FuboTV DD (First time making DD, please give advice)
I tried to make it easy to skip around if you just want to see the financials or estimates. Just scroll to them if you don't care what the company is or their sectocompetition/management. TL;DR at bottom with final thoughts. Introduction “FuboTV ($FUBO) is an American streaming television service that focuses primarily on channels that distribute live sports, including NFL, MLB, NBA, NHL, MLS and international soccer, plus news, network television series and movies. Launched on January 1, 2015 as a soccer streaming service, FuboTV changed to an all-sports service in 2017 and then to a virtual multichannel video programming distributor (vMVPD) model. As a vMVPD, FuboTV still calls itself sports-first but its expanded channel lineup targets cord cutters, offering a selection of major cable channels and OTT-originated features that can be streamed through smart TVs, mobile and tablets and the web. The service is available in the United States, Canada and Spain as of 2018." From their home page: They are the only competitors in their space of digital sports broadcasting, offer 4K streaming and upscaling of live sports, cloud DVR capability ranging from 250 or 1000 hours on standard plans, and is available on Roku, Apple TV, Amazon Fire TV, Chromecast, Samsung Smart TVs, Xbox One, Android TV, Android Smart TVs, and Android/iOS smartphones and tablets, with plans ranging from $24.99/month to $79.99/month (not including add-ons). They have also recently acquired one company and have made plans to acquire another to allow for in-house sports betting. They have stated in a press release that they plan to release a sportsbook before the end of the year. This will push them into a broader spectrum outside of only TV and sports streaming, and into the sports betting sector along with DraftKings ($DKNG), FanDuel ($PDYPY), and Penn National Gaming ($PENN). Plans and Add-ons FuboTV offers three standardized plans as of February 8, 2021: the Family plan is priced at $64.99/month (normally $75.97/month), Elite at $79.99/month (normally $100.95/month), and Latino Quarterly at $24.99/month, along with offering additional add-ons. Each plan offers a range of channels, cloud DVR capabilities (which allows fast-forwarding through commercials), and casting to multiple devices simultaneously. Only the Elite plan does not offer a 7-day free trial (Channels page). The Family plan includes 117 channels (mostly news and entertainment with roughly 40 that offer sports, including ESPN), up to 250 hours of DVR space, and casting to 3 devices at once. The quarterly prepaid includes a free upgrade to 1000 hours of DVR space and 5 casting devices at home with 3 on the go (Channels page). The Elite plan includes 164 channels (includes an additional “47 entertainment channels”), up to 1000 hours of DVR space, and casting to 5 devices at home with 3 on the go. This plan does not offer a quarterly prepaid (Channels page). The Latino Quarterly plan includes 250 hours of DVR space and can be streamed on up to 3 devices at once, but only has 32 channels. This plan needs to be prepaid every 3 months for a total charge of $74.97 and does not offer a monthly service (Channels page). Upgrades include additional DVR space--1000 hours for an additional $6.99/month for the Family and Latino Quarterly--and increased device casting--an additional 2 devices at home with 3 on the go for another $9.99/month for the Family and Latino Quarterly plans. You can also add a variety of channels and sports packages (the Latino Quarterly has fewer channel add-ons compared to the Family and Elite plans, which both have the same channel varieties). Sports Plus with NFL RedZone is an additional $10.99/month, but includes all professional and college sports broadcasting services for football, basketball, baseball, hockey, tennis, fighting, etc. (Channels page). Fubo has recently removed its former Standard plan, which included only 65 channels, up to 2 casting devices, and only 30 hours of DVR support for $60/month. Financials and Growth Fubo has yet to file an annual report as they have gone public in October of 2020, but they have filed a 10-Q for Q3 2020. All numbers in thousands. Assets- Between December 31, 2019 and September of 2020, assets have increased from $368,225 to $799,313 (a 117% increase) . Total current assets increased from $17,973 to $58,016, but accounts receivable decreased from $8,904 to $6,975--this may be attributed to the increase in prepaid subscriptions which increased from $1,445 to $12,177 which shows strong customer satisfaction and retention. Liabilities- Liabilities have increased from $145,049 to $290,376 (a 100% increase). The largest contributors to their liabilities are “Due to related parties” increasing from $665 to $85,847, “Warrant liabilities” increasing from $24 to $28,085, and “Accounts payable” from $36,373 to $61,679. Long-term borrowings have decreased from $43,982 to $25,905. Revenues- Subscription revenues increased by $53,433, totaling $92,945 for the year. Total revenues including advertisements and licensing have increased by $61,202, totaling $112,669 for the year and an increase of 47% YOY. Q4 revenue is estimated to be between $94,000 and $98,000 which would be a 77-84% increase YOY. Expenses- Subscriber related expenses total $114,315 for the year. Total expenses have totaled $500,249 for the year. Subscribers- Ended Q3 with 455,000 paid subscribers, a YOY increase of 58%, and plans to end 2020 with over 545,000, an increase of 72% YOY. Competition Its closest competitors are Hulu + Live TV (owned by Disney ($DIS)), YouTube TV (owned by Alphabet ($GOOG)), and Sling TV (owned by Dish Network ($DISH)). Hulu + Live TV
Includes league networks
50 hours of free DVR (200 hours for $9.99/month)
More than 74 channels
Unskippable ads on DVR without upgrade to 200 hours
2 streams at a time
$64.99/month
Can add ESPN+ and Disney+ for an additional $7/month
YouTube TV
Includes league networks
Unlimited DVR storage
More than 85 channels plus YouTube Red Originals
3 streams at a time
Sports Plus package for an additional $10.99/month
NBA LeaguePass for an additional $40/month or $119.99 annually
Starting at $64.99/month
Sling TV Blue
Includes league networks
DVR up to 50 hours (200 hours for $5/month)
More than 45 channels
3 streams at a time
Sports Extra package for an additional $11/month
Starting $35/month
Can be combined with Sling TV Orange for a total of $50/month
Sling TV Orange
Includes league networks
DVR up to 50 hours (200 hours for $5/month)
More than 30 channels
1 stream at a time
Sports Extra package for an additional $11/month
Starting at $35/month
Can be combined with Sling TV Blue for a total of $50/month
Merger with FaceBank for $100 million revolving credit
Analysts and Estimates Average analyst ratings put Fubo at a Buy to Strong Buy rating with an average price target of $45.50 with a high of $60 and a low of $30. EPS estimates are estimated to be -5.23 for 2020 and -1.64 for 2021. Currently has a short float of about 75%, but the short volume has been holding at roughly 15-20% over the last month and has drastically declined from its October short volume of over 50%. Originally valued at $700 million less than a year ago, a current valuation of $3.19 billion is respectable for this company and is on par for its current performance. Risks
Marketing fails and Fubo is never known as a household name, so consumers stick with other more known providers
Their sportsbook fails and becomes dead weight and wasted money
Subscriber count and streaming drops as quarantine lifts, reducing revenues while maintaining expenses
Consumers opt for cheaper options
People paying for the sports package cancel when the season is over, creating a boom and bust cycle if not managed correctly
Final Thoughts / TL;DR With its drastic growth over the last year (400% in the last 4 months), support from FaceBank and well-known investors, and plans to join the sports betting sector, FuboTV has potential to become a household name and grow well beyond its current valuation by combining both sports broadcasting and online sports betting into one convenient place. Although unlikely to overthrow any of the current forces, it can become the best live sports broadcaster that people can turn to when they cut cable but want to keep live sports. It has many hurdles to overcome (creating their sportsbook, better marketing, increasing subscriber count, etc.) before it is any real competition to its already established competition. At a $3.19 billion market cap and very high (75%) short interest, it will be very difficult to realize consistent growth, but it is on par for a company with almost $100 million in revenue. My Position 25 shares at $47.30 Edit: edited final thoughts/TL;DR Please provide feedback! First time actually researching and compiling information for a company and not just reading about them on here. Also, please ask questions to clear up any confusion; it was kinda hard to put everything together neatly, so I might have accidentally left stuff out or oveunder explained some things.
Lukas Geralt Albrecht Kleiner: the Man, the Myth, the Mental Case Himself
"There’s no better morale booster than a son of strife riddled with borderline psychopathy" – Rosalie Osborne
General Info:
Current age: 20
Birthday: 01/14/2016
Full name: Lukas Geralt Albrecht Kleiner
Birthplace: Newport, RI
Demigod-Related Conundrums: Dyslexia/ADHD
Alignment: Chaotic Good
Affiliation: Camp Half-Blood, Cabin #25, Bunker Nine, Cult of Phlegethon, Institute of Culinary Education New York campus.
Favorite Things:
Foods: Lukas loves pretty much all food, but has a particular fondness for garlic bread and blueberry pastries, among other baked goods.
Drinks: Coffee milk. Lukas just can’t get enough of it (which is probably a consequence of where he came from). Besides that, he also loves frozen lemonade, as well as any and all flavors of Kool-Aid. Of note is the fact that he despises the taste of wine, but not necessarily of alcohol in general.
Media:
Video Games: From Call of Duty to Ace Combat to Super Smash Bros, Lukas is a whiz at fast-paced action video games. Besides that, the likes of Pokemon and The Elder Scrolls also hold a special place in his heart. Books: Despite being dyslexic, Lukas manages to work through it and is reasonably well-read, thanks to his educational upbringing and his father’s tutelage. School-recommended readings such as The Adventures of Tom Sawyer are a given, as well as the Harry Potter, Nancy Drew, A Series of Unfortunate Events series. Growing up, he moved on to the likes of Dale Brown, Clive Cussler, Tom Clancy, and James Dashner. However, all throughout, it would be Lord of the Flies that would remain his favorite book, which makes sense when he looks back on it, now that he knew who his mother is. Movies and Television: Growing up with a proud military grandfather, war movies are a must. Saving Private Ryan and Full Metal Jacket, among others. There’s also TV series such as Generation War and the holy Trinity of HBO World War II miniseries: Band of Brothers, The Pacific, and Masters of the Air. He is also quite into animation, both western and japanese, particularly of the Justice League animated series and Code Geass. More still, is his familiarity with all the most ubiquitous movies and series, particularly Star Wars and Lord of the Rings. Look, what I’m saying is that he has watched a lot of stuff, alright? Music: Lukas primarily listens to pop punk bands such as the Wonder Years, Neck Deep, and Hot Mulligan, as well as the likes of Dance Gavin Dance and The Amity Affliction, though he is also prone to just listening to whatever strikes his fancy up to and including straight-up meme songs.
Clothing Style: Best described as a variation of skater-style clothing (despite not being an avid skater himself). Casual combinations of T-shirts, jeans, and sneakers. Outerwear (jackets and hoodies) is definitely a must. Others: Over the years, Lukas’s many encounters have left him with similarly numerous scars. His entire back is very heavily scarred from a harpy attack, while his left forearm was similarly mangled in a hellhound attack. There is a long scar on his right bicep and there are two smaller scars on his left cheek.
Personality:
Lukas is, in a word, spontaneous. One moment, he can’t be taken seriously (and is likewise, taking nothing seriously) then the next moment, he’s cold, clinical, and calculating. Going deeper into his personality, it almost begins to make sense: he’s a confident, carefree, happy-go-lucky guy who’s surprisingly competent when the situation calls for it. However, not even that is enough to encompass Lukas’s character. Ultimately, the truth is simpler to say, but harder to realize: Lukas is nothing more than a loose collection of many various character traits – some of which contradict each other – affixed onto your typical demigod. He possesses some deterministic viewpoints, but would gladly roil and rage against fate just out of principle. He is a humanist at heart, but would gladly dehumanize his enemies. He is overwhelmingly confident in his abilities, but not in his character and identity. All these clashing personality traits – along with a whole miscellany of other minutiae – bounce around in his head, creating the chaotic storm that is one Lukas Geralt Albrecht Kleiner.
Family:
Member
Name
Age
Relationship
Mother
Eris
“Yo mama so old”
Goddess of chaos, strife, and discord. Despite the less-than-favorable opinion many gods, demigods, scholars, and even just casual enthusiasts of mythology hold towards her, Lukas is actually quite proud to call her his mother, and the two have gotten along famously on the few occasions that they got to meet. Needless to say, his relationship with his mother is vastly positive.
A straight-laced, no-nonsense man who seemed to have a pole perpetually up his butt. Despite not being particularly affectionate, he was by no means cold or overly strict, and Lukas holds him in high esteem for being his guardian and mentor.
A loud, larger-than-life presence, William takes a large portion of the blame for why Lukas turned out the way he did, encouraging his grandson’s antics and misadventures every step of the way. It was he who taught Lukas how to cook and bake, as well as to keep a knife concealed on his person at all times and for that, he is the son of Eris’s foremost role model.
Lukas shares a reasonably warm relationship with his stepmother, in large part thanks to their mutual doting over Helena. As far as Lukas is concerned, she is just as much a mother to him as Eris is - okay, maybe a little less than Eris is...
Lukas met Helena within his first year at camp and, after having grown up an only child as well as being the youngest of his demigod siblings at the time, he took to his role of being the big brother with considerable enthusiasm, much to the annoyance of his stepsister. He positively dotes on her, and even sees her as closer to him than any of his demigod siblings.
A prize from when the gods came to camp to hold olympic games. Odie is 13 feet long (at the moment, at least, and he can grow up to 15 feet), has scales harder than celestial bronze, breathes acid, and is very, very grumpy, especially when hungry. Very few people can claim that he even remotely likes them
Actually Helena’s pet. Lukas got Fi from Boreas himself as a peace offering when Camp sent out a quest to negotiate with the god and stop him from taking over and freezing the northern hemisphere. Unlike Odie, Fi is so much smaller milder and affectioniate – except when he sees that Helena doesn’t like someone, in which case he turns as threatening as an adorable 1-foot-long snake with tiny, tiny fangs and no venom can possibly be.
Bort
Giant loaf of bread with googly eyes
Don’t ask.
Friends:
Name
Description
Serenity Bloom, daughter of Enyo
Lukas’s girlfriend for... quite a long while by now. With how violently chaotic the two of them can be, very few people are aware of how sickeningly sweet they act in private. Serenity is essentially the only person who Lukas is comfortable sharing his vulnerable side with, particularly some of his deepest and darkest doubts and fears, which is just one indicator of how much she means to him.
Brandon Davenport, son of Hephaestus
Lukas’s best friend, and one of the Boom Bros. Lukas was there to welcome Brandon to Camp, and had trained him when he was just a new demigod. Fast-forward to the present and Lukas is immensely proud of Brandon’s achievements and current status in camp, and even acts in deference to him in matters where he can trust the son of Hephaestus’s expertise.
Matthew Thompson, son of Athena
The third Boom Bro who has now since moved on from life at Camp. Matthew was the foremost tactician for the Bros, responsible for taking Lukas’s seemingly insane concepts and giving them form for Brandon to bring into reality. Just like with Brandon, Lukas respects and values Matthew’s unique insight, despite technically holding seniority over the son of Athena.
Deklyn Hayes, daughter of Iris
The bane of Lukas’s cooking ingredients, Deklyn brings a sense of normalcy into Lukas’s camp life when he’s with her and Brandon. Owing to a minor mishap involving illusions and a knife, Lukas is indirectly responsible for getting Brandon and Deklyn together and, considering how well it all turned out in the end, looks upon them and their relationship happily and proudly.
Tristan Macmillan, son of Zeus
Lukas and Helena like to tease Tristan by calling him their pet bird. And as absurd as that sounds – deservedly so, might I add – there is some truth to that: The two stepsiblings have all but adopted the son of Zeus like some sort of long-lost little brother (even though he’s older than Helena). Beyond that wholesome little detail, however, Tristan is also Lukas and Brandon’s de facto subordinate – at least, until they made it official when he joined the Cult of Phlegethon – an arrangement that the son of Zeus is strangely okay with, despite how Lukas and Brandon insist on him to come into his own.
Albireo Albright, son of Techne
Another of Lukas and Brandon’s subordinates in the Cult of Phlegethon. Unlike with Tristan, Lukas is more hands-off with Alby and their relationship is more professional than anything else, though Lukas does insist on looking after the son of Techne’s well-being to some extent.
Rosalie Osborne, daughter of Pandia
A key figure in the ballista project that gave rise to the Boom Bros, Rosalie may very well be an honorary Bro as far as Lukas is concerned. Besides that, Lukas had gone with Rosalie on his second quest, and greatly approves of the determination the once-timid girl had shown in defiance of a god. Rosalie has since left Camp, leaving Lukas with only fond memories of her during an admittedly bad time.
Mackenzie Knoton-Lee, daughter of Aeolus
Helena’s “cousin” (Aeolus wasn’t one of the anemoi but neither Lukas nor Helena cared for the distinction). Lukas is nowhere near as affectionate with her as Helena is, but he’s always ready to lend a hand, an ear, a shoulder, or a knife to the younger daughter of Aeolus. Mack was the third member of Lukas’s second quest and, much like with Rosalie, he admires her confidence and bravery despite her youth.
Alexandra Williams, daughter of Eris
Lukas’s elder sister, and the one who had welcomed him into Camp and into the world of gods and monsters. Even now that she’s left Camp, Lukas looks back on her fondly and often.
Roran Riselli, son of Ares
A veteran son of Ares who had been Lukas’s primary mentor in demigodly matters, primarily combat. It would be an understatement to say that Lukas would not be who he was without Roran. Unfortunately, Roran vanished during the Mycenaean war, making Lukas’s memories of him more bitter than those of his other absent friends
Cressida Raven, daughter of Athena
One of Lukas’s questmates from his very first quest. Cressida, being more experienced than Lukas, unknowingly influenced him into becoming more analytical and evaluative, drawing out a side of him that he, at the time, had not known existed – and that turned out to be partially attributable to his grandmother.
Edwin Galliard, son of Pollux
The third man of Lukas’s first quest. Where Cressida influenced him to become more tactical, Edwin inspired him to be more combative, as opposed to being satisfied with merely using his powers for sabotage. Wherever he is, Lukas misses one of his very first friends at camp.
A set of throwing knives bestowed upon him by Hephaestus as a reward from his first quest. Only a few inches long, one wonders why they’re his weapon of choice. When one considers the fact that they’re indestructible, magically return to their sheaths, cannot be wielded by anyone except him, and bear his mother’s signature, it starts to make a little more sense.
A set of armor commissioned from Brandon. Its celestial bronze composition and construction provide excellent protection against glancing blows and near misses. However, it was designed with all sorts of weight-saving measures such as incomplete coverage over certain parts of his body, as well as light and hollow plates. As such, it offers considerably less protection against direct hits compared to a standard set of armor.
Basically grenades with fluid payloads, they come in three flavors: fuel vapors (akin to a fuel-air bomb), liquid greek fire, and greek fire vapors, all contained in a pressurized vessel. Bunker Nine produces these explosives in a limited quantity, and even fewer actually leave the Bunker for actual use. They can be set to explode on a timer, or one end of the canister can be unlocked to violently spew the contents over a short distance.
A food truck that Lukas had stolen liberated from an impound lot, refurbished and repurposed as his own private kitchen at Bunker Nine.
Powers and Abilities
Title
Description
Passive Power: Combat Expertise
Being that Eris is a (if not the) purveyor of conflict, Lukas possess a preternatural talent for combat, best exemplified in his lightning-quick, razor-sharp reflexes. When throwing himself into the melee, he can sift through the chaos of battle with ease, picking out prime windows of opportunity and allowing him to make the maximum impact possible with whatever little he’s got.
Emotional Manipulation
Lukas can manipulate existing feelings of anger and hatred in other people, either turning those aforementioned emotions up to their boiling point, or forcing them to simmer down. This works best when used in conjunction with either scathing or soothing words, gibing Lukas more emotions to work with.
Chaos Initiation
When either focused onto a target (be it inanimate or living) or allowed to spread freely around him, Lukas essentially weaponizes chaos and disorder. This means that every possible outcome, both good and bad, of a given reaction is now in play. While this does not necessarily equate to “bad luck”, the simple fact of the matter is just that, generally speaking, for every desirable outcome, there are just so many ways for things to go horribly wrong.
Insanity Inducement
The power that Lukas is least comfortable with. Lukas can directly inflict a host of psychological symptoms, foremost of which is thought disorder but also including delusions, mania, paranoia and auditory and visual hallucinations, to name a few. However, use of this power comes at a cost: Lukas himself is made to suffer the same symptoms that he inflicts on others, albeit to a lesser extent, and repeated use of this power over the years has left its mark on him and his psyche. As such, he restricts himself from unleashing its more sever effects on others – and on those rare occasions when he does, he makse sure he’s somewhat restrained from doing anything else at the moment, lest he run rampant himself.
Other abilities:
Combat: besides his divinely-inherited combat proficiency, Lukas’s training has honed and specialized him for fast-paced combat with both his knives and mental powers. However, Lukas’s effectiveness in combat drops off drastically the heavier and slower his equipment makes him.
Tactical: while far from a right and proper battlefield commander, Lukas fills a distinct niche as a small unit tactician. He can confidently and competently take command of a small, select unit with whom he can accomplish singular objectives, though he would ultimately have to the likes of Jay, Matthew, or Brandon for overall operations.
Cooking: definitely the one thing that Lukas is most proud of. Lukas started learning how to cook at the age of six – though he only managed to succeed at it when he turned thirteen. See, the thing is, his chaos powers had always gotten in the way, screwing up a decent enough recipe just because of a few imperfections. However, what that meant was that when he finally got it right, it was because he executed his procedures so flawlessly that there was no way for even his powers to mess it up.
Academics and Intellect: despite his dyslexia, Lukas had done well enough in school, and possesses a keen, analytic mind, being a legacy of Athena. He excels in the natural sciences, does well in history, and performs roughly around average in other fields.
Athletics: Lukas does... alright in sports. He could probably make the track or soccer team if he tried, though he is highly averse to football and basketball. He’s athletic, sure, but he’s just not built for that kind of full-contact, a fact highlighted when he came to a camp populated by literal superhumans, where he now ends up looking average, if not outright scrawny.
Music: Lukas is by no means a great singer but he can at least hold a tune. However, what he is good at is playing drums, and he played the snare for his highschool’s marching band and cheer squad.
History:
Even glossing over the less important details, Lukas’s story ultimately starts with his father and grandfather. Richard Kleiner had, at the age of 13, been claimed as a son of Athena, and was ready to leave Kiel, Germany for Camp Half-Blood in the United States. Then, all of a sudden, his father, William decided to leave his command (of the Kommandospezialkrafte, no less, the German special operations unit) to be able to live at least relatively closer to his son. The surprising and unnatural ease with which he was allowed to retire, as well as to secure his new job as a professor in the US Naval War College in Newport, Rhode Island, may or may not be thanks to the favor of Athena... In any case, Richard would grow into adulthood, becoming a lawyer and starting his own relatively successful private practice firm in Newport. It was around this period when he somehow captured the attention of Eris. One thing led to another and, well... It’s Lukas time. Growing up, Lukas would often find himself at the epicenter of some altercation or another. However, the young demigod had a knack for weaseling his way out of it, every single time. In fact, he was always so strangely unscathed that no one ever suspected that he had any involvement in whatever incident he would be found in. And technically, he didn’t: he was just there enjoying the show. It was in his mid-teens when he found himself getting into progressively more violent incidents that his grandfather taught him self-defense. It turns out, a tiny hidden knife worked wonders in getting you out of massive brawls when you stick it into just the right places – as long as you cover your bases with some quick thinking, a few choice words, and some good old-fashioned situational awareness. Needless to say, quite a few punks found themselves with some strange little stab wounds – and no real idea where they came from. That life couldn’t last forever, though. A few months after his 17th birthday, Lukas would fall prey to a vicious attack by a flock of harpies. Up until that point, his father had managed to keep him safe from any and all monster attacks but at that moment, Richard knew that Lukas had to go to Camp. And from there, the rest is Camp history: nearly three years at Camp Half-Blood, most of it spent as counselor, with just about as many world-ending crises averted. Lukas was now an experienced, battle-honed veteran of Camp – not quite a hero, but he’s what they’ve got.
Present Day:
The scent of freshly-baked bread wafted from the kitchens, where Lukas can be found baking to pass the time. With his knifework out of the way, Lukas figured this was the next best way to spend a lazy Sunday such as today... (template by u/ModernPharmakeia, with some modifications by u/MechaAdaptor and further modified by myself)
Full credit to u/AlbibiG. The original post was posted on February 8th 2021. Enjoy. -
Introduction “FuboTV ($FUBO) is an American streaming television service that focuses primarily on channels that distribute live sports, including NFL, MLB, NBA, NHL, MLS and international soccer, plus news, network television series and movies. Launched on January 1, 2015 as a soccer streaming service, FuboTV changed to an all-sports service in 2017 and then to a virtual multichannel video programming distributor (vMVPD) model. As a vMVPD, FuboTV still calls itself sports-first but its expanded channel lineup targets cord cutters, offering a selection of major cable channels and OTT-originated features that can be streamed through smart TVs, mobile and tablets and the web. The service is available in the United States, Canada and Spain as of 2018." From their home page: They are the only competitors in their space of digital sports broadcasting, offer 4K streaming and upscaling of live sports, cloud DVR capability ranging from 250 or 1000 hours on standard plans, and is available on Roku, Apple TV, Amazon Fire TV, Chromecast, Samsung Smart TVs, Xbox One, Android TV, Android Smart TVs, and Android/iOS smartphones and tablets, with plans ranging from $24.99/month to $79.99/month (not including add-ons). They have also recently acquired one company and have made plans to acquire another to allow for in-house sports betting. They have stated in a press release that they plan to release a sportsbook before the end of the year. This will push them into a broader spectrum outside of only TV and sports streaming, and into the sports betting sector along with DraftKings ($DKNG), FanDuel ($PDYPY), and Penn National Gaming ($PENN). Plans and Add-ons FuboTV offers three standardized plans as of February 8, 2021: the Family plan is priced at $64.99/month (normally $75.97/month), Elite at $79.99/month (normally $100.95/month), and Latino Quarterly at $24.99/month, along with offering additional add-ons. Each plan offers a range of channels, cloud DVR capabilities (which allows fast-forwarding through commercials), and casting to multiple devices simultaneously. Only the Elite plan does not offer a 7-day free trial (Channels page). The Family plan includes 117 channels (mostly news and entertainment with roughly 40 that offer sports, including ESPN), up to 250 hours of DVR space, and casting to 3 devices at once. The quarterly prepaid includes a free upgrade to 1000 hours of DVR space and 5 casting devices at home with 3 on the go (Channels page). The Elite plan includes 164 channels (includes an additional “47 entertainment channels”), up to 1000 hours of DVR space, and casting to 5 devices at home with 3 on the go. This plan does not offer a quarterly prepaid (Channels page). The Latino Quarterly plan includes 250 hours of DVR space and can be streamed on up to 3 devices at once, but only has 32 channels. This plan needs to be prepaid every 3 months for a total charge of $74.97 and does not offer a monthly service (Channels page). Upgrades include additional DVR space--1000 hours for an additional $6.99/month for the Family and Latino Quarterly--and increased device casting--an additional 2 devices at home with 3 on the go for another $9.99/month for the Family and Latino Quarterly plans. You can also add a variety of channels and sports packages (the Latino Quarterly has fewer channel add-ons compared to the Family and Elite plans, which both have the same channel varieties). Sports Plus with NFL RedZone is an additional $10.99/month, but includes all professional and college sports broadcasting services for football, basketball, baseball, hockey, tennis, fighting, etc. (Channels page). Fubo has recently removed its former Standard plan, which included only 65 channels, up to 2 casting devices, and only 30 hours of DVR support for $60/month. Financials and Growth Fubo has yet to file an annual report as they have gone public in October of 2020, but they have filed a 10-Q for Q3 2020. All numbers in thousands. Assets- Between December 31, 2019 and September of 2020, assets have increased from $368,225 to $799,313 (a 117% increase) . Total current assets increased from $17,973 to $58,016, but accounts receivable decreased from $8,904 to $6,975--this may be attributed to the increase in prepaid subscriptions which increased from $1,445 to $12,177 which shows strong customer satisfaction and retention. Liabilities- Liabilities have increased from $145,049 to $290,376 (a 100% increase). The largest contributors to their liabilities are “Due to related parties” increasing from $665 to $85,847, “Warrant liabilities” increasing from $24 to $28,085, and “Accounts payable” from $36,373 to $61,679. Long-term borrowings have decreased from $43,982 to $25,905. Revenues- Subscription revenues increased by $53,433, totaling $92,945 for the year. Total revenues including advertisements and licensing have increased by $61,202, totaling $112,669 for the year and an increase of 47% YOY. Q4 revenue is estimated to be between $94,000 and $98,000 which would be a *77-84% *increase YOY. Expenses- Subscriber related expenses total $114,315 for the year. Total expenses have totaled $500,249 for the year. Subscribers- Ended Q3 with 455,000 paid subscribers, a YOY increase of 58%, and plans to end 2020 with over 545,000, an increase of 72% YOY. Competition Its closest competitors are Hulu + Live TV (owned by Disney ($DIS)), YouTube TV (owned by Alphabet ($GOOG)), and Sling TV (owned by Dish Network ($DISH)). Hulu + Live TV
Includes league networks
50 hours of free DVR (200 hours for $9.99/month)
More than 74 channels
Unskippable ads on DVR without upgrade to 200 hours
2 streams at a time
$64.99/month
Can add ESPN+ and Disney+ for an additional $7/month
YouTube TV
Includes league networks
Unlimited DVR storage
More than 85 channels plus YouTube Red Originals
3 streams at a time
Sports Plus package for an additional $10.99/month
NBA LeaguePass for an additional $40/month or $119.99 annually
Starting at $64.99/month
Sling TV Blue
Includes league networks
DVR up to 50 hours (200 hours for $5/month)
More than 45 channels
3 streams at a time
Sports Extra package for an additional $11/month
Starting $35/month
Can be combined with Sling TV Orange for a total of $50/month
Sling TV Orange
Includes league networks
DVR up to 50 hours (200 hours for $5/month)
More than 30 channels
1 stream at a time
Sports Extra package for an additional $11/month
Starting at $35/month
Can be combined with Sling TV Blue for a total of $50/month
Merger with FaceBank for $100 million revolving credit
Analysts and Estimates Average analyst ratings put Fubo at a Buy to Strong Buy rating with an average price target of $45.50 with a high of $60 and a low of $30. EPS estimates are estimated to be -5.23 for 2020 and -1.64 for 2021. Currently has a short float of about 75%, but the short volume has been holding at roughly 15-20% over the last month and has drastically declined from its October short volume of over 50%. Originally valued at $700 million less than a year ago, a current valuation of $3.19 billion is respectable for this company and is on par for its current performance. Risks
Marketing fails and Fubo is never known as a household name, so consumers stick with other more known providers
Their sportsbook fails and becomes dead weight and wasted money
Subscriber count and streaming drops as quarantine lifts, reducing revenues while maintaining expenses
Consumers opt for cheaper options
People paying for the sports package cancel when the season is over, creating a boom and bust cycle if not managed correctly
Final Thoughts / TL;DR With its drastic growth over the last year (400% in the last 4 months), support from FaceBank and well-known investors, and plans to join the sports betting sector, FuboTV has potential to become a household name and grow well beyond its current valuation by combining both sports broadcasting and online sports betting into one convenient place. Although unlikely to overthrow any of the current forces, it can become the best live sports broadcaster that people can turn to when they cut cable but want to keep live sports. It has many hurdles to overcome (creating their sportsbook, better marketing, increasing subscriber count, etc.) before it is any real competition to its already established competition. At a $3.19 billion market cap and very high (75%) short interest, it will be very difficult to realize consistent growth, but it is on par for a company with almost $100 million in revenue. My Position 25 shares at $47.30 Edit: edited final thoughts/TL;DR Please provide feedback! First time actually researching and compiling information for a company and not just reading about them on here. Also, please ask questions to clear up any confusion; it was kinda hard to put everything together neatly, so I might have accidentally left stuff out or oveunder explained some things.
What do you remember about the year of our lord 2020? Was it the isolation? Friends and family getting sick? Losing jobs because the economy crashed? Getting a positive COVID test becoming the new best excuse to ghost? The leader of the "free world" toying with overturning yet another liberal democracy? Nah, you don't remember any of that. Your year was spent on lockdowns, "working" from home, remote "learning," or unemployment. With so much time on your hands, you tried jerking off, but then they took away P*rnHub. Instead, you wasted your life away on GBCJ, reading troll posts with a morbid fascination. At first, you tried to rationalize reddit with a heavy dose of skepticism and some critical thinking. How could anyone spend so much time typing out questions on an open forum, than spending five second on Google? Why would they repeatedly upvote blatant lies? Or creating an environment that is so toxic? Slowly, you came to realize there is no hope. With the world on rolling lockdowns, hysterical bottoms had nowhere to spend their excess horny energy, but online. There is only one path if we want to return to normalcy. More than ever, we need to take PrEP believe in science, and hope the upcoming vaccine will make it safe enough for holes to go out and find their poles. Reddit will still be reddit, but hopefully with fewer bad takes, horrible trolls, and massive sexual frustration. Until then, a sample of some of the best OC and link posts of GBCJ in 2020. Comment below if we missed your fav.
"Some of you might remember how I accidentally discovered my 19 year old son is a gay by cornering him in the bathroom and forcing him to watch gay porn and touching his penis until it responded. I was really concerned about how my wife would react because she’s deeply homophobic." - GBCJ
My boyfriend snapped at my flatmate because he called him 'gurl'. - AGB
"So I just moved in with a flatmate who's also gay. He is quite feminine and does drag. A few days ago, my boyfriend was helping me move in my stuffs in the flat. My flatmate was there, and the first thing he said to him was, 'Hey gurl, what's up?' My boyfriend replied, 'I'm not gurl you fucking queen.'"
"Like a lot of the corporations who show support for pride month spread awareness, normalize it, and donate... I just honestly don’t see the problem in companies supporting lgbt for profit, as long as they’re doing the right thing." - AGB
"Now, Pornhub has deleted all my favorite videos, including but not limited to; 'Servicing the HVAC Guy', 'Servicing the HVAC Guy Again' and 'video of the HVAC guy's Wife Outside Bedroom Window Part 6'H." - GBCJ
Unpopular opinion: I shouldn’t be (and won’t ever be) guilt tripped into being sexually attracted to someone, whether they’re a minority or they’re trans or some other whack fake gender bs - AGB
"Whiny SJW activists shitting on anyone who states they’re not attracted to trans people or PoC. It is your right to not be forced or guilt tripped into being attracted to someone / a group of people you wouldn’t normally be attracted to. You’re not racist or transphobic."
"will I be considered racist if I have a preference for guys with light skin tone and vice versa? Sometimes, I feel like everything I do is already racist even though I did not intend to be racist."
How can you stop projecting your bottom mentality into your life? - AGB
"Like, how can you want to act assertive in your real life when you get treated like a cumdump in bed? How can you separate your sex life from your personal life?"
"He wished the two of us could 'talk...' I usually just want to sleep or smoke. Billy’s a right convenient piece of ass since he’s just down the road, but this talkin’ stuff . . . I dunno. Sounds kinda queer to me." - GBCJ
"Having to constantly tell everyone around me every day all day long that I’m not gay for listening to straight women artists whose imagery is often intentionally created to appeal specifically to my straight cis male gaze is just so hard." - GBCJ
After going to a drag show, "I woke up the next morning. I had glitter fingernail polish on my fingers, all my sneakers have been replaced with high heels, my room was covered with Britney posters, and there was a big black butt plug in my ass. I screamed and femme EEEEEEEEE shriek came out." - GBCJ
"Since there have been so many Family Dick stories on AGB this week, I thought it would be best to combine them all in digest form... TL/DR: Hot mess." - GBCJ
Secretly sucked my first dick, it was from a professor and It was so delicious and I'm happy. - AGB
"I always had a fetish for teachers. I'm 20 and I'm in college dorm. He is the kind of teacher that is chill, not strict and friendly so many liked him so much and finally, yesterday, he let me suck him. It was fun, seeing the pleasure in his eyes and the taste, wow."
"Is it possible that he likes me? Perhaps love transcends beyond biological sex. After a few too many, I let it slip that i was gay. He leaned in close to me, and I foolishly tried to kiss him. I know I should have asked first." - GBCJ
"Anyone else has fantasies of their sex partner dying during intercourse and you telling their family 'your son died taking my dick' or an I the only one here?"
When I told my ex his natural body odor turned me on he called me weird. Now my current boyfriend doesn't wear deodorant when he is around me and lends me his underwear and shirts - GB
It sucks being out of shape and mostly attracted to fit guys and realize you have to get in shape so you can attract them, but I guess that’s the right way to do it - AGB
Advice: "You can also find other out of shape guys to be with." OP: "But I don’t wanna 😫"
We need more advocation for gay men who choose not to act on their attractions - AGB
"I’m happy living as a celibate man. When I made the choice to foresake men, I felt this inner confirmation that I was doing the right thing, as if it was a message from God telling me I should not act on my same sex attraction."
30 year olds are not considered "older guys" - AGB
"Most of those posts are from people wondering why "older guys" won'troses fuck them. Probably because they are embarrassed to be in the presence of retarded people."
"So I’m an insatiable horny bottom... My boyfriend, a blouse top, can’t keep up with me. I think some Tina would do the job, however, I’m afraid he’s too much of a prude to try it. How should I go about it? I have needs!" - GBCJ
I thought my coworker was gay and kissed him, now I’m in trouble for sexual harassment? - GB
"I fantasized daily about dating him, it was so severe that I ruined a friendship with someone who was a mutual friend just so I could snoop through her phone to get his Snapchat info (she refused to give it me so I had no choice because I was too shy to ask him). At work once we were having a great time hanging out in his car for our break, and I suddenly made my move and kissed him. Turns out he’s straight I apologized but he still told everyone at work about it, and the store director said I’ll be reprimanded for sexual harassment."
"[I]t’s Saturday and I think I’m having early symptoms of GRIDS. I woke up with a throbbing headache and I’m having trouble breathing. I’ve also lost my sense of smell, and I’m coughing uncontrollably." - GBCJ
I'm tired of this hoe culture. The onlyfans accounts, the hookups only, the demand for nudes when youre flirting. It's honestly really unattractive and I have no idea why so many take part in it.
After slut-shaming fellow gays for posting nudes and having OnlyFans in front of the straights, OP is back with new thirst traps to advertise her own smut.
You see him from across the room as you get your peanut butter shot: a salty E-2 whose six weeks of working in a restricted line like the supply corps while sitting in an air-conditioned office in Qatar have made him into a grizzled veteran. You bond over your mutual PTSD: he is traumatised by his platoon leader's PT obsession, you are traumatised by finding out that your str8 top football player dl boyfriend from your Texas high school isn't so straight after all and is now in a healthy relationship with another boy at the University of Texas. "Why not me?!" you wail, as his protective instincts kick in and he takes you, with an aneros deep inside his asshole, in your six-to-a-man rack. Right after boot, you marry him in order to obtain permission to move out of enlisted bachelor's quarters. Although you have known each other for eight weeks, you determine that this is as good as a lifetime of dating experience until, one night, he asks if you want to flip fuck. You realize he is vers, and therefore not the str8 top you deserve. You cry for a time. You then become the base cum dump and, in this way, find your true love: A real str8 SEAL top with a wife and kids that has murdered at least 6 green beans à la Logan Melgar. As a dependa, Navy wife and active service member, you demand that your husband’s platoon leader hold a mast on your contrived charges of spousal abuse, the marks of which are actually just from your str8 SEAL top’s insistence upon rough sex that leaves you with bruises. You discreetly marry your str8 SEAL top while deployed in Iraq. You wear your best drag costume to the wedding, which is presided over by an imam of the religion of peace. Your husband’s platoon leader shrugs and accepts the status-quo in case it harms his Fox News contract after he gets ETS’d in a year, and also because he doesn’t feel like dealing with argumentative JAGs whose entire legal careers are subject to the whims of various knee-jerk administrations. After the wedding, the local Terries whisk you up the stairs of a five-story building. You are momentarily frightened. “Don’t they push local homosexuals off of these?” you discreetly ask yourself. As you slowly follow a chain of Chinese lanterns and rose petals, you realize that you are the actual bigot and that all of the travel blogs maintained by upper middle class blonde women from Ohio are right: the Middle East is perfectly safe for gays and naïve college-aged women. To your delight, the Terries have thrown you a party on the rooftop of their local mosque. Your husband shoots another Green Beret in celebration of your love. You then have a spontaneous orgy with OPFOR tops. After you return from deployment with four new medals, you realize that something is still wrong. As your husband carries you through the threshold of your San Diego ranch house while dressed in your finest burqa in order to introduce you to his first wife, you encounter your greatest enemy yet: homophobia. “Jesus Christ,” she yells, “do either of you realize how offensive this situation is?” Acknowledging her indoctrination by the evil and violent Methodist Church – why else would she be screaming “Jesus!” and “Lord help me!” – your str8 SEAL top husband rushes to your defense by screaming “TALAQ TALAQ TALAQ”, thereby immediately divorcing her. The Navy JAG accepts this as a valid form of divorce in order to avoid yet another lawsuit over religious beliefs. She packs up her things and moves out. You see her three weeks later working as a local bar wench in Daisy Duke’s. As you explore your new home, you realize that your husband’s closet is composed of nothing but a single pair of dress blues, cryes and t-shirts from OAF Nation. That bitch ex-wife of his has left so many of her clothes. “How odd, I didn’t realize she had such big feet for being a 5’5” woman,” you think to yourself. It then hits you. These size 13 powder pink heels aren’t for her, they’re for your husband. He is secretly trans, but cannot come out of the closet because of the president’s ban on trans service members. “He lied to me!” you wail. “He said he loved me and that he was a str8 top and now this?!” It is at this moment that you realize you must be the strong, powerful bottom you are and make a moral stand. You report all of his murders to the JAG, who subsequently arrests him before President Trump grants him a pardon because of “muh SEALs”. At the end of his contract, he is ETS'd because guys in his unit are totally freaked out by how often he wants to piss with them and you then, as a brave and powerful bottom, turn him in for his crimes and are rewarded with a blue-to-gold contract. He then transitions into the woman you always knew he was on the inside. You end your days standing on the bow wrapped in nothing but your dress blues and a shawl, staring out into the wine blue sea, mourning for his mythical top penis before you throw yourself off your ship after concluding that your life was over at the elderly age of 25 and that you would never find such love again. Everyone claps. Xtina gives the eulogy at your funeral.
Is Gaybros suppose to be something substantial or am I missing something? - AGB
"They say they are a community of unconventional gay guys who don’t confirm to the media stereotype but all the top posts are unfunny memes taken from basic gay insta pages and the only sports related posts turn into a discussion of which athletes they’d like to top them. At least on this sub there is on occasion an interesting discussion, gaybros just seems like a bunch of a bottoms who just want to get fucked by a masc guy."
Are subs like gaybroscirclejerk just dedicated to mocking people in general? - AGB
The second, and the most upvoted post from the AGB feud of 2020 (first post) that kicked off because a few disgruntle AGB users complained at AGB to underwhelming effect.
I know the sub isn't too centered on coaching, but here's something I threw together over the last few days and I thought I'd post it here. Open to feedback on it. Using LTAD to Gain Perspective Before beginning, it’s worth looking at the Long Term Athlete Development model (LTAD). Using broad strokes, the LTAD paints a picture of the different psychological and physical phases that young athletes go through, and prescribes general guidelines to follow to ensure proper athletic development occurs. The underlying motif of the LTAD is that the best sportspeople in the world (think Messi, Federer, Williams, Rapinoe, etc.) all have one thing in common: they’re great athletes. Therefore, at the young ages it’s not about creating the best soccer player, instead it’s about creating the best athlete so they can go on and choose to become a great soccer player when it’s appropriate for them to specialize. The LTAD suggests that young athletes need to be exposed to a variety of physical movements (throwing, kicking, dribbling, running, jumping, etc.) over the course of a sports season. I don’t dispute this, but here in the United States we have distinct sports seasons throughout the calendar year. Fall offers soccer, football, swimming, and cross-country; winter offers basketball, wrestling, and volleyball; spring offers baseball, softball, track and tennis. Most young American athletes choose to participate in many sports over a 12-month span, thus they will be exposed to different movement patterns. This makes your job as a youth coach easier because you can focus on coaching movement within your sport, as opposed to developing a wider kinesthetic approach. Although it’s worth adding that knowing the profile of your typical athlete is important - if your team is made up of players who play soccer year-round and nothing else then the movement patterns you teach should be broader in nature to ensure full athletic development occurs. It seems that this situation occurs rarely within the United States as most players sample different sports, and don’t commit to football academies at the age of 8 -- which is what you see happening at European clubs. The fundamental athletic skills that need to be taught at this age are the ABC’s: Agility, Balance, and Coordination. Don’t let this overwhelm you though. There’s no need to set-up complex cone patterns for kids to jump over or lay agility ladders out for players to quick-step through. Most of these ABC’s can be taught through skill acquisition - i.e. players learning how to dribble, pass, shoot, etc. - simply because soccer is a sport that’s played with your feet. Everytime you pass, shoot or receive the ball you’re implicitly working on balance and coordination. U6-U8 Soccer Player Development Players at this age are entering what is called the “golden age” of development. Where they can acquire new skills easily for present and future application. It’s similar to learning a second language -- it’s easier to do when you’re younger. As stated above, at these age groups you want to focus on the fundamental skills that are present within soccer: dribbling, passing, shooting, receiving, etc. For U6 and U7 players on average, it is better to focus on dribbling and shooting skills. These players want to have the ball at their feet and they want to score goals. Asking them to pass the ball can run counter to what their idea of fun is. Even if they willingly do so, it’s usually more enjoyable for them to have the ball and score goals. As players approach the U8 level, they may have a better understanding of how to pass the ball, when to pass the ball, where to pass, etc. Once players have enough control of the ball to actually be aware of the players around them (and this can happen before U8 as well) you can start incorporating games into the training environment that focus on passing. Creating the Right Environment A lot of athletic development through soccer will occur naturally if you create the right conditions for the young athletes to play and learn. So the question becomes: How do you create the right conditions? Now I could just share with you the sessions I run with U8 and younger players, but instead I’m going to share with you the general principles I use to create a session plan. This will be more helpful for a few different reasons. First, the number of players you have is a huge factor. What may work with 4 players would not work with 7. If I give you a session plan for 6 players, but you have 14 players show up, then that only results in you wasting your time and me not helping you. Second, two brains are better than one... and three are better than two, and four are better than three, and so on. If you run my session plan then that denies you the potential opportunity to run something better. Something that suits your strengths, something that allows for more creativity and is better adapted to the players you have. Third, it may take longer in the short-run for you to learn and apply these principles, but it saves time in the long-run. The good news is that these principles don’t take long to understand and synthesize your own ideas from. Instead of spending an hour finding exercises on YouTube and other websites you will be able to create better tailored exercises for the players you have in half the time. Fourth, these principles are the fundamental building blocks all of the sessions I run from U7 boys to college-aged women. If you can master these principles at the youngest ages (which in my mind can be the hardest groups to coach at times) then you will be set-up to run high-quality sessions with other teams, and potentially share your knowledge with the other coaches around you. Let’s dive in. The Principles
Maximize playing time This is the biggest mistake I see coaches make. U6-U8 players come to training sessions to be active and to play soccer. If coaches keep stopping players to give corrections and feedback, or spend a long time explaining games, then players become disinterested-- and at the U6-U8 age range, a disinterested player becomes very hard to manage. To maximize playing time it’s important to plan out your sessions so you know what games you’re going to run and where the equipment needs to be.
Limit instructions Limiting instructions goes hand-in-hand with the first point, but it also captures a larger concept. Players want to be engaged with, not simply told what to do. That’s why formal coach education courses stress the importance of being a role model and a mentor. Young kids get told what to do constantly. There seems to be less and less freedom given to young players (especially those within middle-class white families who contribute the most players to US youth soccer) as they’re constantly being told what is allowed and what’s not. Soccer should be a form of expression, where kids can experiment and be themselves without fear of retribution. With U6-U8 players they will need instructions, there’s no doubt about it, but it should be in terms of where they can go, the rules of the game, and what type of social behavior is allowed. Everything else within the exercise should be fair game. When coaching is required you want to use different questioning methods to engage players and stretch their knowledge to new limits.
Use correct player-to-ball ratio Players want to score goals and dribble the ball. At this age, their psychological development limits their ability to perceive other people’s perceptions. In layman’s terms it is: “me” not “we.” There is a reason why most kids don’t want to play defense. In their head, being a forward or midfielder means they can score goals and get the ball, while being on defense means staying back and being bored (this is an incorrect understanding of defense though which will be built upon later). To keep kids interested, and to aid in physical and technical development, play games that maximize player touches on the ball. Instead of doing line exercises -- where a player dribbles down to a cone, circles around it, then dribbles back and gives the ball to the next kid in line -- give every player a ball and have them practice dribbling at the same time. Most games should have a player-to-ball ratio that is somewhere between 1:1 and 2:1.
The L’s Most coaches have heard of the 4 L’s. Namely, that there should be no Laps, Lines, Lectures, or eLimination games. All of these reflect the first two principles mentioned, but it’s a handy way to remind yourself of what occurs in a well-run session. The last L, no elimination games, is a huge component of a good session. Most elimination games, like Sharks and Minnows, directly work against what should be happening. The players who are bad at dribbling, and who need the most experience, usually lose their ball first. That robs them of the opportunity to improve a necessary skill. Meanwhile, the player who is good at dribbling stays in the game, gets more touches, and continues to improve. Instead of creating whole new games though, you can make small alterations to already popular games. In Sharks and Minnows, the rule change could be that sharks try to take a minnow’s ball, and once they do so then they become a minnow. Now instead of having players lose their ball for the rest of the game, they have an opportunity to get a ball back. Now only does this result in more touches for each player, it translates better to the actual game of soccer because players are trying to win the ball back, not just kick it out of bounds.
Play-Practice-Play Methodology There are different methodologies within coaching soccer. However, there seems to be a lack of clarity about what exactly a coaching methodology is. I use the term to describe how exercises within a training session should be organized to best suit the developmental needs of the players. One of these methodologies is the Whole-Part-Whole, or Play-Practice-Play, methodology, and it is best-suited for young players. The name in itself describes how the training session should flow. Essentially, your training session is divided into thirds. In the first third, players begin scrimmaging as they arrive. In the second third, an exercise is run that focuses on a technical aspect of player development (such as dribbling, passing, or shooting). In the final third, you return to a scrimmage. Starting with a scrimmage gets players excited about coming to practice, easily incorporates players who arrive late, and transitions them into a learning environment. The Practice Component Even though the second phase is called “practice,” at the U6-U8 level the practice part should still look like a game. For these games you want to do your best to ensure that they reflect the principles mentioned above; namely that kids are active and maximizing touches on the ball. Traditional games can be modified to meet these criteria. A game I use to teach different dribbling skills is a modification of Freeze Tag. Each player has their own ball. The coach goes around trying to touch each player’s soccer ball. If their ball is touched then they become frozen and have to stand with one foot on the ball. They become unfrozen when another player nutmegs them (dribbles the ball between their legs), or touches the frozen player’s ball with their ball, or does another action that involves ball control. After the “practice” component is complete you can move back to the scrimmage. While this methodology is called Play-Practice-Play, it doesn’t necessarily have to be constrained to such a formula. Young children have short attention spans and need to participate in dynamic environments to hold their interest. This can be difficult for some coaches because they feel they can only run a game for 5-10 minutes before setting up and moving to a new one. The Play-Practice-Play methodology allows you to switch up the activities while limiting the amount of equipment to be used. If the players you’re working with need more variance than the Play-Practice-Play methodology calls for, you can break up the training into shorter time segments. I’ve run sessions that went Play-Practice-Play-Practice-Play. As long as you focus on maximizing touches on the ball and keeping players active in a fun environment then you’ll do fine. Teaching New Exercises Teaching a new exercise to a group of players is typically understated in terms of how difficult it can be. But there is a system that you can use to make this process smoother; it’s called the Tell-Show-Tell method. Much like the Play-Practice-Play methodology, this method is self-explanatory in its name. The first step when explaining a new exercise is to Tell players what they will be doing. Highlight the most important aspects as concisely as possible. When I’m teaching the Freeze Tag game that I mentioned earlier, my Tell section goes like this; “Each player will have their own ball. If I touch your ball with my foot then you are frozen, and you must stand with one foot on your ball. You cannot move until one of your teammates dribbles their ball between your legs.” The second step is the Show part. After giving a brief explanation of how the game operates you will then have two players step in front of the group and demonstrate it. You will touch one of the player’s soccer balls, they will freeze, and the other player will unfreeze them by nutmegging them. While the exercise is being demonstrated in front of the group you will Tell them what they will be doing one more time using the same language that you first used. At the end of it, players will have been primed on what to look for, and then they will see the game in action as the rules are explained to them. A great youth coach in the American system will be able to explain a game and get the players playing it in two minutes or less. Chaotic Learning This concept is one of the hardest to grasp. Not because it’s particularly challenging or complex, but because it hurts our ego (or perhaps this is just how I feel). There’s a prototypical image that exists in our mind of what good player development looks like: players are focused, executing techniques cleanly, and moving intricately with seemingly no effort. We all want to be good coaches so we all want our training sessions, and our players, to look like they’re top tier. Ignoring the apparent and obvious (that a tiny, tiny, tiny percentage of coaching opportunities even reside in the top tier) there’s a good case to make that the best learning experiences a child has don’t even look that clean-cut. I don’t want to get too deep into the weeds here, but I’ll give a rough synopsis of what learning environments can look like. There’s really two ends of the spectrum; one’s called block practice and the other is random practice. Blocked practice is the stereotypical repetition-based way of improvement in sport. It’s the equivalent of a coach asking a basketball player to make fifty free throws before leaving practice. Random practice is the near-opposite of blocked practice. Random practice creates an environment that focuses on variance. Practicing free throws using random practice would mean you shoot from the free throw line, then you shoot two steps closer, then you shoot on the elbows, then you shoot from the free throw line again but the hoop is at 9.5 feet. Random practice creates “cognitive variance,” which is essentially saying it makes your brain work harder, and this creates deeper learning. Many studies have been conducted that show random practice is better for learning than blocked practice. I’m putting this section in here because when you’re choosing which exercises to run during the practice phase of your session, you actually want to avoid anything that looks too structured. Instead of running a 1v1 game with only two players playing in a box at a time, let everybody play at once. It will be chaotic, it will look out of control, but from that mania learning and skill acquisition will occur. What makes this concept hard to grasp is that it can look like bad coaching where players are running around instead of doing rote repetition-based exercises. But in reality it gets players more touches on the ball, gets all of the players to be active, is more fun for the players to play, and is actually better for their development. Correct Demonstration Knowing how and when to give feedback is a crucial part of the coaching process. For these youngest players, who are still understanding the link between language and body awareness, your best teaching method will be demonstrations. A good demonstration will engage a player, correct their technique, and guide them toward a successful action outcome-- and it’s possible to do all of this without even saying a word. Similar to the Tell-Show-Tell method, this coaching tool has three distinct phases as well. Let’s pretend you’re trying to get players to use the sole of their foot during a Freeze Tag game but one player keeps hitting it with their toe. You go over to the player and: Step 1: Give a correct demonstration of using the sole of your foot. Step 2: Demonstrate what the player was doing (kicking with their toe) Step 3: Give another correct demonstration of using the sole of your foot Most of these young players learn best through observation, and using demonstrations leverages that to your advantage. The process works because the players get to use you as an analog and see how what they’re doing is different from what’s being asked of them. It can be a minimally invasive coaching tool that keeps games flowing and only takes 15 seconds of the player’s attention, which aligns with the key principle of maximizing playing time for the player. As a side note, you don’t want to halt a game to address what only one player is doing. It ruins the flow of the game for all of the players, and they’re forced to stand there while you address a single player. There are “natural stoppages” that occur during training sessions (ex: water breaks and dead balls) where it may be worth making an individual coaching point because you believe the group will benefit as a whole to be reminded of, or given, the information. Although that’s not a main concern for working with players this young. Playing with U6-U8 Players At some point, you, or an assistant coach, will have to play with these young players. I’ve seen coaches operate on two opposite endpoints during these moments. The first coach plays easy. Where players dribble by them, dribbles the ball between their legs, kicks the ball twenty yards and then accelerates faster than the coach to get to it. The second coach plays on the other end of the spectrum. Where the young player can’t even touch the ball because the coach is dribbling around and juggling the ball over them. Now I want to be clear. None of these are necessarily wrong. The main objective for this age group is to have fun. There are times when it’s fun for young players to beat up on adult coaches. Players can also have fun trying their hardest to take the ball away from the coach. They enjoy seeing cool dribbling and juggling tricks, and they also enjoy trying to do cool things on their own. So it’s not a “never do these things” suggestion because there are times when it is appropriate. But there’s also a happy middleground that can be used to aid player learning when the environment and atmosphere is correct for it. The middleground area is created when a coach takes away an opportunity and provides a clear alternative for the player. Now we want to maximize a player’s technical ability on the ball, so the defensive positioning of the coach is incredibly salient at this point. Perhaps an example best describes this: A young player is working on shooting the ball while the coach plays as a goalkeeper. The first coach plays easy. The player hits the shot, it goes right at the coach, and the coach makes a big show of missing the ball with their hands as it rolls through their legs and over the goal line. The second coach shows no mercy. Every shot is saved, and they will occasionally make (unnecessary) acrobatic dives to keep the ball out of the net. The third coach positions themselves towards the right side of the goal. Any shot hit at them is saved. Any shot that the player hits toward the left side of the goal goes in. The third coach exists in the middleground between the first two. It is up to the player to recognize the situation and the decisions available to them, and then they have to execute the right technique to materialize their choice. It gives a very clear framework for a coach to determine whether a player’s action should be deemed sufficient or not. It also helps a coach figure out what technical area a player needs to improve on, and where they are at reading the game. “Tactical” Things to Look For Now at this level, reading the game for a 7 year-old will look very rudimentary. Which is fine and where they should be. The emphasis should be on technical development, not trying to get the kids to play in a certain system or formation. At this age group, players should not be playing more than 4v4. If you want a good 4v4 player then they have to be aware of themselves and at least three other players. But for U6 to U8 players, they will struggle to understand just one other player. And I say this with a grain of salt because most 6 year-olds will only be able to focus on their relationship with the ball; an 8-year old will be able to focus on their relationship with the ball as well as the defender that’s closest to them. There’s a lot of leeway within this age group because physical and psychological development can occur so rapidly. Therefore the first “tactical” thing to look for is simply having everybody involved with the play. One of the biggest issues I consistently see is that a player gets told they are a defender and then they end up sitting in front of their goal for the rest of the game. That behooves nobody; it robs the kid of any opportunities to get touches on the ball, it keeps them from being active, and it’s boring for the player. To some extent, you want to see players bunch up around the ball because that forces them to practice dribbling. Then it becomes your job to teach them which dribbling skills to use, when to use them, and why to use them. For me, close control of the ball should come before passing. Once you see your players grasp fundamental close control skills, you can start teaching them the basics of what “spreading out” means. I see a lot of coaches do the opposite; where players get told to spread out and pass, and it can make the team look good, but it’s short-term in nature. What really happens is these kids memorize where to pass the ball as opposed to recognize situations. When they get older, even at the ages of 10 and 11 (where players have the attentional and physical capacity to control the ball while recognizing situations involving one or more player), they’ll play against teams who can pass the ball as well, or potentially better, than their team can (because of the said ability to recognize when to pass vs when to dribble), and a majority of the opposition players will have better close ball-control skills. That is the ideal stage of development, but there is a sequential order to it because it’s rooted in the physical and cognitive abilities that develop as players get older. It’s possible to skip a step in the short-run, but it will create larger problems in the long-run. There are some things that are worth looking at for coaching U6-U8 players that haven’t been discussed here, because they overlap with coaching other age groups. These are things like: designing sessions, giving feedback, managing the playing environment, etc. Because they overlap all age groups I’m going to write separate sections for each of those, as opposed to putting it in each Ultimate Coaching Guide, so keep your eye out as those are published.
Looks like it’s that time again. A complete list of AB’s previous transgressions.
Some users are beginning to engage in the AB wish casting again. To discourage people from overlooking AB’s established pattern of erratic, unstable, destructive behavior, this list needs to be posted from time to time. So if you’re thinking AB’s past behavior is not that bad, or that it can be handled, please review the following list first. Credit to u/ForYeWhoArtLiterate for compiling this information: • Drove 100 down McKnight Road in Pittsburgh, which has a 45 MPH speed limit • Trashed a condo and threw furniture out a window 14th floor window, which almost hit some people, notably a child • Killed a home aquarium full of piranhas and refused to pay the man who installed the tank • Refused to play week 17 for the Steelers • Dyed his mustache blonde • Refused to pay a chef because he thought he threatened him by placing a fish head in the freezer (the fish head was saved to make a soup) • Farted on a doctor • Demanded a trade from the Steelers • Became "Mr. Big Chest" • Threw a fit over Juju winning team MVP and trashed him on social media • (Allegedly) nixed a trade that would've sent him to the Bills • Showed up to Raiders training camp in a hot air balloon • Held out and refused to show up to training camp because the NFL would not approve his helmet because it was too old for their safety standards • Froze his feet • Tried to paint over his old helmet, hoping no one would notice I guess • Acquired a newer version of the same model of helmet, which the NFL refused to let him use • Picked out a new helmet and finally showed up to the Raiders • Got fined by the Raiders for not attending camp • Tweeted the fines • Tried to fight Mike Mayock, called him a cracker, had to be held back by Vontaze Burfict, then punted a football down the practice field and said "fine me for that" • Got fined for that • Released a video where he used audio of Jon Gruden, who didn't know he was being recorded, which is illegal in California (full disclosure, Gruden has said he gave permission, but the generally accepted theory is that he said that in the hope that it would help get him to show up to the facility and not alienate him) • Demanded a release from the Raiders • Was released • "GRANDMA I’M FREEEEEE! FLY LIKE A FREEEEE!" • Made a lot of crazy tweets saying stuff like 'Devil is a lie', a proverb about burning down a village... he made a lot of crazy tweets around this time is the point here • Liked a tweet about Mayock getting raped in the ass • Signed with the Patriots • Moved in with Tom Brady • The sexual assault allegations came out (the one where he's getting sued) • The sexual harassment allegations came out (the one where he's not getting sued) • Threatened the woman not suing him in a group text that included his lawyer and had a picture of her kids in the text • Got released by the Patriots after one week • Went off on a tweet storm and said a lot of crazy shit about a lot of people, and was supportive of people sending threats to the writer of the article detailing the sexual harassment allegations • Said he was done with the NFL • Went back to college via online classes • Tried to outsource his homework to Twitter • Wants to come back to the NFL • Filed several grievances to try and get more than $40 million from the Raider's and Patriots • Was ordered to show up for a deposition regarding trashing the condo • Was accused of "reprehensible behavior" during the deposition (which is it's own insane thread, btw), which included, but was not limited too:
"Arrived nearly 30 minutes late to the deposition."
“[C]hanted, over and over, as if a mantra, a narrative of his own warped concept of the proceeding”.
“Acting as if he was above the rule of law, [Brown] proceeded to make a mockery of the deposition process. [Brown’s] antics were so unreasonable that barely twenty [20] minutes into the deposition, his counsel asked for a break [so] he could speak with [Brown] about his demeanor.
“After approximately 20-30 minutes, [Brown] required another break. When the deposition resumed [Brown] increased his level of obstructive behavior. At one point, [Brown] refused to answer any questions, instead saying “next question” no less than 10 times.”
“Soon thereafter, [Brown] started announcing a countdown, starting at ‘five (5) minutes,’ and counting down the minutes thereafter. Before noon [Brown] left the conference room.”
• Said that the Patriots have to pay him anyway, so they might as well let him play • Tweeted a couple of bizarre tweets about the Raiders using him for HBO ratings and the Patriots trying to steal his stuff and kept using this weird chicken based metaphor • Tried out for the Saints and brought an entourage and film crew to shoot a music video with him when specifically told not to do that • Called out Robert Kraft for his rub and tug massage session in Florida • Starting training for a boxing match with Logan Paul • Tweeted "No more white woman 2020" • The attorney representing him in the suit involving the condo quit • Used a bunch of slurs and profane language towards cops in an Instagram video he posted • A police youth football league cut ties with him and returned a donation after the release of the video saying there was a "irreparable rift" between the department and AB • Threw a bag of gummy candy dicks at the cops in a video he posted • Got dropped by his agent • Was involved in a disputed with movers at his home where he allegedly threw rocks at the movers and moving vans. He is currently being investigated for battery by the police. • His trainer was arrested and he is still a suspect in the battery case. • Warrant issued for the arrest of AB. • AB turns himself in to Broward Country Jail wearing this suit • Rumors spread about AB signing with Tampa or Seattle • AB announces his retirement (for what I believe is the third time, it's hard to find a good record of the rest of them) • Two days later AB wants to play again and is asking for the league to wrap up it's investigation
The tires of a heavily armored car bounced and rattled against the rocky and snow covered trail, leading further into the thick snow covered woodlands with a convoy following behind. Inside the miniature tank was a league of worried faces, a sickening dread polluted the silent air. Decorated in thick steel grey mesh and armor, some members fiddled with their weapons while others stared at the roof wondering if they’d make it home to their families, uttering prayers under their breath. Only days before they were sent, on the eve of Christmas, another team had been sent to the isolated village of Moria, Alaska to investigate rumors of domestic cannibalism. Reports came in of missing people in the area all the time, first they were thought to be eaten by wild animals or died from hypothermia, lost in the endless forest that surrounded them, but one college student doing research about village culture brought the extent of the issue to light. He had gone in with four other friends, which by his account “were eaten by those sick fucks” before dying from blood loss due to the injuries he sustained. After this incident the Alaskan Special Task Force sent out a single, fairly small squad composed of experienced heavily trained members under the management of Sargent Anders Torvik. From that vocation, only one distress call had been issued and received that simply read; ASTF - Distress call from Delta 4 We don’t know how much longer we can hold them at bay, there’s too many, send backup ASAP. The whole town is involved and became hostile upon first contact, they aren’t human anymore. We already lost Sarg and a few others, send the whole fucking army if you have to, just wipe this hell off the face of the earth. Transmission end. Throughout the message, banging and grunts of presumed other unit members were heard. The identity of the sender is presumed to be Private Lowell from vocal recognition, any further attempts to reach out to Delta squad was met with no response, all ten members are presumed KIA until further knowledge is acquired. Originally, a small recon squad was sent on December, 23rd with the purpose of acting as new residents to discover if the rumors were true, deemed unofficially Operation Carnivore. Communication with the unit went dark after roughly five hours after contact, prompting a follow up expenditure with two purposes. One was to discover the whereabouts of recon members with the goal of bringing them home and the other was to detain and arrest any residents who were found participating in cannibalistic activities, lethal force is permitted if necessary. This duty fell onto unit Delta 4, their first and last mission. Lowell played with his christmas tree keychain, which dangled carelessly from his newly brandished Colt M4 carbine. The keychain was a gift from his mother, imprinted on the back a message from her, “Be the best man you can be, love Mom.” He was anxious as this was his first real mission on the field since training. Being born and raised in Ontario by a single Mother, things were always easy for him. Gifted with being physically fit enough to excel in football during his high school life and smart enough to achieve an A in most classes. Only during his senior year that his Mother asked him, “What do you wanna do with your life?” This question never crossed his mind before, perplexed by even the thought of committing to an office job for the rest of his life. What was there to do? There were the high paying jobs like financing that could have given him a comfy living in return for his soul for the six years of college, or the ones that don’t pay well but allow for a far more creative mind and complex thoughts. Neither seemed appealing, all Lowell wanted to do was to help others who couldn’t help themselves. From that day he started training his body and mind to join the police. The police academy went quick, scoring well above average on mental and physical exams. Nearing the end, he was approached by a government official with a proposition. Due to Lowell’s stellar performance in weapon handling, sharpshooting, concentration, and most importantly his ability to keep a cool head even in the most intense situations, he was offered to join a secretive government program. It was titled the Alaskan Special Task Force, an over the top name for what is necessarily a hit squad for threats the government deems too dangerous. His squad was to have one month training before any missions were issued and was serving with nine other men. After gladly accepting, he left the police academy and was moved to the barracks that he would share with his brothers in arms. His commanding officer Sargent Torvik was the oldest, grey strands starting to invade his short brown hair. He would soon become like a father to Lowell, giving him the role model he never had during their short time together. Due to his age, he was experienced and that alone is what made him a great leader. Torvik had seen whole leagues of men die in his time, many of them were his own responsibility which only further strengthened his resolve to protect those who followed in his wake. Lowell slept next to the smallest member in the squad, both in stature and weight. Although he made up for it in dedication to his job and was considered the role model soldier, the name Raines was proudly printed on his uniform. He had been in the police with Torvik so they knew each other pretty well, unofficially the second in command. Sleeping in the bunks above them, sat a pair of brothers who had joined the police together only a couple years ago, playing cards across the bunks. They looked almost identical and with nothing else to do after college, joined the force. While Raines was introducing himself, he was interrupted by one of them who waved and warmly declared himself to be Mallory, his brother named Bridger. The four bunkmates became friends over the next month, bonding through stories from the past and the hardships they endured during their difficult, special training. Their first mission together came on the 24th. The squad was to infiltrate Moria and figure out what had happened to the reconnaissance members. Although not the first option, their guns were live and carried real rounds. The morning of the mission was a dreary one, heavy snow blanketed most the roads and roofs. Lowell and his unit prepared themselves, stepping outside to enter the transport vehicle. The air was oddly calm, snow sprinkling from the sky. He stuck out his tongue, catching a single snowflake before Mallory slapped him hard on his back and climbed into the truck. This was it, his first mission since joining and the only thing he could think of was his mom and home. Their mobile fortress stopped half a mile before the village, Sargent Torvik stood up and began to address the squad loudly: “I know it’s Christmas eve and none of you want to be here but we have a mission to do! This is what we’ve been preparing for and I don’t want to tell any of your families that they lost their son the day before Christmas either! Remember your training and let’s find out what is going on here. Move out!” A roaring cheer echoed through the truck as Torvik opened the door to the outside. A heavy wind smacked the unit as they climbed out, the cold's bitter grasp enveloping them. The half mile journey was a quiet one with the sound of snow crunching under heavy duty boots filling the space, guns pointed in every direction, ready for anything. Each officer was equipped with a standard grade semi-automatic assault rifle with three extra mags on their belt, a standard issue pistol with two more clips, snow goggles, a tactical knife, and a short distance walkie talkie to communicate with each other and truck. Mallory was considered the team medic and carried only a knife, pistol and first aid materials in his bag. Torvik also carried a strip of five hand grenades, “just in case” as he put it. Only two drivers stayed behind to guard the vehicle, if that was lost then it would have been days of walking to get back to the nearest city. Soon Torvik raised his hand in a closed fist signaling everyone to stop and look forward. An aged wooden sign read, “Welcome to Moria, Please Enjoy Your Stay.” The town consisted of many small sized homes surrounding a town square. Some were made of thatch roofs and log walls while the larger ones had hardened clay. An odd smooth stone natural to the area was used to walk on. Insulation wasn’t the best but worked as well as it needed to. Moira had been around for centuries, dating back to biblical times and mentioned in the bible as where Lucifer’s children ran free. A large logging community had once taken residence there, harvesting the wood to grow out the village while also bringing commerce and new faces into the isolated town. Soon after a large church had been built in the village square, the residents started to push away any outsiders, the logging stopped, cutting off any need or reason to go there for most. Soon after, residents started going missing from nearby cities. At first it was once a week but soon it was every other day, they complained to the police but they never got the help they needed. Rumors began to spread it with the people from Moira, demons in the night who come from souls. The squad was instructed to move from one house to another, detaining anyone they found and asking the whereabouts of the three missing reconnaissance members. Torvik gestured towards the closest home, it was the furthest away from the town square, roughly a few hundred yards. Dealt 4 approached quietly, guns raised and still checking every direction. Snow masked their entrance, often making it hard to see more than fifty feet ahead. Lowell’s heart was beating out of his chest with the fear of not knowing what to expect was getting to him. No one in the squad knew how much danger they were in. After quickly surrounding the building, Lowell made sure to watch the back entrance as only three entered the front door. Torvik stopped as soon as he entered, the hallway only large enough to accommodate one person. Dried blood covered the walls, caked up from age with a single large trail leading down the corridor. Torvik gave the order as Mallory and Bridges followed behind him, raising their weapons as they pressed deeper. The snow had started to die down, giving a better sightline. Lowell stood near the back door, watching the village in the background. He began to wonder, how is this helping the world? They’re there to kill an innocent village full of people under the government’s dime. This isn’t justice, this is a massacre. His thoughts were loudly interrupted as a gunshot inside shook him back to reality, the back door to his left slammed open as a mysterious man covered in scraps of clothing, rushed through running towards the village. A hand covered his left shoulder, dark crimson blood spilling from the wound onto the white snow. Inside Torvik yelled towards Lowell; “Shoot that man now!” He didn’t know what to do, a mixture of fear and shock washed over his body. This is the moment he trained for but did he have the courage to pull the trigger? This wasn’t a faceless dummy like on the ranges, this was a real human being. Raising the rifle to his shoulder, aiming down his sights, wrapping his finger around the simple lever that could end a man's life, Lowell couldn’t. He sat there as the man kept running exhausted through the snow, now a couple hundred feet away from them. For once in his life, this isn't something he could do. Another gunshot rang out from the hut as Bridges ran out with the gun to his eye, the bullet found its home inside of the runner’s back as he fell to the soft white grave below him. Sanguine liquid poured from every orifice, tainting the ground around him. Lowell ran inside but stopped in his tracks from the sight before him, running back outside to throw up. The smell of cooking meat and gunpowder invaded his nostrils. There were human skulls, large dried chunks of skin, and other wildlife trophies hung up all around the main room. A makeshift dinner table in the center had plates piled with fingers, toes, and roasting in the fireplace is what can only be presumed, an entire human arm. Beside the table, a metal bucket was filled to the brim with watches, rings, earrings and entire chunks of hair. On the cold floor laid Torvik, a makeshift stone knife lodged deep in the side of his arm. Blood oozed from his arm, pooling on the floor just below him. His rifle was thrown on the floor during the encounter as he gripped his sidearm with his uninjured arm. Mallory tended to him, pulling the knife out before sterilizing and wrapping it. Raines rushed in from the front door, exclaiming upon seeing the situation; “What the fuck happened here?!” “We were telling him to get on the floor but he rushed us before we got a chance to shoot!” Mallory shakely yelled back while still wrapping the arm. “Fastest son of a bitch I’ve ever seen....” mumbled Torvik, taking a moment to collect his breath. “He wasn’t a normal man, his skin was black and had these nails like knives... You almost done with cleaning me up?” he barked at Mallory “Almost sir, I wouldn’t recommend using it though. The knife got in there real deep.” “You don’t tell me what to do, soldier, now help me up” demanded the Sergeant as he uses both of them to raise himself on his feet, wincing in pain. Lowell just stood outside watching them, contemplating his decision. The rest of the soldiers stood their ground in case of another threat. Limping outside, Torvic ordered two of the other members to search the place for any clues on what was happening as he leaned against the side of the hut. After a few minutes of searching they come out with two things in hand. On one hand they held the dogtags of two different reconnaissance members, both found in the metal bucket, answering the question they came in with. The other held a black covered book, blood covering entire chunks, on it wrote: “Will of the God” Torvic flipped through the pages, most were written in latin with pictures illustrating the acts they must commit. The images mostly consisted of humans eating and sacrificing each other, only things got different as the book went on. He called over Raines; “You know how to read latin, right soldier?” “Somewhat yeah, I took it in college and high school.” “Well figure out what this book is about then, and make it fast!” He handed the book to Raines as he began to slowly translate what the tomb demanded. Limping further from the hut, Torvik turned back questioned the whole unit: “Do you see that?” pointing towards the dead villager in the distance. “We waltzed into their house and they aren’t too happy about it. If you see someone not in uniform, shoot on sight. Do you understand me?!” “Yes, Sir!” the unit chanted back, including Lowell. Inside of the village, curious and hungry eyes peered toward the lone hut outside of town. Voices could be heard crying and calling each other, unbeknownst to the invaders of their home. Raines quickly called over the Sergeant, ready to share his findings with him. Everyone else is still on guard, looking for threats. “I think I know what’s going on here now.” Raines proudly claimed “Well spill it, soldier!” “It seems that the residents believe that through the flesh of others, Lucifer will remake them in his image and rather than Gods. Whatever that means. They do human sacrifices almost daily, the remains are divided and eaten among the villagers.” There was a moment of silence either from surprise, shock, fear, maybe all three. No one spoke until Bridgers yelled from inside: “What kind of twisted shit is that?” “I don’t know but they’ve been doing it for a very long time.” Raines responded “Private Lowell, radio the truck and ask them to send an SOS” Torvik prompted as he gestured towards him. “Yes, sir!” After fiddling with his radio for a while, tuned into the same frequency as the vehicle they arrived in. There was no response. Half a mile away, the two guards who had stayed to watch the truck were brutally ripped apart. The thick plate armor had been punctured in multiple places, wounds consistent with claws tearing into their flesh had caused massive internal damage. Blood splattered the inside cabin, freezing after prolonged contact with the freezing temperatures. Their heads were ripped off their bodies, nowhere in sight of the brutal killings. The radio answered the call with silence. “I can’t reach them, sir..” Lowell shivered “They must have gotten to them.” Torvik murmured under his breath “Alright boys, new plan. We search the houses till we find a way to send an SOS. We shoot whatever moves.” proposing to the group There was silence at the idea of it, worried glances shared between them. Even Raines shook his head but was the first to say; “We’ll follow you to hell and back, just say the word Sergeant” “That’s what I like to hear, let’s move it. Four looking forward and six watching behind us, we don’t know how many more there are so stay sharp.” As a unit, they pressed onward to the village square. Lowell, Raines, Torvik and Bridgers took the front, while Mallory and the rest of the unit looked back. This was their only chance and between all the ammo plus experience they had, they felt somewhat confident now that they knew what they were dealing with. Lowell on the other hand, was both terrified and oddly ready for what was going to happen. After seeing what he was against, he knew these aren’t people. They’re man eating monsters walking this earth. They pressed past the dead body from before, and got to the main central hub of the town. The front pushed to one of the larger homes, prayers being uttered and fingers crossed as Bridger prepared to breach it. Torvik gave the nod, each soldier raised their weapon in a direction surrounding them. It was mere seconds before they busted the door down that Mallory shouted, grabbing everyone’s attention. Directly behind them, one of the doors to a different house began to open. Slowly swinging open, the resident stepped out. Standing nearly eight feet tall, it’s skin was completely caked midnight black with no hair on any part of it. The eyes were much the same, there was no pupil or coloration. It was an abyss that stared back. Almost reaching the ground, its legs and arms were extended and lanky. Arms ended with razor sharp fingernails, sharper than the knives they brought with them, covered in blood and scraps of freshly torn skin . There was stillness, neither side wanted to act, so black beast just stared. It was Lowell that first decided to shoot out of his fear and desire to rid the earth of the horror, choosing to puncture it right between the eyes. His bullet rang through the quiet air, everyone watching the resident. The impact blew a hole clean through its head, black blood gushed out and turned into a steady stream. Chunks of its head splattered on nearby walls all while it stood unflinching. Following this, a grotesque grin creeped against its face, brandishing it’s countless rows of teeth. Thus, almost as if an unspoken order was given, the unit began to light up the defiance of God. Shooting until they heard the mechanical click of an empty magazine, entire slabs of meat being ripped away. Drenching the nearby surroundings in black ichor and casings, Delta 4 watched as it took everything they had to offer. Before them the devilish beast still stood with an entire arm vanished, large portions of its stomach and chest painted the snow black. Eyes still locked in on the squad of men, unrelenting and unblinking. Raines shouted to Torvik; “Sir, what do we do?” Another moment of silence filled the snowy air before he responded. “Run.” “Fine by me.” Raines looked around, noticing what he hadn't before. They were being watched. Most likely the observers were as strong as this one and probably faster so he had to think of a plan. “Everyone get to the church right now!” All the officers shared a quick glance at each other and Raines before each of them dropped their rifles and began to bolt for the grand stone doors of the monastery. Almost immediately, the deformed monstrosity let out a blood curdling roar into the chilly air. Like it was a dinner bell, the ones in hiding bursted in a sprint towards the intruders. They ranged from extremely tall to short as dogs and all caked black. Many ran on all fours in a gallop while others took great strides with their unnaturally long legs. At the front of the race was Raines, followed by Bridgers and Mallory that stayed neck and neck. Closely following was a good portion of the squad, with Lowell following behind and Torvik barely keeping up. A couple of the unit’s members stood still, either from fear or astonishment. After the rest began to run, the first resident slowly shuffled to the ones that stayed. Leaning down and getting as close to their faces as possible, letting out thick and foul breaths, it swiftly and cleanly wrapped its gigantic mouth around one of the soldiers head. Biting down, the hundreds of razor sharp teeth tore through the skin down to the skull before ripping it off completely. As if waking up from a trance, the other began to run but it was far too late for that. With one movement and swing of the only arm it had, the massive claw hit the officer and knocked him across the village with a force strong enough to pop on impact with another clay house. As they got closer, the main group got picked off in drive by hits. A shorter misshapen resident had massive muscle mass in both its arms and legs, due to this plus a jaw large enough to swallow a man whole, it reached the group before the rest. Running straight through the center of them, it sent two flying and grabbed one in its gigantic jaw. Another taller one that stood over 14 feet tall, reached down and grabbed a soldier before raising up and dropping him into the gaping abyss of its mouth. After Raines had barely made it inside, he beckoned the rest to hurry lest they be devoured too. Just as fast, Bridges and Mallory made it in simultaneously. Next came Lowell, with Torvik far behind due to his injury and considerable blood loss. Lowell shouted: “Hurry Sarg, we’ll hold the doors open just get here!” Exhausted and with the volley of black fiends soon collapsing on him, he did what he knew had to be done. “Close the doors already you idiot, find a way out of here and call in the calvary!” Torvik yelled back Unholstering the grenades from his vest, wincing in pain as he pulled the pin with his injured arm. Everyone inside knew what the plan was, Sarg wasn’t gonna make it. Bridgers grabbed Lowell from the back and pulled him away from the door while the other two slid the stone slabs closed. Tears streamed down Lowell’s face, blurring his vision as he cried: “He can still make it, he can still -” The gurgled pleas of Lowell were drowned out by the roar of an explosion, shaking the abbey at its foundation. Right before the explosion, Torvik gave the grenade a kiss as he closed his eyes, ready to eaten on the spot by multiple dog-like abominations. The fiery nova radiating from the sargent expanded outward, swallowing some of the residents with it, growing in size and power each time another one combusted. Torvik died with a smile on his face, knowing that even till death, he did everything possible to make his squad proud. Lowell was ready to be the soldier he knew he could be. After everything was over, entire chunks of creature littered the square, a thick black blanket of blood painted the snow and abbey. All that remains of the unit were surrounded by more monsters than they could ever imagine, who began to slam their whole body masses against the great stone doors. Raines, Mallory, and Bridgers all pressed back hoping the door would stand its own. Lowell looked up from his tears and got a grasp on what the interior looked like. The entryway was fairly small, roughly 7 or 8 feet wide and opened up into the main room which had bodies, heads, and more black humanoid figures hanging from the ceiling by ropes. Pews filled most the room that all faced a podum with another black bound book on it. To his right was a blood covered table, and underneath it was a bucket like the one they found in the house outside the village. Lowell desperately began to dig through it, his tears dried up as he began to whisper prayers to a God he didn’t believe in till now. A smile spread across his face as he pulled out the prize he was looking for, the long distance radio that the reconnaissance team brought with them. Wrapped around it was the third dog tag, confirming what they already knew. He desperately spoke his message, an SOS distress call from Delta 4. Raines looked back from his struggle, cracking a smile too and gave Lowell a complementary good job. All they had to do now was find a way to hideout until help came. Bridgers yelled through his teeth that the door wasn’t gonna hold, Rainers let a smile creep on his face as he told the other three to follow him, deeper into the heart of the godforsaken church.
A Response to Will Wilkinson's "The Useful Libertarian Idiocy of The Great Barrington Declaration"
Some of you may have seen Will Wilkinson wrote this unhinged article that’s been circulating on Twitter and Reddit. I thought about either making a long Twitter thread or responding to it in a comment on another post on this sub, but this is just so egregious I felt it deserved its own post. First paragraph he says:
“The dominant expert take on the Great Barrington proposal is that it blithely disregards the atrocious death toll that “herd immunity” strategies, such as the Declaration’s “focused protection” approach, are likely to produce. At the same time, the statement egregiously misrepresents the long-term damage the virus might inflict upon those it infects but doesn’t kill. And it seriously understates the danger of the virus to working-age adults.”
So right off the bat he ignores even the possibility that focused protection can lower the death toll. Of course he doesn’t feel this even needs addressing, because he believes himself to be a high priest merely pointing out blasphemy. But then he links to a study that supposedly shows the GBD “seriously understates the danger of the virus to working-age adults.” Sounds scary. Here’s the study: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.21.20217174v1 There are two immediate problems with this. The study acknowledges that the 25-44 age group in the U.S. has experienced the highest rates of excess mortality, but they fail to point out that, according to the latest CDC members, over 70% of those excess deaths are from causes other than COVID. Possibly this could change due to reporting delays, but the difference in the proportion of excess deaths attributable to COVID is stark between younger and older populations. Two, the study itself is simply comparing opioid overdoses to COVID deaths in three regions (11 states). It found “Combined, 2,450 COVID-19 deaths were recorded in these three regions during the pandemic period, compared to 2,445 opioid deaths during the same period of 2018.” But it gets worse. New York, New Jersey, Louisiana, and Arizona are included in the numbers, states with disproportionately high numbers of COVID deaths. In fact, the (unweighted) average death toll per 100k from COVID for the states used was ~80.2, whereas the national per capita death toll is ~69.2. This means the states used had a per capita death toll from COVID 15.8% higher than the national average. On the other hand, from the best available information I was able to find, the states used had (unweighted) an average death toll per 100k from opioid overdoses of ~11.7, compared to the national rate of 14.6, meaning their opioid death toll was 19.8% lower than the national average. (Edit: For those wondering, the true weighted COVID deaths and opioid overdoses for the entirety of the populations of those states are 76.9 and 9.5 per 100k respectively. So slightly lower deaths than the raw per capita average of those states, but fewer opioid overdoses as well, so same principle. 35% fewer overdoses and 11% higher deaths.) Another way of framing this study, then, would be to say that opioid overdoses among 25-44 year-olds are keeping pace with COVID deaths even in regions with higher than average COVID deaths and lower than average opioid deaths. And in fact New York and New Jersey have experienced COVID death tolls higher than just about anywhere in the entire world. This is a totally bizarre study to cite to “prove” the GBD understates the harms to working-age young people.
The idea that we can protect the vulnerable through a strategy that cheers on soaring rates of infection is dumbfounding. It seems that the only way to protect the elderly, immunocompromised, and otherwise at-risk while simultaneously encouraging the spread of infection through the community would be to seal them off from the rest of the population, which simply isn’t possible, practically or politically.
Of course, what is practical is sealing off the entire population indefinitely from a virus, no pragmatic or political concerns there.
Consider a single mom, Maria, with an autoimmune problem (rheumatoid arthritis, say) who needs to take an immunosuppressant to function as a breadwinner and a parent. Surely it’s better for the whole family if the kids are attending school in the flesh. That means that Maria can support her family by continuing to clean hotel rooms. But now suppose everything simply returns to normal with the conscious aim of getting the bulk of the population infected. How do we protect Maria? She certainly won’t be able to go to work at the hotel to support her kids. And it becomes very likely that her kids will get infected at school, which may not harm them, but could pose a mortal risk to her. In that case, who will take care of them? How will they afford groceries?
We’ve all heard this before. “Uhh, but have you considered this hypothetical scenario I just made up 30 seconds ago? Yeah, checkmate Stanford, Harvard, and Oxford.” For one, there is no “conscious aim” of getting the bulk of the population infected. Herd immunity is a happy byproduct of infections, but even if it weren’t, it would still make more sense to seal off only some of the population until a vaccine. But this scenario doesn’t even make sense. This person wants to take a general suppression approach, but still wants schools and hotels open? And not only open, but generating sufficient revenue to guarantee the employment of hotel maids? Wouldn’t a general suppression approach require fairly extensive travel restrictions? Otherwise I don’t even know what we’re talking about in terms of an alternative policy, unless the plan is to contact trace the virus out of existence. But of course the response is that, should “Maria” be working in a high-risk setting, we could simply extend her unemployment benefits, which would be far cheaper than shutting down the economy indefinitely. As for her children, they could either be allowed to learn virtually (less than ideal), or have some sort of pod for in-person learning in a separate area of the school along with other children who are at-risk or have family members at risk. Also, Lockdown proponents seem to be under this illusion that we can take a general suppression approach and also keep schools open. Well I’m in Massachusetts (which he praises later in the article) where infection rates are extremely low, and they just shut down our town’s high school for five cases out of 1,500 students. So if even places he thinks are “doing it right” are panicking and closing schools, I have no idea why he thinks at-risk children would be able to attend school in-person all year with Team Apocalypse in charge.
Reflecting on cases like these, which could be multiplied indefinitely, the proposal comes to seem pointless. Nobody is going to do this. What’s even the idea here? That a governor or mayor or city council will one day announce that it is now officially a Great Barrington “focused protection” jurisdiction and everyone will just shout “Hurrah!” and sprint to the nearest massage parlor or high step it to the hoe down whilst Maria and the old folks across the street and the neighbor kid with a rare lymphatic disorder …. What?
Not run to the nearest massage parlor. And you don’t “announce” you’re a “Great Barrington” jurisdiction, you simply implement policies consistent with a focused protection approach. I’m continuously amazed by this guy’s inability to imagine even the most basic and straight-forward scenarios. You just don’t send in the police to shut down massage parlors, and people go get massages.
They’re issued impermeable bubbles? We all know that nobody’s getting a taxpayer-funded bubble. And very few of us are willing to simply allow the virus to cull the weak. Which is why next to nobody’s going to try the Great Barrington strategy. And if somebody does try it, it obviously can’t work.
Oh well since you put it that way. And no they’re not issued impermeable bubbles. There are these things called houses. They have walls the virus cannot get through.
Young low-risk adults should work normally, rather than from home,” the Declaration’s authors argue. “Restaurants and other businesses should open. Arts, music, sport and other cultural activities should resume.” This is all very easy to say! But you can’t believe most people are actually going to go along with this amid soaring infection rates unless you think people are generally a bunch of amoral idiots.
So then what’s the problem with opening them?
I’m no angel, but it’s nevertheless important to me, as a matter of elementary moral duty, to avoid becoming a link in a chain of viral transmission that could kill somebody.
Yeah that’s the whole point of the declaration, to break the chain between vulnerable and non-vulnerable.
Lots of folks who get sick from the coronavirus take months to recover. There are widespread reports of lingering neurological effects. The virus seems to cause lasting damage to the hearts and lungs of many who get infected, including in those who showed no symptoms. John Barry notes that “One recent study of 100 recovered adults found that 78 of them showed signs of heart damage. We have no idea whether this damage will cut years from their lives or affect their quality of life.
Always beware of anyone who uses language like “there are widespread reports of” or “lots of folks.” They’re saying this because they’re cherrypicking outliers, which there always will seem to be “a lot of” in a population of over 300 million people. As far as the “showing signs of heart damage,” there’s a reason he presented it without any other context. He’s trying to make it sound as if the number went from 0 to 78. Professor and cardiologist Darrel Francis did a whole thread on the glaring statistical errors in the initial study. And, as it turns out, after corrections were made there was not a statistically significant difference in COVID patients and controls of a similar health status. Whoops. Also there are several problems with this type of fear-mongering. For one, these numbers are often presented by journalists with no medical training. People hear “heart, brain, lungs, liver, kidney” and freak out. But there is never any discussion of actual severity or permanency of these issues, the latter of which we can’t even know at this point. Team Apocalypse treat this uncertainty as if it’s evidence in favor of lockdowns, but there’s no reason for that to be the case when we do have strong evidence of the negative health effects of those policies. And additionally we don’t obsessively scan the lungs/hearts/brains of flu patients without reason, so we barely have any basis for comparison other than knowing they occur with some level of frequency with other respiratory illnesses. And look, I can link to an article with a super spooky description too! This study shows 48% of elite high-endurance athletes showed myocardial inflammation following a common cold!
So mere personal prudence is enough to lead many of us to decline invitations to weddings, retire our gym memberships, and eschew dine-in restaurants. It’s enough to keep managers and business owners from calling their workers back to the office. Now add a functioning moral compass to mix. In that case, a moderate level of entirely voluntary self-isolation and avoidance of un-distanced and/or mask-free social situations becomes practically inevitable... Here in Iowa, we’ve never had an official lockdown, and we’ve had very, very few restrictions of any kind. Nobody’s stopping anybody from going to the movies, but nobody goes to the movies. Restaurants are open, but there aren’t many people in them.
So now he’s going to tell us that, hey lockdowns don’t matter anyway, because this is all completely voluntary!
It’s hard to tell the practical difference between the Great Barrington approach and Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds’ active hostility to city-level restrictions, mask mandates, and remote schooling. Yet it’s completely obvious, if you live here, that this approach hasn’t put us any nearer to “normal.” The governor’s aggressively laissez faire approach has delivered some of the country’s highest infection rates, but with very few mitigating economic benefits.
Oh, except it...does make a difference? Apparently lockdowns are all benefit and no cost! Sounds like great news, right? Well let’s just check to make sure Iowa is actually doing just as bad, if not worse, than their more lockdown-prone neighbors. Iowa’s COVID deaths per 100k: 54 Michigan’s COVID deaths per 100k: 77 Illinois’s COVID deaths per 100k: 78 https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/ Well this is awkward, I was wondering why he didn’t link to any sources on that claim. But surely the economic benefit must be negligible to non-existent given the confidence with which he writes. Iowa’s unemployment rate: 4.7% (5th lowest in the country) Michigan’s unemployment rate: 8.5% (9th highest in the country) Illinois’s unemployment rate: 10.2% (5th highest in the country) https://www.bls.gov/web/laus/laumstrk.htm Hmm, guess not. It’s almost like he’s just making stuff up in hopes nobody takes the 30 seconds it requires to google his claims.
I recently visited Massachusetts, which has responded to the pandemic far more aggressively and competently than Iowa has. It now has one of the lowest infection rates in the country, which is why economic and social life there was notably more active and normal than it is here in plague-ridden, anything-goes Iowa. This is not hard to understand. If people don’t feel safe, they won’t go shopping.
Oh good he’s talking about my home state, so before even opening google I can tell you how full of it he is. He claims Massachusetts responded “competently.” Deaths per 100k in Massachusetts? 144. That’s third-highest in the country and well over double the per capita COVID death rate in Sweden. And why is our death toll so high? Here’s a hint: ⅔ of our deaths have occurred in nursing homes and long-term care facilities. It’s actually impossible to even fathom how the government could have handled this less competently. Of course “competent” to Team Apocalypse just means implementing policies that are arbitrary, authoritarian, and ritualistic in nature, so I suppose it’s not surprising the whole article seems nonsensical to those of us who still speak normal English. And what about our economy? Since our economic and social life is so much more active and normal than “plague-ridden” Iowa, this must be reflected in the numbers, right? Oh, nope, 9.6% unemployment, 6th-highest in the country (although thankfully down from July when we were number one). Keep in mind our epidemic curve peaked in April and has been flat for months at this point, yet we still have close to a 10% unemployment rate. Finally, is there any evidence that Massachusetts is more active and normal than Iowa? Well we have mobility data. Massachusetts Retail Relative to Baseline: -18% Iowa Retail Relative to Baseline: -9% Massachusetts Grocery and Pharmacy: -10% Iowa Grocery and Pharmacy: +11% In fact by every metric Iowa is either equally active or more active than Massachusetts, except for visits to parks (which is only because they’re going elsewhere, since the residential time is equal between the two states.) (https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/2020-10-25_US_Massachusetts_Mobility_Report_en.pdf) (https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/2020-10-25_US_Iowa_Mobility_Report_en.pdf)
This body of research includes studies like this recent NBER working paper, which takes advantage of huge sets of cell phone location data to confirm that official stay-at-home orders had almost nothing to do with the huge drop in mobility that began in late February and early March. A bit later, there was modest divergence in the rate at which mobility declined between places that had no stay-at-home order, places that issued orders early, and places that issued them late. But it’s evident from the data, illustrated in the chart below, that the slowdown of social and economic life started around same time everywhere regardless of official “shutdown status,” that the slackening of social and economic life reached its nadir at the same time everywhere, and the partial thaw proceeded at about the same pace.
Ah, so now he’s comfortable discussing mobility data. Yes, it’s true that in the initial weeks of the pandemic everyone was sufficiently terrified that we all hid away in our homes. This is because we were presented with inaccurate models and scary graphs showing an explosion of hospital bed requirements, with a red line hovering one millimeter above the x-axis showing hospital capacity. We were also told (lied to) that this would be temporary and last no longer than a few weeks, and at the time there was no pandemic fatigue. But we do have a way of evaluating his claim. His hypothesis is that people voluntarily isolate once cases begin to rise. The virus did not sweep through the U.S. all at once, it arrived in distinct epidemic waves. That means we should see mobility trends fall in accordance with each subsequent wave. The Sun Belt had their wave over the summer. Do we see a drop in mobility similar to what we saw in March? https://ourworldindata.org/covid-mobility-trends Nope, doesn’t look like it. Mobility in the U.S. starts rising again in April and pretty clearly stabilizes over the summer. It’s almost like people behave differently when presented with new information.
Our infection rate is relatively high here in Iowa. Still, ordinary economic and social life in most respects remains on pause or in low-power mode, so there’s approximately zero chance we’ll get anywhere near herd immunity before a vaccine materializes. There will be no “protection conferred upon the vulnerable by those who have built up herd immunity,” as the Declaration puts it, because we’re not going to get to pre-vaccine herd immunity. And that’s not because anything resembling a “lockdown policy” has been imposed. The bars downtown werepackedlast Saturday with heedless undergrads cheering at the top of their lungs for the Hawkeyes. They’re simply trapping the vulnerable in their houses, stripping them of the freedom to safely undertake activities far more necessary and fundamental than watching the game in a drunken horde. The only reward we’re getting for our laxity is needless fear and death.
Wait a minute, what? Didn’t this guy just say Iowa was “plague-ridden” and that “Restaurants are open, but there aren’t many people in them?” Didn’t he just say that Massachusetts was “more normal and active” than Iowa? We aren’t even allowed to have bars open until a vaccine, nevermind packing in college kids to watch a football game. Forget about moving the goalposts over a matter of months, Team Apocalypse can’t even keep their story straight in the time it takes them to get up and get a cup of coffee. As far as the herd immunity threshold, that’s a much more complicated issue. It’s absurd to say we’re “not going to get to pre-vaccine herd immunity,” when we don’t even know what the infection rate has to be to reach it, nor do we know how long it will take to get a vaccine. And no, it’s not a matter of 1-(1/R0) (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160762v2, https://science.sciencemag.org/content/369/6505/846.full) as population heterogeneity and partial resistance/pre-existing immunity also play a role. There is some interesting pattern in which rates seem to fall at around 15-20% antibody prevalence, but even this is difficult to estimate given waning antibodies. (Shockingly, a quick ctrl+f for Sweden yielded no results /s.) He also demonstrates a common misconception about herd immunity, which is that it is both binary and a fixed number. Even some immunity is still a benefit, and in some cases it can be a large one.
So what does any of this have to do with the libertarianism of AIER? Well, libertarians need to believe that, in this case and many others, a policy of doing nothing will work out because they think that government-led efforts (other than the protection of property rights) rarely succeed in improving our lives or securing our freedom.
This is quite ironic because the opposite is even more true. Team Apocalypse has an absolute religious devotion to the state and its ability to shape human behavior and society as a whole. Their entire worldview is motivated by a sick fetish for utopia. However, if you seriously talk to any of the supporters of the GBD, almost all of their solutions to shifting the burden of infection onto the less vulnerable involve government action, it’s just that it’s action that is less destructive and easier to implement because it doesn’t require micromanaging the movements of every citizen in the country for indefinite periods of time.
I’d guess that’s why the authors and advocates of the Declaration studiously ignore actual patterns of individual agency easily observable in places, like Iowa, which have very few restrictions. If they allowed themselves to pay attention, they’d see that the dismal half-life of pandemic America is due more to the invisible hand than the state’s whip hand.
Again, this is one paragraph after he just said downtown bars were recently packed with college students on a Saturday.
You might find yourself struggling to deny that the state’s authority can solve otherwise unsolvable collective action problems, supply otherwise unsuppliable public goods, and insure us against otherwise uninsurable risks. You might then become tempted to conclude that not only are we materially better off when the state does all that stuff, we’re also in many respects more free...That’s why a proposal released by the libertarian AIER simply can’t be one that accepts that our Covid woes result mainly from millions of voluntary acts of individual prudence and moral duty rather than “government shutdowns.”
At the risk of belaboring this point, this whole section in the piece is totally confused and incoherent. He again cannot decide the actual impact of government policy. He says voluntary actions can make us less free, and government action can make us more free. But also, the effects of lockdowns are almost entirely due to voluntary distancing. But then again, Iowa is doing much worse than Massachusetts, which took an aggressive lockdown approach, which is why they’re more free. Starting to notice a pattern?
I’ve arguedrepeatedly that we easily could have done what they did to similar effect. We could have followed our own pre-existing pandemic control plans and implemented a large-scale testing, contact tracing, and supported isolation program. We could have saved a medium-sized city’s worth of American lives as we moved swiftly toward the return of something resembling normal.
For context he’s talking about New Zealand, which is of course a completely ridiculous comparison. But he says we should have “followed our own pre-existing pandemic control plans and implemented a large-scale testing, contact tracing, and supported isolation program.” Ok well let’s look at our pre-existing pandemic control plan. According to the CDC, once a pandemic is declared “Patient isolation and tracing and quarantine of contacts should cease, as such measures will no longer be feasible or useful.” Theoretically if you entirely seal off your border and engage in rigorous contact tracing very early on you may be able to stop an outbreak, but it isn’t clear when the virus even first arrived in the U.S. We’re told that we should have been able to emulate South Korea (despite no other country being able to test on the scale South Korea did). But is it true South Korea stopped the virus in its tracks through contact tracing? “Although this study was conducted with a small size and unrepresentative sample, our finding suggests that the number of undiagnosed missing cases may be at least ten-fold higher than the total number of confirmed cases based on PCR testing.” And that also seems consistent with this study, which indicates that, between January and March, when South Korea was supposedly “taking the virus seriously,” contact tracers were only able to identify 0.16 out-of-household positive contacts per index case, which seems too low to significantly bend their curve, nevermind bring cases down to near 0. Let’s look at Germany, which he also cites as an example worth following. The study found 1.3% of Germany had detectable antibodies, but the number of confirmed cases was 200,436. This means there is an undercounting of cases by at least a factor above 5.3. Oh, and cases in Germany are now spiking along with the rest of Europe, and they just announced another partial lockdown. Unfortunate timing for Will. And here’s the dirty secret about contact tracing: basically every country has tried it in one way or another. https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-07-30/spains-covid-19-contact-tracers-all-our-energy-is-being-put-into-containing-the-coronavirus.htmlhttps://www.zdnet.com/article/contact-tracing-italys-open-source-app-finally-lands-taking-the-google-apple-model/ Many European countries tried using apps to improve efficiency, but they were often buggy and had low usage rates amidst privacy concerns. But this is the Team Apocalypse M.O. They wait to see which countries have low case rates and then smugly post articles about how we could be just like them if we gave up our backwards, individualist predilections. And since every country has taken some measures the Team Apocalypse have been demanding we implement (or just implement harder), they’ll find some reason to condescendingly lecture us about how we’re just not “following the science.” And if those countries suddenly see a spike in cases? Well, that will all get memory-holed and they’ll find their new pet example to badger us about. Conclusion/TL;DR: This is the worst article I have on the topic of the Great Barrington Declaration, and I would even say COVID in general. He links to studies that are either irrelevant or prove the opposite point he’s trying to make, he constantly contradicts himself with respect to the role government intervention has played in the effects of the response to the virus, and he relies on anecdotes or personal experience when the data clearly doesn’t support his argument. In fact it is not an argument at all, it is an extremely confused diatribe against (what he perceives to be) libertarianism. This article is a total embarrassment and never should have seen the light of day.
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Craziest Plays In College Football History - YouTube
Checkout DROPOUT: https://bit.ly/2xJqzRX It's our new ad-free, uncensored, subscription video service! The cast you love in brand new, exclusive series! Original and funny videos from CollegeHumor ... Re-edited at a bigger size and including previously deleted scenes!ALL BODY HAIR SHAVED!!! Don't forget to rate and comment! I talk more about this festival... Shaun and Mike talk about and give their predictions for week 13 of the 2019 college football season. Games picked this week are:Texas vs BaylorTCU vs Oklaho... Visit my site for comprehensive breakdowns of all of the bets and strategies you see. Also read the latest football betting blog articles:www.topfootballbett... About Press Copyright Contact us Creators Advertise Developers Terms Privacy Policy & Safety How YouTube works Test new features Press Copyright Contact us Creators ... Part 2: https://youtu.be/5a4znmTsft0The craziest, most unbelievable, and best plays in College Football History. These are some of my favorite plays and they... Hope you like it! Sorry if your team isn't in there. Find more on .More of Jenn Aniston's legs.Pantyhose Feet.video courtesy : goto this site and buy latest 1080p videos and HD pictures of your favorite leg mod... Daily Free Sports Picks & the Best Expert Betting Predictions. Vernon Croy has been providing the best free sports picks and premium sports betting tips on a daily basis since 1999. Vernon Croy's ... Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube.
