I didn’t even want to know about that part.
It didn’t take a genius or even a law school dropout like myself to see what was happening, yet it was so surreal I wasn’t quite processing it. I also knew it was time to nope out of this whole mess, I wasn’t about to go to the police myself since I’d technically helped put this in motion. I also couldn’t fake anything about not knowing what was going on. I sent my boss a super apologetic email saying that I still had the flu. When he asked me about Attorney McKinney and if I’d heard anything, I said no, figuring she got the same flu I did. He seemed unhappy but convinced. I drove back to my apartment, loaded up some garbage bags with clothes, laptop, shampoo, all that fun shit, put my cat in his hated crate, and drove to my parents’ house across state lines. I watched the rest unfold over the coming days in the news and on social media.
Every night, it was a new victim, on the last night it was two. First one dead: Judge Wingfield, overdosed on barbiturates, her partner had been out of town on business that week. But on her door was the unmistakable letter, “S”. The investigators found a laceration at Judge Wingfield’s wrist, presumably where the blood came from, since the sample from the blood on the door matched.
Judge Jones: found dead on day 4. Throat slashed with a broken miniature pewter statue of Lady Liberty he kept in his office. “MATERIAL FACT?” was carved across the victim’s torso with the same instrument. Letter “M” scrawled on his door in blood. The mayor imposed a curfew, no one was to be out past 10 PM unless it was a medical emergency.
Judge Cruz: found dead on day 5. Found electrocuted in his own bathtub from his laptop dropped in, and he was bound and gagged with his alma mater sweatshirt, Bierman School of Law. The letter “I” was scrawled on his door. His wife and daughters had come home to find him there, they had now left the state until a culprit was found. State police were actively investigating each neighborhood, but came up with nothing concrete; whoever did this knew how to cover their tracks.
Judge West and Judge Rinehold, found dead together on day 6. Both dead, one from external bleeding, the other from a concussion. Their bodies had not been left like the others; after Rinehold was hit in the head repeatedly with what they believed to be a decorative gavel kept in the main room of the house, the authorities saw the extreme lacerations on West and the blood that pooled in the center of the bed. It was quietly known that the couple had been having an affair for years now, which may have explained why they were found duct taped to the headboard and mattress in coitus. Detective Vance had been assigned to the case, and believed that West had been duct taped while still alive; later testing determined West had opiates in her system at the time of death. West’s death may have been prolonged by the administering of the drugs by the attacker, since no trace of opiate pills were found in either victim’s home after they were searched. The authorities were reluctant to release the details of the case to the public for obvious reasons.
On the door, two letters in blood. “S S”.
PART 3
The town was in emergency lockdown mode by the evening of day 5. I was holed up far enough away to not be a concern, and since I’d left after day 2, I wasn’t a suspect regardless. My mother noted how quiet I was, and tried to ply me with wine. I appreciated the gesture, but she knew enough to tell I was working through something myself, and to let me be. I spent most of the days knitting and trying to escape into Lifetime movies between torturing myself with the local news. They had no leads yet, but it was only the first week with 7 different murders. This might take awhile, I thought.
Judge West had been the one to refuse to dismiss Attorney McKinney’s motion, I remembered that. It made her “Extra Special Episode” death that much less deniable in my mind. Beth had lost it and had no intention of getting it back, she abandoned it like a half broken lawn mower on the side of county road 651.
This wasn’t an unusual occurrence, Judge West was infamous for making things more difficult for defense. It made the coming days no less bizarre.
Still, this was not my story to tell, only to watch and remember.
Several other attorneys had been rumored to hold grudges against Judge West for barely looking through motions before dismissing or granting them, and taking her job a little too comfortably, so they were being treated as possible subjects by the police and rounded up for questioning. None of them were the killer, but their responses ranged from appropriate grief and bewilderment to outright anger at being accused. One attorney in particular, Paul Watson, gave an interview to WFMY News explaining the meaning of a dismissal as well as the termination of parental rights and try to bring the actual legal meaning to the audience. No law professors had been willing to speak about the topic out of fear of being the next target, but Attorney Watson felt it was his duty to the public to try and bring some clarification into seemingly senseless crimes.
Beth didn’t care about any of that, fortunately for Attorney Watson. She hadn’t called me, but I knew someone would soon. I didn’t know why JD hadn’t, but then remembered I had unlisted my number from Facebook after some crazy bitch posted it on a craigslist w4m ad to get back at me for talking to her ex. The phone calls from pervs didn’t completely stop for months, and he didn’t have my number.
I woke up the morning of day 7 and decided to take a walk with my parents’ dogs through the woods. I needed to piece this together instead of anesthetizing myself with television and wine. Attorney Beth McKinney worked hard, she always had, and her ability to empathize with her clients only enhanced her ability to win the sometimes unwinnable cases. She’d never been into violent movies or video games or serial killers and had no medical training, so how would she know how to even begin to pull this off? That usually fell into my jurisdiction, knowing which vein to nick to get the most blood, how much of a drug would put someone under and how much would kill them, the standard things you learn when you grew up working in a clinic and watching way too many horror movies and true crime documentaries.
As of the morning of the 7th, no other murders had been committed, but the police were no closer to finding a prime suspect. Turns out, Judge West had a lot more enemies than people were aware of. Disgruntled defendants, annoyed attorneys, not to mention Judge Rinehold and West’s partners, respectively. Mr. West had been cleared, his alibi was crystal clear -- he’d been seen by at least 30 people watching the football game at a local sports bar the night of the gruesome murders. Mrs. Rinehold was out of town on business of her own at the time, and was only called home when the police had to inform her of her husband’s death. She had been contacted for interviews, but according to the online grapevine weaving its way between Facebook, local news, and Twitter, she’d left for her mother’s house in Philadelphia with the couple’s three young children after giving a statement to the police. Since all the murders were obviously connected, she had been cleared as a suspect and was free to leave.
The dogs began barking in a frenzy and took off farther into the woods, pulling me out of my reverie and forward. They liked to do that when they saw deer because they are very aware of the Lyme epidemic, I presumed. It was starting to get darker and colder, damned daylight savings time. I turned back and made my way to the house, knowing the dogs would eventually follow my steps and outrun me back anyway. The sun had set almost completely by the time I got in, fingers and nose numb from the wind. I wasn’t too much closer to a conclusion, since my grand question was “why?” I knew what she was doing, objectively. I understood it, objectively. It was even kind of funny objectively. But people had died, some of them were good and others weren’t such good people, but they were dead and had families grieving for them who knew far less than I did. I hoped it stayed that way, should a family know their head of household was offed by a maniac simply due to the virtue, or lack thereof, of the profession? I didn’t think so, I wouldn’t have wanted to know. But everyone has their preferences. The why of it still consumed me, clinging to me despite whatever substance I threw at it. There was one understandable answer out of seven. The rest, well, maybe she snapped. Maybe she got a taste for blood or liked watching the life drain out of people’s eyes. Her choice to leave Rinehold and West for the end though, that was interesting. It was almost like she was gambling on getting caught, and if the authorities hadn’t gotten to her by day 6, it was their ineptitude and not hers. The families of the victims could direct their questions to the investigators, instead. It started to come together.
My mother was on the couch when I walked in, enraptured by a live stream of breaking news from the town. Attorney McKinney’s client’s cousin was on WFMY, live, giving a breaking announcement. There was an Amber alert for the toddler, Baby Doe. The camera gave descriptions of the child and the vehicle of the biological mother, who they believed to have taken her. The cousin said through tears that when she’d arrived at the daycare, a new employee had looked at her strangely, and informed her that she’d already picked the girl up and signed off. The cameras were low quality and black and white, something eFax would have produced no doubt, but around 4 PM a woman with a May I Speak To The Manager hairstyle and the same stature as the cousin had picked up Baby Doe. They aired the surveillance footage and a sketch of the suspect. She may have chopped off her long copper hair, but it certainly looked like Beth McKinney from where I was standing.
My family and I hadn’t been talking much at dinner. My stepdad always watched the news, and he knew something was wrong in town, but had assumed I’d come home because of the streak of violence. After a week though, I suppose he had to break his silence. My mother sensed that I knew a lot more than I was letting on, but seemed happy to keep me at home and away from the aftermath.
“What do you think is going on in town? Any idea who it might be?”
Someone had finally asked, and I was not ready to answer. It felt like I was being pushed toward a door of admission, which would have inevitably led to interrogation and probably my arrest until I started talking. I evaded the push, and turned the question around.
“If I knew, I would have said something so I could go back to work and life could get back to normal again. Everyone knows it’s crazed biological parents that pull the Amber alert shit, but I can’t explain duct taping your victims together while bludgeoning one with a decorative gavel.”
He looked down at his steak, declared it a bit too rare, and excused himself to remedy the immediate grave steak situation.
“I just worry about that poor baby. The world’s gone crackers, when law enforcement can’t make any inroads for an entire week,” my mom lamented. I nodded in agreement.
It was yet another night of vodka and TV, waiting to see what happened next, when I heard a car drive up. My mom was a light sleeper, so I padded downstairs to make sure the dogs didn’t wake up and lose their shit. They were starting to twitch their ears at the sound, so I patted them down and assured them there was no need to go into attack mode. I hoped, at least. I waited with them by the front door, both hands on the collar of each to keep them from bolting forward, watching a figure approach through the shadows in the headlights.
It was Beth. Or the new Beth. The old Beth couldn’t come to my house right now, because she’s dead. Her hair was indeed reduced to a messy “May I Speak To The Manager” cut, her eyes red and skin sunken. She hadn’t been sleeping. Her eyes had a crazed glow to them -- her pupils seemed fully dilated, so light disappeared into darkness when you looked into them.
I shooed the dogs back indoors, told her to turn off her headlights, and shut the gate behind me as I followed her to...a car. It definitely wasn’t her Camry. This thing was a piece of shit, I don’t even know if you could legally classify it as a car anymore. It had once been painted green, but sheets had peeled off, some rusted completely. This was the kind of car you could hotwire in a lonely parking lot off Gate City Boulevard and be totally in the clear because no one who owned it would care. There were NC plates, so bless the soul who left them on.
I saw the padded bundle in the back.
“Oh, you didn’t…”
“I’m not THAT sick, come on Morgan.”
Of course, she would never hurt a child. But I’d also never pegged her as a particularly creative murderess, either. The girl was just sleeping.
I walked her out further from the house, under the wooden carport so no one would hear us speaking quietly. I had to hear it from her, the news and the social media theories and the homage Facebook groups started by teens wanting to be labeled as psychopaths had left me more fatigued than informed. The grass had started to crunch, which meant it was in the lower 30s outside. We could see each other’s breath. She pulled a joint from her coat pocket and lit it, passing it to me as the story unfolded, Beth smoothing out the missing elements to paint the full picture, straightening the tapestry painted with bloodied revenge
I was expecting an explanation for what had happened in North Carolina, and why six had to die when it was one who put her over the edge. But she didn’t seem very interested in the past. Out of the groups calling the unknown killer a hero for sending the justice and legal system into a tailspin of chaos, most of them had contributed fractals or anecdotes to create a boogeyman. A large man wearing a mask made of someone else’s face who just loved to kill. A Nightstalker type who was just misunderstood, and lashing out at a system that had probably failed them as a foster child. It was all bullshit, a bunch of people wanting to be edgy by worshipping violence because they could put a body, an identity, to it.
Turns out, Beth had been learning some new tricks. She got into the dark web, which opened up a new universe of possibility, both moral and in terms of problem solving. What was so wrong with taking one life in the name of justice? What was wrong with 7? None were truly innocent, not like the little girl bundled into the back seat; I’d told Beth to keep the motor running and keep out the cold.
She’d seen the depravity of so-called “parents” and the people they let around their children. She had clients show up stinking drunk to court, still demanding unsupervised visitation with their traumatized offspring. She’d heard men lie and try to excuse advances on their stepdaughters. The people she’d found in this new universe weren’t looking for a god, they merely understood that sometimes extreme means were needed and that while her actions were worthy of respect, she wasn’t looking to be revered. Until she got a message from user darkcandy_27.
It was from an individual on behalf of a group that had been watching Beth’s work, they had operatives all over the country that had been assigned to equip her vehicles with GPS (even the new piece of shit car) and take photos before the police arrived. But this wasn’t blackmail. This was evidence of her greatness, her willingness to inevitably sacrifice herself for a clean slate, reform from the inside out. She was their messiah. They told her about details the police couldn’t have known, like the $12,000 in cash Judge Smith had in his desk that Beth had taken while looking for the tie that would serve as his noose. Or that West and Rinehold had pleaded with Beth, having been caught mid-fuck when she made her way into the house. The things they’d said, and that they’d frantically apologized for. They had recordings of it all.
But they hadn’t turned her in. What they had turned her into was a champion of the cause, a leader not afraid to stand up against an unfair system. Most of them were parents who had been wronged, in their own eyes, their children taken away. Some had not seen their flesh and blood for years. There was a compound in Virginia City, Nevada where a select few members could operate remotely. She had received a formal invitation to join them.
“So why are you telling me this?” I asked.
“Because you’re willing to hear the truth, you deserve to hear it. And we may never see each other again.”
She had accepted the invitation and was making her way to Nevada. I was a pit stop of sorts. The wheels had been put into motion, and the story had to finish unfolding. I knew talking her out of anything was pointless, but that she would do her best for that girl. In the name of kindness, I made my way to the cellar door outside that led to our year-round food storage supply. I gave her a few jars of fruit, applesauce, whatever she and Baby Doe could both eat. Beth just smiled, and handed me an envelope. $10,000 was in it. I just looked up at her, what was this?
“I only needed $2,000 to get where I need to go. The rest is to make sure you don’t remember anything about tonight.” She embraced me, freezing from the cold but still frantic, and I hugged back. Beth was my friend, and she had most definitely lost it. I was the only one who knew the story and still did not see a messiah. She put the car into reverse, causing the dogs to wake up and tear into a ruckus. Fortunately, Beth was long out of the driveway before I heard my mother shuffle around her room. I’d calmed the dogs down and gone back to the guest room.
PART 4
One month later:
Beth made her way to Virginia City, and JaDonathan filed a missing persons report. The police had gone through her home, it turns out JD had gone to stay at a hotel after the second night when it was clear something was wrong and Beth wasn’t coming back. He was still messaging her and checking in, he told her he had a job in Charlotte. She didn’t seem to care and stopped responding completely after day 5.
Beth had swept her laptop and picked up a burner phone, but forgot that Google Maps was still active on the tablet she used to keep Baby Doe entertained. From there, Detective Vance traced backward toward the group that had taken Beth in. The building where they had set up shop was a nondescript office suite building, red brick, you would have figured a small accounting firm and dentist’s office was why cars were parked in the lot. From the inside, it was a fortress. The members had stockpiled ammo and employed some of the sturdier members as security near the entrance. There were about 30 people total. They had formed their own family, but there was no leader to bring about cohesion, which is why they fixated on Beth. Upon her arrival, she was greeted as the second coming, she and Baby Doe given white robes and wraps. The Holy Mother and her child.
When a few citizens near the complex brought strange goings on to the attention of the police, they either assumed it was a brothel or a meth lab. When the local police were greeted by security, a shot was fired. It was from one of the windows above. More arrived, and the group was at a standoff. There were rifles and guns from every window, and every officer was drawn and waiting. SWAT arrived after about 11 minutes, which were almost as frozen in time and quiet as the deactivation of Donald Trump’s Twitter account, and shots rained down; several officers were injured and one was killed, but the complex was annihilated completely. Baby Doe had been spared, having been shielded by one of the members. One of the patrolmen that made it to the center of the complex said that Beth had stood up serenely, lifting her arms and empty hands, seeming to surrender. Her white robes against the sun through the windows behind her gave her an almost angelic quality. But then she raised her body in an imitation of Jesus on the cross, as she began to cough and blood dripped from her nose and mouth. She had taken a vial of arsenic tincture when the first shot was fired, and collapsed. Baby Doe was identified and transported back to the state of North Carolina.
The media was in an uproar for weeks. I had counted out the money after the fact, and found a small piece of thick paper with numbers written on the back. After some of my own online research, I found out that these were cyanide patches, usually issued to high up government officials or members of organized crime units in case of capture. Sure enough, the officers’ tracing of Google Maps brought them to my house. I stayed upstairs while my parents tried to argue that they had no warrant, and they assured them that they would. My mom came upstairs, frantic, not knowing what to do next. I told her to let me go voluntarily. I tucked the paper into the lining of my bra and went willingly when they returned.
The rest is history. I couldn’t smell the stench of the bed or the vomit of the woman above me, or hear the clamor in other cells. It was as though an icy hand had gripped my heart, and was slowly squeezing it to dust. Some stories just have to go to the grave.

Every game reviewed: Week 7

Hey all,
The following is something I did internally for Banner Society after going over every (or most every) game from the day prior. Last week I dumped the notes on Twitter, but that is not the best place or it. So here they are. Excuse my shorthand (YPP = Yards Per Play, YPA = Yards Per Attempt, YPC = Yards Per Carry, etc.) and typos. This helps me in my gambling prep as I host our gambling Twitch show every Sunday, so it is put together as quickly as possible. If you spot an error or have a question, please let me know in the comment section.

Visitor	Home	Note
Appalachian State	Louisiana Lafayette	APP 9% YPP edge. ULL threw the ball too much for not enough (131 on 24 attempts, 3 sacks). Neither offense did much.
Syracuse	NC State	24% YPP edge for NCSU. 225 of Cuse 341 yards came in final 20 minutes after being down 16-0. Cuse sacked 8X. Ugly game that amazingly had but 1 turnover.
Louisiana Monroe	Texas State	17% YPP edge for ULM. ULM D 11 TFL on just 67 plays faced. Neither team threw efficiently, but TSU 4.9/nonsack carry with a long of 21 means they controlled game on ground.
Colorado State	New Mexico	CSU 40% YPP edge. CSU hit a ton of explosive plays through the air.
Virginia	Miami	Miami 16% YPP edge, but UVA ran 20 more plays. Both defenses took advantage of bad opposing OL. UVA D had 9 TFL in just 52 plays faced. UVA failure to score when inside Miami 40 decided game.
Colorado	Oregon	Total domination by Oregon defense. 34 passes for 131 yards and 4 picks allowed to Montez. And Oregon finally let Herbert throw the ball, with good results.
Alabama	Texas A&M	Bama's first 7 drives: 4 TDs, 2 FG, and an INT in the A&M EZ. 50% YPP edge for Bama before garbage time. Kellen Mond threw or ran on 58 of A&M's 70 plays.
Arkansas	Kentucky	Arkansas lost to Kentucky 3rd string QB Lynn Bowden who had 24 carries for 196 and threw 11x for 78. 16% YPP edge for UK matches close score.
Army	Western Kentucky	Army did nothing until final 2 drives (2.9 YPP). WKU dominated game, running 81 plays to Army's 48. No turnovers.
Ball State	Eastern Michigan	EMU was -3 in turnovers and lost by 6. YPP pretty even. Turnovers the difference.
BYU	South Florida	USF extremely all or nothing. 7 drives of less than 10 yards, and then 4 TD drives. USF sacked BYU 6X.
Charlotte	Florida International	FIU scored TDs on 7 of 8 drives before garbage time. Methodical destruction of the Charlotte D
Cincinnati	Houston	10% YPP edge for Cinci but +4 in turnovers.
Florida	LSU	11.3 YPP for LSU (minus kneeldowns), 5.4 for UF. 109% YPP advantage. UF kept close by converting for much of night in gaining 29-play advantage, but eventually lack of explosive plays got Gators (1 play of 25+ all night)
Florida State	Clemson	208% YPP edge for Clemson before garbage time (7.1-2.3)
Fresno State	Air Force	Fresno 8% YPP edge but AF ran 30 more plays and had 160-yard edge. AF 4.9/nonsack carry with a long of 20, ahead of chains all night.
Georgia State	Coastal Carolina	GSU 5% YPP edge and ran 22 more plays than CC.
Georgia Tech	Duke	Duke started w. a FG and then scored 5 straight touchdowns before the half. 2nd half garbage time.
Hawaii	Boise State	Boise QB Bachmeier hurt in first 20 min. Boise 16% YPP edge before garbage time and ran 24 more plays before garbage time. Hawaii committed 6 turnovers before garbage time, all of them fumbles lost!
Iowa State	West Virginia	46% YPP edge for ISU. WVU QB Austin Kendall left game after 1 pass, backup Allison is bad player. WVU 190 total yards.
Kent State	Akron	Kent State ran for 5.2 nonsack carry (239 total yards). Ugly game. KSU drives of 16-58 and 16-65 lol.
Louisville	Wake Forest	LOU 15% YPP edge, but Wake ran 33 more plays! LOU won game in 1Q thanks to KO, PR, and turnover return. Nearly 1200 total yards. Wake had 622 yards and only 1 play of 30+
Maryland	Purdue	YPP edge for Purdue was somewhat small. Purdue's 10.2-5.6 YPA edge through air though. +1 turnovers. Purdue had Pick 6.
Memphis	Temple	Memphis probably should have won. Outgained TU by 20% YPP. Was -2 in turnovers. Rough call at the end of game.
Miami Ohio	Western Michigan	WMU just 5% YPP edge and ran 15 fewer plays. But +2 in turnovers. But when WMU went on a drive, it scored, almost no wasted yards.
Michigan	Illinois	Michigan outgained Illinois by 100% YPP. 2nd-consecutive misleading result for Illinois.
Michigan State	Wisconsin	Wisconsin 100% YPP edge. MSU complete inability to sustain a drive or hit explosive plays. QBs threw 30 passes for 110 yards and 2 picks.
Middle Tennessee	Florida Atlantic	FAU won by 2 TDs despite being outgained by 25% YPP. FAU +3 in turnovers. FAU average FP was 11yds better. MTSU had drives of 68, 23, 54, 54 (again) and 45 not end in points.
Mississippi State	Tennessee	UT 30% YPP edge, +1 in turnovers. UT huge FP edge (33.1-19.0). UT run game inefficient 35 carried for 122 with its backs, but got W. Miss State 11-21 for 146, 3 INT 7 sacks through air lol.This is what passed for regular quality football box score 20 years ago.
Navy	Tulsa	62% YPP edge for Navy. When that happens, Navy wins because it's almost always going to possess ball too. Navy is good and its defense held Tulsa to 4.14/play.
Nebraska	Minnesota	Wanna see a dead body? 92% YPP edge for Minnesota. 322 rush yards. Nebraska's No. 2 and 3 Qbs 29 throws for 148. Tanner Morgan threw only 13X. Nebraska's defense is as bad as expected, but its offense is much worse.
New Mexico State	Central Michigan	Game was closer than final score. 14-yard AVG FP edge for CMU. CMU controlled clock, backs had 41 rushes for 292.
North Texas	Southern Miss	North Texas ugh. 40% YPP edge before garbage time for SMiss. If your offense has a pulse, you'll torch North Texas.
Northern Illinois	Ohio	NIU started terribly but finished super strong. 15% YPP edge enough to overcome large FP disadvantage.
Oklahoma	Texas	UT incredibly lucky this was not a blowout. Jalen Hurts sloppy play kept it close. OU defense dominated. 73% YPP edge. Ehlinger sacked 9X and once the run or RPO threat is gone (hello passing downs) he is not a threat throwing.
Old Dominion	Marshall	Marshall 44% YPP edge, ran 26 more plays, controlled game, yet could not fully pull away. WHY? MU allowed some big plays in positive leverage defensive spots.
Ole Miss	Missouri	75% YPP edge for UM before garbage time. Not as close as final score.
Penn State	Iowa	Penn State's punter was awesome. 5 punts inside the Iowa 20. Iowa's average FP was its own 17. PSU's own 34. This was the difference in the game. That, and PSU consistently, but not explosively ran the football down Iowa's throat.
Rutgers	Indiana	Rutgers is pretty hopeless. 5-13 passing for 1 yard, 6 sacks. No INTs though! 1.63 yards/play for Rutgers, 7.63 for Indiana.
San Jose State	Nevada	Evenly played game won by a field goal. SJSU had 10% YPP edge and +1 turnovers, but Nevada ran 27 more plays. Former 5-star QB Malik Henry started for Nevada, 37 throws for 352 (2 picks).
South Carolina	Georgia	When you never scheme players open and never hit explosive plays, your offense has to be so clean. UGA should have won game (10% YPP edge and ran 27 more plays), but 4 turnovers is not clean. Georgia's lack of explosive play ability is an every week issue.
Texas Tech	Baylor	Baylor 15% YPP edge, both teams sloppy with 3 turnovers, score matches box score. TTech struggled to consistently run and when behind chains is was usually done but hit some big plays on 3rd/long.
Toledo	Bowling Green	UM... WTF. 7 points against Bowling Green? 29% YPP edge for BG. AVG FP Toledo 18, BG 36
UAB	UTSA	UTSA is terrible. This should have been much much worse (100% YPP edge before garbage), but red zone and turnover issues for UAB.
UConn	Tulane	For the 2nd time this year against an FBS team, UConn's offense was worse than its defense. Tulane could have won by 70.
UMass	Louisiana Tech	LA Tech passing game not in sync, otherwise, this was over at the half.
UNLV	Vanderbilt	The 10 minutes of the game was garbage time. At home. Against UNLV. Vandy QBs Neal, Wallace combined to go 16-41 for 140 yards (only 1 INT). AVG FP for UNLV was its own 43, special teams yikes.
USC	Notre Dame	Notre Dame probably did not deserve to win game. God out to a lead and put it on cruise control too early. Ian Book 36% success rate passing yikes. ND did get after passer once USC was in passing downs.
Utah	Oregon State	Utah took full advantage of bye week, 130% YPP edge over OSU. Utah had 91-yard rush td and 2 passes of 30+ in 1Q. Knockout punches.
Washington	Arizona	Washington 1H success rate: 28%, 2H: 65%. Tate couldn't throw on UW like he could on Colorado (28% success rate). UW passing game hit some big ones, still inconsistent. 35% YPP edge Washington.
Washington State	Arizona State	ASU had 22% YPP edge. Neither team played defense, but ASU at least limited explosive plays and dared WAZZU to drive while ASU hit bombs All 5 ASU TDS were explosive plays.L3 defensive games by WAZZU have been horrific.
Wyoming	San Diego State	Ugly game, YPP about even, SDSU ran 15 more plays and was +2 turnovers. Neither team was explosive of efficient really.

Every game reviewed, Week 11

Visitor	Home	Note
Ball State	Western Michigan	Both teams moved the ball OK but Ball State was in a bit of a FP hole and Western hit bigger plays. Score reflects how game was played.
Kent State	Toledo	Can't find a good box score of this one. I did watch it and KSU played pretty well except for some early fumbles which gave Toledo lead.
Wednesday, November, 6th
Miami Ohio	Ohio	Ohio quite unlucky not to win the game. Controlled it, ran 26 more plays for 100 more yards, but -2 in turnovers and was quite unlucky with timing of big plays.
Thursday, November, 7th
Louisiana Lafayette	Coastal Carolina	100% YPP edge before garbage time, CCU cannot pass the ball at all while ULL's starter was 26-30 for 296.
Temple	South Florida	USF's offense is bad. 3.8 YPP at home, and horrendous field position (own 17!). Tenple's defense dominated and if Temple's offense could do anything in USF territory this would have been a blowout.
Friday, November, 8th
UCF	Tulsa	UCF has multi-score lead at the half and knocked out Tulsa starter right before half. Then UCF is hot garbage in 2H and loses to a backup QB. UCF 1H YPP 7.6, 2H 3.6. UCF 3 TO in 2H. Tulsa's offense was pretty poor all game. UCF's offensive collapse gave Tulsa the game with amazing field position.
Washington	Oregon State	Oregon State's offense got murdered. 119 total yards! Washington had 300 yard edge.
Saturday, November, 9th
Appalachian State	South Carolina	USCe 17% YPP edge, turnovers even, but Muschamp kicked 2 FGS inside APP 25. APP scored on pick 6.
Baylor	TCU	2nd straight game where Baylor gave up a lot of TFLs. 9-9 tie in regulation, finishes 29-23, very evenly played, ultimately TCU's inability to pass (14-32 for 140, 3 INT) was difference.
Charlotte	UTEP	Charlotte survived a real scare. YPP about even, FP about even, the whole game was even. Charlotte didn't hit big runs like it usually does. Key was Charlotte defense shutting down UTEP offense in Q3 (9 plays, 19 yards). Charlotte pass defense becoming more of a a concern each week.
Clemson	NC State	If your athletics program is constantly complaining about things and perceived slight across multiple sports, perhaps it's you and not everyone else. Clemson had almost a 200% YPP edge by the half (42-0 score). Every drive into NCSU territory before garbage time ended in a TD. NC State's offense is an absolute train wreck and looks poorly coached every week (I watched this game).
East Carolina	SMU	Hangover game perhaps for SMU following memphis? This was like an arena game. "Up a score with the ball." SMU never trailed and ECU almost never had the ball with a chance to score.
Florida International	Florida Atlantic	FAU finished this off in 3Q. 50% YPP edge before garbage, +2 in turnovers, huge field position edge as a result. FIU could not hit explosive pass plays at all and couldn't hit enough big runs to overcome its overall inconsistency. Could have been a bigger blowout with FAU getting inside FIU territory 10X.
Florida State	Boston College	FSU 80% YPP edge. BC 14-20 on 3rd downs, but 0-2 on FGS. BC ran 93 plays to FSU's 57, but FSU had 4 TDs on explosive plays and BC did not have a play of 25+. Both head coaches managed game poorly (bad punt/fg decisions) but FSU's interim coach had 3 very bad ones in only 10 drives.
Georgia Southern	Troy	GaSo's defense got WORKED. Hangover game for GaSO after beating APP? GaSo's run game was inconsistent and not explosive. Troy, meanwhile, had 222 yards on 23 carries from its own backs. GaSo was sacked 9X. This could have been an even bigger blowout without 2 Troy turnovers.
Georgia State	Louisiana Monroe	GaST QB ellington hurt right before the half. 2H GaST offense sucked (relatively) with backup QB. Unsurprisingly, GaST did not hit explosive pass plays and couldn't match ULM score for score.
Georgia Tech	Virginia	UVA made good 2H adjustments and dominated the 3Q. The other quarters were somewhat in favor of GT. GT hit more explosive plays, but was -1 in turnovers and had awful field position. GT made 2 punt/kick/go questionable decisions in a game in which there weren't many possessions.
Illinois	Michigan State	Illinois got extremely lucky here. Michigan State had YPP edge (slight) and ran 18 more plays. But 4 Michigan State turnovers did them in. Illinois scored on a 40- and 80-yard pass wow
Iowa	Wisconsin	Wisconsin 20% YPP edge but -1 in turnovers, couldn't quite throw knockout punch but held multi-score lead for most of game. Taylor was a stud, 31 carries for 250.
Iowa State	Oklahoma	Oklahoma had 42-21 lead with 19 minutes left and then shit the bed in the 4Q, gaining only 1 first down and committing 2 turnovers in own end. Oklahoma defense had 0 sacks and only 3 TFL. OU's offense got worse every quarter. Yet it won the game because points in the 1Q count the same, and OU had 42 points and 474 yards through 3Q
Kansas State	Texas	Kansas State played like crap and was fortunate to come away with only a 3-point loss. Texas did whatever it wanted on offense with one exception: it failed to hit big plays and KSU did tighten down some in opponent zone. 30% YPP edge for Texas. KSU couldn't run (2.7/carry nonsack) and that too often got it in long down/distance.
Liberty	BYU	15% YPP edge for BYU but -2 in turnovers helped keep it close. BYu 3 passes of 40+
Louisville	Miami	Miami dominated. 50% YPP edge before garbage and +3 in turnovers. Canes nearly perfect in Louisville territory, Louisville far from it. LOU hit some big plays of its own but was inconsistent on offense and could not run the ball before garbage time.
LSU	Alabama	Both teams had 3 good quarters and 1 bad, but Bama's was really bad (outscored 23-6 in 2Q and bad INT in own end). LSU consistently stayed ahead of the chains, Alabama was more explosive. Both defenses bowed up well in long down-distance. Big time FP edge for LSU's offense, especially if you filter out Bama's punt return. Only 1 Bama drive started outside its own 40. 8 Bama drives started at own 25 or worse.
Maryland	Ohio State	300% YPP edge before garbage time. Domination in every phase.
Missouri	Georgia	Miz QB Kelly Bryant did not play. Georgia 75% YPP edge before garbage time, allowed less than 200 yards offense.
Nevada	San Diego State	Both offenses were awful, both teams had 1 turnover, but Nevada had big FP edge and hit a few more explosive plays.
New Mexico State	Ole Miss	Body bad game took about a quarter longer than it should have but NMSU never threatened in any way.
North Texas	Louisiana Tech	NT QB Mason Fine injured. LA Tech had this wrapped up in 3Q. North Texas could not create big plays and had some drives of OK yardage go for not. LT +2 in turnover and ran 35 more plays!
Notre Dame	Duke	Duke was 16-31 for 102 yards passing. 100% YPP edge for Notre Dame thanks to hitting some big runs.
Penn State	Minnesota	Minnesota 10% YPP edge and +2 in turnovers. PSU 3 INT in Minnesota territory. If Minnesota wouldn't run the ball so much it could have blown out Penn State, assuming the turnovers stay same. But UM backs 34 carries for 123 yards (3.6) isn't good. MU 8 passes of 20+
Purdue	Northwestern	Northwestern should have won this game. Turnovers even, both had bad FP, Purdue had 3rd string QB, NW 90-yard total yard edge, 20% YPP edge and yet did not get it done.
San Jose State	Hawaii	Hawaii 10% YPP edge and decent edge in explosive plays is why. But real key was Hawaii cashed in its scoring chances while San Jose state had to settle for some field goals. 82 combined points on 17 combined drives is nuts.
South Alabama	Texas State	TSU 20% YPP edge but -2 in turnovers and was poor in red zone made this much closer than it should have been. Also TSU completely shut it down in 4Q, TSU won thanks to explosive plays, which S Ala did not hit.
Stanford	Colorado	Stanford 35% YPP edge and lost with turnovers even. Why? Only got into scoring position 4X and kicked 3 field goals. Part of issue was yards were gained coming from bad FP
Tennessee	Kentucky	Tennessee hit big plays, Kentucky did not at all (especially through the air). Teams have figured out the Lynn Bowden WR at QB thing. 4-7 for 25 yards, 1 INT, 2 sacks. Kentucky was awful when it did get in scoring position. 40% YPP edge for Vols.
Texas Tech	West Virginia	WVU -4 in turnovers and horrendous with its scoring chances leads to getting blown out in just 3 quarters at home.
UAB	Southern Miss	UAB did not have its QB and it showed. 100% YPP edge for USM before garbage time.
UConn	Cincinnati	Body bag conference game. 100% YPP edge before garbage. UConn had 23 passes for 70 yards.
UMass	Army	200% YPP edge before garbage time. UMass is next level bad.
USC	Arizona State	ASU did not have starting QB Daniels. USC 40% YPP edge and +1 turnovers, but bad field position kept this close. ASU sold out against run but paid v. the pass. ASU backup QB was not bad but ASU could not run.
Utah State	Fresno State	Fresno was perfect with its scoring chances (5 touchdowns on 5 trips) but Utah State had more of them. Fresno probably deserved to get the win by a slight margin but close score reflects closely played game.
UTSA	Old Dominion	UTSA had slight YPP edge, was +1 in turnovers, and was just a bit better in every area.
Vanderbilt	Florida	Body bag conference game. 200% YPP edge before garbage. Vandy threw 21 passes for 77 yards and had no run threat either. No Vandy passing play before garbage time graded as successful.
Wake Forest	Virginia Tech	VT dominated wake. 45% YPP edge, big FP edge, Wake's offense was wildly inconsistent and did not create enough explosive plays to make up for it at all. VT ran for 6/carry nonsack. Blowout should have been bigger than 19.
Washington State	California	Cal beat Wazzu with explosive plays, Wazzu was more consistent. Wazzu big FP edge which, welp, 57 yards of which came on a botched call for which the Pac-12 has already apologized and suspended the ref for.
Western Kentucky	Arkansas	Garbage time by halftime! WKU 317 1H yards to 119 for Hawgs. 7-12 on 3rd downs in the 1H. Hawgs had equal YPP before garbage but 0-3 on 3rd downs.
Wyoming	Boise State	Wyoming had backup QB. As did Boise. Still almost won. Boise 15% YPP edge but -2 in turnovers leading to huge FP edge for Wyoming. Neither team hit explosive plays or were very consistent.

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Based in South Carolina, where gambling is prohibited, the Catawbas have looked across the border for at least seven years. The tribe finally won federal approval in March to acquire 16 acres near Interstate 85 in Cleveland County. The U.S. Interior department put the land in trust, a designation that gives it the right to develop a casino. There is poker in North Carolina! You will find over 20 live poker tables to play at. You will find the following games in North Carolina casinos: NL Texas Hold'em, Omaha Hi-Lo, NL Holdem, 7 Card Stud. Some North Carolina casinos also offer convention centers and meeting spaces. Best Casinos in Charlotte, NC - Event Magic. Virtual Tours of Museums, Historic Sites, Theme Parks, and More Right from Your Couch The town of Charlotte can be discovered in the state of North Carolina (United States). Composed of 810000 inhabitants, it is considered a big town. There's not a casino in Charlotte which is unfortunate! But don’t fret, there's a amazing casino nearby, Pinehurst Resort Casino & Campground. Charlotte, NC gambling casino Find gambling casino in Charlotte, NCGet Phone Numbers, Address, Reviews, Photos, Maps for gambling casino near me in Charlotte, NC. Other Casinos Near Charlotte. A third option for gambling near Charlotte is a trip south to a casino boat. Called the Big “M” Casino, these two casino boasts sail out of Little River, South Carolina, (just north of Myrtle Beach). It’s 183 miles away from downtown Charlotte. Gambling Near Charlotte Nc together an Gambling Near Charlotte Nc updated list of the best casino bonuses for new players. Simply visit any of the online casinos that are listed below and follow the instructions to redeem a casino bonus and play your favorite casino games. Casinos in Charlotte on YP.com. See reviews, photos, directions, phone numbers and more for the best Casinos in Charlotte, NC. Casinos near Charlotte, NC Browse URComped’s up-to-date list of the 9 closest casinos to Charlotte, NC There are no casinos within a 30 minute drive of Charlotte, NC but you can see a full list of casinos and their driving distance from Charlotte, NC below. Gambling Near Charlotte Nc, poker texas city, am casino, slot tom. Visit Casino T&C's Apply. Percentage. 9. Slotty Vegas - Welcome Bonus 18+, T&C Apply,, New Customers Only.-0 * T&C. $25 No Deposit Bonus at Raging Bull /10. Read our full review. Read our full review. ComeOn. Germany 0.

North Carolina Casinos & Gambling in North Carolina

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2020 Offseason Review Series - Cleveland Browns

Cleveland Browns

I did not hear from the non fan for the post so maybe we can add it later.

Cleveland Browns 2020 Offseason Review

Cleveland Browns

I did not hear from the non fan for the post so maybe we can add it later.

The First Joe Douglas Draft

The Players

1st Round, 11th Overall - T Mekhi Becton, Louisville

2nd Round, 59th Overall - WR Denzel Mims, Baylor

3rd Round, 68th Overall - S Ashtyn Davis, California

3rd Round, 79th Overall - Edge Jabari Zuniga, Florida

4th Round, 120th Overall - RB La’Mical Perine, Florida

4th Round, 125th Overall - QB James Morgan, Florida International

4th Round, 129th Overall - T Cameron Clark, Charlotte

5th Round, 158th Overall - CB Bryce Hall, Virginia

6th Round, 191st Overall - P Braden Mann, Texas A&M

Overall

Week 5 Review Notes

12(b)(666)

Every game reviewed: Week 7

Every game reviewed, Week 11

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